1. Ci gaban masana'antar ƙarfe yana haifar da ƙaruwar buƙatar lantarki ta graphite a duniya
1.1 taƙaitaccen gabatarwar graphite electrode
Electrode na Graphitewani nau'in kayan aiki ne na graphite wanda ke jure wa zafin jiki mai yawa. Wani nau'in kayan aiki ne mai jure wa zafin jiki mai zafi, wanda ake yi ta hanyar cire kayan aiki, niƙa foda, haɗawa, haɗawa, ƙirƙirarwa, yin burodi, sanyaya, graphitization da sarrafa injina, wanda ake kira electrode na graphite na wucin gadi (electrode graphite) don bambanta daga amfani da sama. Duk da haka, graphite lantarki ne na halitta wanda aka shirya daga kayan aiki. Elektrode na graphite na iya gudanar da wutar lantarki da samar da wutar lantarki, don haka yana narkewa baƙin ƙarfe ko wasu kayan aiki a cikin tanderun fashewa don samar da ƙarfe da sauran kayayyakin ƙarfe, galibi ana amfani da su a cikin samar da ƙarfe. Elektrode na graphite wani nau'in abu ne mai ƙarancin juriya da juriya ga yanayin zafi a cikin tanderun baka. Babban halayen samar da electrode na graphite sune dogon zagayowar samarwa (yawanci yana ɗaukar watanni uku zuwa biyar), yawan amfani da wutar lantarki da kuma tsarin samarwa mai rikitarwa.
Kayan da ake amfani da su a masana'antar lantarki ta graphite galibi sune man fetur da kuma allurar coke, kuma kayan da ake amfani da su a yanzu suna da babban kaso na farashin samar da lantarki ta graphite, wanda ya kai sama da kashi 65%, saboda har yanzu akwai babban gibi tsakanin fasahar samar da allurar coke ta kasar Sin da fasaharta idan aka kwatanta da Amurka da Japan, ingancin allurar coke ta cikin gida yana da wuya a tabbatar da shi, don haka har yanzu kasar Sin ta dogara sosai kan shigo da allurar coke mai inganci. A shekarar 2018, jimillar wadatar da ake samu a kasuwar allurar coke a kasar Sin ta kai tan 418000, kuma shigo da allurar coke a kasar Sin ya kai tan 218000, wanda ya kai sama da kashi 50%; babban amfani da lantarki ta graphite shine yin karfe a cikin wutar lantarki.
Rarrabawar da aka saba yi ta lantarki mai siffar graphite ya dogara ne akan halayen zahiri da sinadarai na samfuran da aka gama. A ƙarƙashin wannan ma'aunin rarrabuwa, ana iya raba lantarki mai siffar graphite zuwa lantarki mai ƙarfin graphite na yau da kullun, lantarki mai ƙarfin graphite mai ƙarfin gaske da lantarki mai ƙarfin gaske. Lambobin graphite masu ƙarfin daban-daban sun bambanta a cikin kayan aiki, juriyar lantarki, modulus na roba, ƙarfin lanƙwasa, coefficient na faɗaɗa zafi, yawan wutar lantarki da aka yarda da shi da filayen aikace-aikace.
1.2. Sharhi kan tarihin ci gaban na'urar lantarki ta graphite a China
Ana amfani da na'urar lantarki ta Graphite galibi a aikin narkar da ƙarfe da ƙarfe. Ci gaban masana'antar lantarki ta Graphite ta China ya yi daidai da tsarin zamani na masana'antar ƙarfe da ƙarfe ta China. Na'urar lantarki ta Graphite a China ta fara ne a shekarun 1950, kuma ta fuskanci matakai uku tun lokacin da aka haife ta.
