Muaj ntau lub teb chaws pib teeb tsa cov hom phiaj tseem ceeb rau lub zog hydrogen, thiab qee qhov kev nqis peev tab tom tsom mus rau kev tsim cov thev naus laus zis hydrogen ntsuab. EU thiab Tuam Tshoj yog tus thawj coj ntawm txoj kev loj hlob no, nrhiav kev zoo dua hauv thev naus laus zis thiab kev tsim kho vaj tse. Lub caij no, Nyiv Pooj, Kaus Lim Qab Teb, Fabkis, Lub Tebchaws Yelemees, Netherlands, New Zealand thiab Australia tau tshaj tawm cov tswv yim zog hydrogen thiab tsim cov phiaj xwm sim txij li xyoo 2017. Xyoo 2021, EU tau tshaj tawm qhov yuav tsum tau ua rau lub zog hydrogen, thov kom nce lub peev xwm ua haujlwm ntawm kev tsim hydrogen hauv cov hlwb electrolytic mus rau 6GW los ntawm 2024 los ntawm kev cia siab rau cua thiab lub zog hnub ci, thiab mus rau 40GW los ntawm 2030, lub peev xwm ntawm kev tsim hydrogen hauv EU yuav raug nce mus rau 40GW los ntawm ntxiv 40GW sab nraum EU.
Ib yam li txhua yam thev naus laus zis tshiab, hydrogen ntsuab tab tom hloov ntawm kev tshawb fawb thiab kev txhim kho thawj zaug mus rau kev txhim kho kev lag luam tseem ceeb, ua rau cov nqi qis dua thiab ua kom zoo dua hauv kev tsim qauv, kev tsim kho thiab kev teeb tsa. Hydrogen ntsuab LCOH muaj peb yam khoom: tus nqi ntawm lub cell electrolytic, tus nqi hluav taws xob rov ua dua tshiab thiab lwm yam nqi khiav lag luam. Feem ntau, tus nqi ntawm lub cell electrolytic suav txog li 20% ~ 25% ntawm hydrogen ntsuab LCOH, thiab feem ntau ntawm hluav taws xob (70% ~ 75%). Cov nqi khiav lag luam me me, feem ntau tsawg dua 5%.
Thoob ntiaj teb, tus nqi ntawm lub zog rov ua dua tshiab (feem ntau yog lub hnub ci thiab cua) tau poob qis heev hauv 30 xyoo dhau los, thiab nws cov nqi zog sib npaug (LCOE) tam sim no ze rau lub zog hluav taws xob thee ($ 30-50 / MWh), ua rau cov khoom siv rov ua dua tshiab sib tw ntau dua yav tom ntej. Cov nqi zog rov ua dua tshiab txuas ntxiv poob qis 10% hauv ib xyoos, thiab txog li xyoo 2030 cov nqi zog rov ua dua tshiab yuav ncav cuag li $ 20 / MWh. Cov nqi khiav lag luam tsis tuaj yeem txo qis ntau, tab sis cov nqi ntawm lub xov tooj ntawm tes tuaj yeem txo qis thiab cov nqi kawm zoo sib xws rau cov xov tooj ntawm tes zoo li lub zog hnub ci lossis cua.
Lub hnub ci PV tau tsim nyob rau xyoo 1970 thiab tus nqi ntawm lub hnub ci PV LCoEs hauv xyoo 2010 yog nyob ib ncig ntawm $ 500 / MWh. Lub hnub ci PV LCOE tau txo qis ntau txij li xyoo 2010 thiab tam sim no yog $ 30 txog $ 50 / MWh. Muab hais tias electrolytic cell technology zoo ib yam li lub benchmark kev lag luam rau kev tsim lub hnub ci photovoltaic cell, txij li xyoo 2020-2030, electrolytic cell technology yuav ua raws li txoj kev zoo sib xws li lub hnub ci photovoltaic cells hauv cov nqe lus ntawm tus nqi ib chav. Tib lub sijhawm, LCOE rau cua tau poob qis ntau dhau kaum xyoo dhau los, tab sis los ntawm tus nqi me dua (kwv yees li 50 feem pua ntawm ntug dej hiav txwv thiab 60 feem pua ntawm ntug dej hiav txwv).
Peb lub teb chaws siv cov khoom siv hluav taws xob rov ua dua tshiab (xws li lub zog cua, photovoltaic, hydropower) rau kev tsim cov dej electrolytic hydrogen, thaum tus nqi hluav taws xob raug tswj hwm hauv 0.25 yuan / kWh hauv qab no, tus nqi tsim hydrogen muaj kev lag luam zoo (15.3 ~ 20.9 yuan / kg). Cov ntsuas kev siv tshuab thiab kev lag luam ntawm alkaline electrolysis thiab PEM electrolysis hydrogen ntau lawm tau qhia hauv Rooj 1.
Txoj kev xam tus nqi ntawm kev tsim cov hydrogen electrolytic tau qhia nyob rau hauv cov qauv (1) thiab (2). LCOE = tus nqi ruaj khov / (cov khoom tsim hydrogen x lub neej) + tus nqi ua haujlwm (1) Tus nqi ua haujlwm = kev siv hluav taws xob ntawm cov khoom tsim hydrogen x tus nqi hluav taws xob + tus nqi dej + tus nqi kho khoom siv (2) Siv cov haujlwm electrolysis alkaline thiab PEM electrolysis (1000 Nm3 / h) ua piv txwv, xav tias tag nrho lub neej ntawm cov haujlwm yog 20 xyoo thiab lub neej ua haujlwm yog 9 × 104h. Tus nqi ruaj khov ntawm pob electrolytic cell, cov cuab yeej ntxuav hydrogen, tus nqi khoom siv, tus nqi tsim kho pej xeem, tus nqi kev pabcuam teeb tsa thiab lwm yam khoom tau suav ntawm 0.3 yuan / kWh rau electrolysis. Kev sib piv tus nqi tau qhia nyob rau hauv Rooj 2.
Piv nrog rau lwm txoj kev tsim hydrogen, yog tias tus nqi hluav taws xob ntawm lub zog rov ua dua tshiab qis dua 0.25 yuan / kWh, tus nqi ntawm hydrogen ntsuab tuaj yeem txo qis mus txog li 15 yuan / kg, uas pib muaj qhov zoo dua. Hauv cov ntsiab lus ntawm carbon neutrality, nrog rau kev txo qis ntawm cov nqi hluav taws xob rov ua dua tshiab, kev txhim kho loj ntawm cov haujlwm tsim hydrogen, kev txo qis ntawm kev siv hluav taws xob electrolytic cell thiab cov nqi peev, thiab kev taw qhia ntawm cov se carbon thiab lwm yam cai, txoj kev ntawm kev txo qis ntawm cov nqi hydrogen ntsuab yuav maj mam meej. Tib lub sijhawm, vim tias kev tsim hydrogen los ntawm cov chaw siv hluav taws xob ib txwm yuav sib xyaw nrog ntau yam tsis huv xws li carbon, sulfur thiab chlorine, thiab tus nqi ntawm kev ntxuav superimposed thiab CCUS, tus nqi tsim khoom tiag tiag yuav tshaj 20 yuan / kg.
Lub sijhawm tshaj tawm: Lub Ob Hlis-06-2023