Ana sa ran kasuwar lantarki ta graphite za ta koma baya a shekarar 2021. A rabin farko na shekarar 2020, sakamakon annobar da ta shafi, bukatar cikin gida ta ragu sosai, jinkirin yin odar kayayyaki daga ƙasashen waje, kuma adadi mai yawa na hanyoyin samun kayayyaki sun shafi kasuwar cikin gida. A watan Fabrairun 2020, farashin lantarki ta graphite ya tashi na ɗan gajeren lokaci, amma ba da daɗewa ba yaƙin farashi ya tsananta. Ana sa ran cewa tare da farfaɗowar kasuwannin cikin gida da na waje da kuma ci gaban narkar da wutar lantarki a ƙarƙashin manufar rage gurɓatar carbon ta cikin gida, ana sa ran kasuwar lantarki ta graphite za ta koma baya. Tun daga shekarar 2020, tare da raguwar farashin lantarki ta graphite kuma tana da tabbas, buƙatar lantarki ta graphite ta cikin gida don yin ƙarfe ta EAF tana ƙaruwa a hankali, kuma yawan fitar da lantarki ta graphite mai ƙarfin gaske yana ƙaruwa a hankali, yawan kasuwar masana'antar lantarki ta graphite ta China zai ƙaru a hankali, kuma masana'antar za ta girma a hankali.
2. Ana sa ran tsarin wadata da buƙata na lantarkin graphite zai koma baya
2.1. Sauyin farashin graphite electrode na duniya ya yi yawa sosai
Daga shekarar 2014 zuwa 2016, saboda raguwar buƙatar da ake da ita a kasuwa, kasuwar lantarki ta graphite ta duniya ta ragu, kuma farashin lantarki ta graphite ya kasance ƙasa. A matsayin babban kayan albarkatun lantarki na graphite electrode, farashin allurar coke ya faɗi zuwa $562.2 a kowace tan a shekarar 2016. Ganin cewa China ita ce ke shigo da allurar coke, buƙatar China tana da tasiri sosai kan farashin allurar coke a wajen China. Ganin cewa ƙarfin masana'antun lantarki na graphite ya faɗi ƙasa da layin farashin masana'antu a shekarar 2016, ƙimar jama'a ta kai ga ƙarancin matsayi. A shekarar 2017, an soke tanderun mita na matsakaicin ƙarfin ƙarfe na Di Tiao, kuma adadi mai yawa na baƙin ƙarfe ya shiga cikin tanderun ƙarfe, wanda ya haifar da ƙaruwar buƙatar masana'antar lantarki ta graphite a China a rabin na biyu na 2017. Ƙaruwar buƙatar lantarki ta graphite ya sa farashin allurar coke ya tashi sosai a shekarar 2017, kuma ya kai dala Amurka $3769.9 a kowace tan a shekarar 2019, wanda ya ninka sau 5.7 idan aka kwatanta da shekarar 2016.
A cikin 'yan shekarun nan, ɓangaren manufofin cikin gida yana tallafawa da kuma jagorantar aikin ƙarfe na EAF na ɗan gajeren lokaci maimakon ƙarfe mai canzawa, wanda ya haɓaka ƙaruwar buƙatar lantarki mai siffar graphite a masana'antar ƙarfe ta China. Tun daga shekarar 2017, kasuwar ƙarfe ta EAF ta farfaɗo, wanda ya haifar da ƙarancin wadatar lantarki mai siffar graphite a duniya. Bukatar lantarki mai siffar graphite a wajen China ta tashi sosai a shekarar 2017 kuma farashin ya kai matakin da ya fi kowanne. Tun daga lokacin, saboda yawan saka hannun jari, samarwa da siye, kasuwa tana da hannun jari da yawa, kuma matsakaicin farashin lantarki mai siffar graphite ya faɗi a shekarar 2019. A shekarar 2019, farashin lantarki mai siffar graphite uhhp ya kasance mai karko a kan dala $8824.0 a kowace tan, amma ya kasance mafi girma fiye da farashin da aka taɓa samu a baya kafin shekarar 2016.
A rabin farko na shekarar 2020, COVID-19 ya haifar da ƙarin raguwa a farashin sayar da electrodes na graphite, kuma farashin coke na allurar gida ya faɗi daga yuan 8000 / tan zuwa yuan 4500 / tan a ƙarshen watan Agusta, ko kuma 43.75%. Farashin samar da allurar coke a China shine yuan 5000-6000 / tan, kuma yawancin masana'antun suna ƙasa da ma'aunin riba da asara. Tare da farfaɗowar tattalin arziki, samarwa da tallan electrodes na graphite a China sun inganta tun daga watan Agusta, an ci gaba da samun ƙimar fara amfani da ƙarfe na tanderu mai amfani da wutar lantarki da kashi 65%, sha'awar masana'antun ƙarfe don siyan electrodes na graphite ya tashi, kuma jerin binciken kasuwa don fitarwa ya ƙaru a hankali. Farashin electrodes na graphite shi ma yana ƙaruwa tun daga watan Satumba na 2020. Farashin electrodes na graphite gabaɗaya ya ƙaru da yuan 500-1500 / tan, kuma farashin fitarwa ya ƙaru sosai.
Tun daga shekarar 2021, sakamakon annobar da ta shafi lardin Hebei, an rufe yawancin masana'antun lantarki na graphite kuma ana kula da motocin sufuri sosai, kuma ba za a iya cinikin electrodes na graphite na gida yadda ya kamata ba. Farashin kayayyakin yau da kullun da masu ƙarfi a kasuwar electrodes na graphite na cikin gida ya tashi. Farashin da aka fi amfani da shi na uhp450mm tare da kashi 30% na allurar coke a kasuwa shine yuan 15-15500 / tan, kuma farashin da aka fi amfani da shi na uhp600mm shine yuan 185-19500 / tan, daga yuan 500-2000 / tan. Farashin kayan masarufi kuma yana tallafawa farashin electrodes na graphite. A halin yanzu, farashin coke na allura a cikin jerin kwal na cikin gida shine kusan yuan 7000, jerin mai shine kusan 7800, kuma farashin shigo da kaya shine kusan dalar Amurka 1500. A cewar bayanan Bachuan, wasu manyan masana'antun sun yi odar tushen kayayyaki a watan Fabrairu. Saboda kula da manyan masu samar da kayan masarufi a gida da waje a watan Afrilu, ana sa ran cewa wutar lantarki ta graphite ta shekarar 2021 za ta ci gaba da samun damar karuwa a rabin farko na shekarar. Duk da haka, tare da karuwar farashi, bukatar da ake da ita ta narkar da wutar lantarki a cikin wutar lantarki zai yi rauni, kuma ana sa ran farashin wutar lantarki ta graphite a rabin na biyu na shekarar zai ci gaba da kasancewa daidai.
2.2. girman girman na'urar lantarki mai inganci da ƙarfi ta cikin gida tana da girma
Fitar da na'urorin lantarki na graphite a ƙasashen waje ya ragu, kuma ƙarfin samarwa galibi shine na'urorin lantarki na graphite masu ƙarfin gaske. Daga 2014 zuwa 2019, samar da na'urar lantarki ta graphite ta duniya (banda China) ya ragu daga tan 800000 zuwa tan 710000, tare da haɓakar shekara-shekara na - 2.4%. Saboda rushewar masana'antun da ba su da ƙarfin aiki, gyara muhalli na dogon lokaci da sake ginawa, ƙarfin aiki da fitarwa a wajen China na ci gaba da raguwa, kuma gibin da ke tsakanin fitarwa da amfani yana cike da na'urorin lantarki na graphite da China ke fitarwa. Daga tsarin samfurin, fitar da na'urorin lantarki na graphite masu ƙarfin gaske a ƙasashen waje ya kai kusan kashi 90% na jimlar fitarwa na duk na'urorin lantarki na graphite (banda China). Ana amfani da na'urar lantarki ta graphite mai inganci da ƙarfin gaske wajen samar da ƙarfe da ƙarfe na musamman. Mai ƙera yana buƙatar manyan ma'aunin jiki da sinadarai kamar yawa, juriya da abun ciki na toka na irin waɗannan na'urorin lantarki.
Fitar da lantarkin graphite a China ya ci gaba da ƙaruwa, kuma ƙarfin kera na'urar lantarki mai inganci da ƙarfin gaske yana da iyaka. Fitar da lantarkin graphite a China ya ragu daga tan 570000 a shekarar 2014 zuwa tan 500000 a shekarar 2016. Fitar da lantarkin China ta sake dawowa tun daga shekarar 2017 kuma ta kai tan 800000 a shekarar 2019. Idan aka kwatanta da kasuwar lantarkin graphite ta duniya, masana'antun cikin gida suna da ƙarfin kera lantarkin graphite mai ƙarfi mai ƙarancin ƙarfi, amma ga graphite mai inganci da ƙarfin gaske, ƙarfin kera na cikin gida yana da iyaka sosai. A shekarar 2019, fitar da lantarkin graphite mai inganci da ƙarfin gaske a China ya kai tan 86000 kacal, wanda ya kai kusan kashi 10% na jimillar fitarwa, wanda ya bambanta sosai da tsarin samfuran lantarkin graphite na ƙasashen waje.
Daga mahangar buƙata, yawan amfani da na'urorin lantarki na graphite a duniya (banda China) a tsakanin 2014-2019 ya fi yawan fitarwa, kuma bayan 2017, yawan amfani da na'urorin lantarki na graphite ya ƙaru kowace shekara. A shekarar 2019, yawan amfani da na'urorin lantarki na graphite a duniya (banda China) ya kai tan 890000. Daga 2014 zuwa 2015, yawan amfani da na'urorin lantarki na graphite a China ya ragu daga tan 390000 zuwa tan 360000, kuma yawan na'urorin lantarki na graphite masu inganci da ƙarfi ya ragu daga tan 23800 zuwa tan 20300. Daga 2016 zuwa 2017, saboda farfaɗowar ƙarfin kasuwar ƙarfe a China a hankali, yawan yin ƙarfe na EAF yana ƙaruwa. A halin yanzu, adadin na'urorin lantarki masu inganci da masana'antun ƙarfe ke amfani da su yana ƙaruwa. Bukatar na'urorin lantarki masu ƙarfin gaske ta graphite sun ƙaru zuwa tan 580000 a shekarar 2019, wanda daga cikinsu, buƙatar na'urorin lantarki masu ƙarfin gaske ta graphite sun kai tan 66300, kuma CAGR a shekarar 2017-2019 ya kai 68%. Ana sa ran na'urar lantarki ta Graphite (musamman na'urar lantarki mai ƙarfin gaske ta graphite) za ta biya buƙatun da kariyar muhalli da ƙarancin samarwa ke haifarwa a ƙarshen wadata da kuma ƙarfin ƙarfe a ƙarshen buƙata.
3. Girman narkar da nama na ɗan gajeren lokaci yana haifar da haɓakar lantarki mai siffar graphite
3.1. buƙatar sabuwar tanderun lantarki don tuƙa lantarki mai siffar graphite
Masana'antar ƙarfe tana ɗaya daga cikin ginshiƙan masana'antu na ci gaban zamantakewa da ci gaba. A cikin 'yan shekarun nan, samar da ƙarfe mai ɗanyen mai a duniya ya ci gaba da samun ci gaba mai ɗorewa. Ana amfani da ƙarfe sosai a masana'antar motoci, gini, marufi da layin dogo, kuma yawan amfani da ƙarfe a duniya ya ƙaru akai-akai. A lokaci guda, an inganta ingancin kayayyakin ƙarfe kuma ƙa'idodin kare muhalli suna ƙaruwa. Wasu masana'antun ƙarfe suna komawa ga kera ƙarfe na tanderu, yayin da lantarki na graphite yana da matuƙar muhimmanci ga tanderu, don haka inganta buƙatun ingancin lantarki na graphite. Narkewar ƙarfe da ƙarfe shine babban filin aikace-aikacen lantarki na graphite, wanda ya kai kusan kashi 80% na jimillar amfani da lantarki na graphite. A cikin narkewar ƙarfe da ƙarfe, yin ƙarfe na tanderu na lantarki ya kai kusan kashi 50% na jimillar amfani da lantarki na graphite, kuma tacewa a waje yana kai fiye da kashi 25% na jimillar amfani da lantarki na graphite. A duniya, a shekarar 2015, kaso na jimillar fitar da danyen karfe a duniya ya kai kashi 25.2%, 62.7%, 39.4% da 22.9% bi da bi a Amurka, kasashe 27 na Tarayyar Turai da Japan, yayin da a shekarar 2015, samar da danyen karfe na tanderun lantarki a kasar Sin ya kai kashi 5.9%, wanda ya yi kasa da matakin duniya sosai. A cikin dogon lokaci, fasahar sarrafa karfe ta gajere tana da fa'idodi bayyanannu akan dogon tsari. Ana sa ran masana'antar karfe ta musamman tare da EAF a matsayin babban kayan aikin samarwa za ta bunkasa cikin sauri. Albarkatun da aka tara na kayan aikin karfe na EAF za su sami babban sararin ci gaba a nan gaba. Saboda haka, ana sa ran yin karfe na EAF zai bunkasa cikin sauri, wanda hakan zai kara bukatar electrode na graphite. Daga mahangar fasaha, EAF ita ce babbar kayan aikin yin karfe na gajere. Fasahar yin karfe ta gajere tana da fa'idodi bayyanannu a fannin ingancin samarwa, kariyar muhalli, kudin saka hannun jari a ginin jari da kuma sassaucin tsari; daga tushe, kusan kashi 70% na karfe na musamman da kuma kashi 100% na babban karfe a kasar Sin ana samar da su ne ta hanyar wutar lantarki ta baka. A shekarar 2016, fitar da ƙarfe na musamman a China kashi 1/5 ne kawai na Japan, kuma ana samar da samfuran ƙarfe na musamman na musamman a Japan kawai. Kashi 1/8 ne kawai na Japan. Ci gaban ƙarfe na musamman na gaba a China zai haifar da haɓaka electrode na graphite don murhun lantarki na ƙarfe da murhun lantarki; saboda haka, adana albarkatun ƙarfe da amfani da tarkace a China yana da babban sararin ci gaba, kuma tushen albarkatun yin ƙarfe na ɗan gajeren lokaci a nan gaba yana da ƙarfi.
Fitar da na'urar lantarki ta graphite ta yi daidai da canjin yanayin fitar da ƙarfe tanderu mai amfani da wutar lantarki. Ƙaruwar fitar da ƙarfe tanderu zai haifar da buƙatar na'urar lantarki ta graphite a nan gaba. A cewar bayanan ƙungiyar ƙarfe da ƙarfe ta duniya da ƙungiyar masana'antar carbon ta China, fitar da ƙarfe tanderu mai amfani da wutar lantarki a China a shekarar 2019 ya kai tan miliyan 127.4, kuma fitar da na'urar lantarki ta graphite ta kai tan 7421000. Yawan fitarwa da haɓakar na'urar lantarki ta graphite a China yana da alaƙa da yawan fitarwa da haɓakar na'urar lantarki ta power ta China. Daga mahangar samarwa, fitar da ƙarfe tanderu mai amfani da wutar lantarki a shekarar 2011 ya kai kololuwar sa, sannan ya ragu kowace shekara, kuma fitar da na'urar lantarki ta graphite a China shi ma ya ragu kowace shekara bayan 2011. A shekarar 2016, Ma'aikatar Masana'antu da Fasahar Bayanai ta shiga kusan na'urorin lantarki 205 na kamfanonin yin ƙarfe, inda aka samar da tan miliyan 45, wanda ya kai kashi 6.72% na yawan fitar da ɗanyen ƙarfe na ƙasa a wannan shekarar. A shekarar 2017, an ƙara sababbi 127, inda aka samar da tan miliyan 75, wanda ya kai kashi 9.32% na jimlar samar da ƙarfe a cikin shekarar; a shekarar 2018, an ƙara sababbi 34, inda aka samar da tan miliyan 100, wanda ya kai kashi 11% na jimlar samar da ƙarfe a cikin shekarar da muke ciki; a shekarar 2019, an kawar da tanderun lantarki masu ƙarancin tan 50, kuma sabbin tanderun lantarki da aka gina da kuma waɗanda ake samarwa a China sun fi 355, wanda ya kai kashi 12.8%. Kashi na yin ƙarfe a cikin tanderun lantarki a China har yanzu yana ƙasa da matsakaicin duniya, amma gibin ya fara raguwa a hankali. Daga ƙimar girma, fitowar lantarki a cikin tanderun lantarki a cikin graphite yana nuna yanayin canzawa da raguwa. A shekarar 2015, yanayin raguwar samar da ƙarfe a cikin tanderun lantarki ya ragu, kuma fitowar lantarki a cikin graphite ya ragu. Kashi na fitarwa na ƙarfe a nan gaba zai fi girma, wanda zai haifar da buƙatar lantarki a nan gaba a cikin tanderun lantarki.
A bisa tsarin daidaitawa na masana'antar ƙarfe da Ma'aikatar Masana'antu da Fasahar Bayanai ta fitar, a bayyane yake cewa "a ƙarfafa haɓaka tsarin yin ƙarfe na ɗan gajeren lokaci da aikace-aikacen kayan aiki tare da ƙarfen da aka goge a matsayin kayan aiki. Nan da shekarar 2025, rabon tarkacen yin ƙarfe na kamfanonin ƙarfe na ƙasar Sin ba zai zama ƙasa da kashi 30% ba tare da haɓaka shirin shekaru biyar na 14 a fannoni daban-daban, ana sa ran cewa rabon gajeren aiki zai ƙara inganta buƙatar lantarki mai siffar graphite, babban kayan da ake amfani da shi a sama.
Banda China, manyan ƙasashen da ke samar da ƙarfe a duniya, kamar Amurka, Japan da Koriya ta Kudu, galibi suna yin ƙarfen tanderu mai amfani da wutar lantarki, wanda ke buƙatar ƙarin electrodes na graphite, yayin da ƙarfin electrodes na graphite na China ya kai sama da kashi 50% na ƙarfin duniya, wanda hakan ya sa China ta zama ƙasar da ke fitar da electrodes na graphite. A shekarar 2018, yawan fitar da electrodes na graphite na China ya kai tan 287000, ƙaruwar kashi 21.11% a shekara, wanda ke ci gaba da ci gaban, da kuma ƙaruwa mai yawa tsawon shekaru uku a jere. Ana sa ran yawan fitar da electrodes na graphite a China zai ƙaru zuwa tan 398000 nan da shekarar 2023, tare da ƙaruwar ci gaban shekara-shekara na kashi 5.5%. Godiya ga ci gaban matakin fasaha na masana'antar, a hankali abokan ciniki na ƙasashen waje suka amince da kayayyakin electrodes na graphite na China kuma suka karɓe su, kuma kudaden shiga na tallace-tallace na kamfanonin electrodes na graphite na China sun ƙaru sosai. Idan aka ɗauki manyan masana'antar lantarki ta graphite a China a matsayin misali, tare da ci gaban masana'antar lantarki ta graphite gaba ɗaya, saboda ƙarfin gasa da take da shi a fannin samfura, Fangda carbon ya ƙara yawan kuɗin shiga na kasuwancin lantarki ta graphite a ƙasashen waje a cikin shekaru biyu da suka gabata. Tallace-tallace a ƙasashen waje sun ƙaru daga Yuan miliyan 430 a lokacin ƙarancin lokacin masana'antar lantarki ta graphite a shekarar 2016 zuwa A shekarar 2018, kuɗin shiga na kasuwancin lantarki ta graphite a ƙasashen waje ya kai sama da kashi 30% na jimillar kuɗin shiga na kamfanin, kuma matakin shiga ƙasashen duniya yana ƙaruwa. Tare da ci gaba da inganta matakin fasaha da kuma gasa a fannin masana'antar lantarki ta graphite a China, abokan ciniki na ƙasashen waje za su amince da kuma amincewa da na'urar lantarki ta graphite ta China. Ana sa ran yawan na'urar lantarki ta graphite da aka fitar zai ƙaru, wanda zai zama babban abin da zai haɓaka samar da na'urar lantarki ta graphite a China.
3.2. tasirin manufar kare muhalli kan yanayin annoba yana sa samar da wutar lantarki ta graphite ta yi tsauri
Fitar da hayakin carbon a cikin dogon tsari na yin ƙarfe na ɗan gajeren lokaci a cikin tanderun lantarki ya ragu. A cewar shirin shekaru biyar na masana'antar ƙarfe na sharar gida na 13, idan aka kwatanta da yin ƙarfe na ƙarfe, za a iya rage fitar da tan 1.6 na carbon dioxide da tan 3 na sharar gida ta hanyar amfani da tan 1 na yin ƙarfe na ƙarfe. Jerin matakai suna shiga cikin masana'antar ƙarfe da ƙarfe. Kowace tsari za ta fuskanci jerin canje-canje na sinadarai da na zahiri. A lokaci guda, za a fitar da nau'ikan ragowar abubuwa da sharar gida daban-daban yayin da ake samar da samfuran da ake buƙata. Ta hanyar lissafi, za mu iya gano cewa lokacin da aka samar da tan 1 na slab / billet iri ɗaya, dogon tsari da ke ɗauke da sintering zai fitar da ƙarin gurɓatattun abubuwa, wanda shine na biyu a cikin dogon tsari na aikin pellet, yayin da gurɓatattun abubuwa da aka fitar ta hanyar yin ƙarfe na ɗan gajeren lokaci sun fi ƙasa da na dogon tsari tare da tsarin sintering da dogon tsari mai ɗauke da pellet, wanda ke nuna cewa yin ƙarfe na ɗan gajeren lokaci ya fi dacewa da muhalli. Domin cin nasarar yakin kare sararin samaniya mai launin shuɗi, larduna da yawa a China sun bayar da sanarwar cewa za a samu raguwar yawan samar da kayayyaki a lokacin hunturu da bazara, kuma sun yi shirye-shiryen samar da kayayyaki masu mahimmanci ga manyan kamfanonin da suka shafi iskar gas kamar ƙarfe, ba ƙarfe ba, coking, masana'antar sinadarai, kayan gini da siminti. Daga cikinsu, idan amfani da makamashi, kare muhalli da amincin kamfanonin carbon da ferroalloy waɗanda electrode graphite ke da su suka gaza cika buƙatun da suka dace, wasu larduna sun ba da shawarar cewa za a aiwatar da ƙuntatawa ko dakatar da samarwa bisa ga ainihin yanayin.
3.3. Tsarin wadata da buƙata na lantarkin graphite yana canzawa a hankali
Sabuwar cutar huhu da ta shafi cutar korona sakamakon koma bayan tattalin arziki a duniya da kuma wani tasiri na masu kare kai a rabin farko na shekarar 2020, ta sa bukatar kasuwar graphite ta cikin gida da waje ta ragu, kuma farashin tallace-tallace ya ragu, kuma kamfanonin lantarki na graphite a masana'antar sun rage samarwa, sun dakatar da samarwa, suka kuma yi asara. A cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci da matsakaici, baya ga tsammanin China za ta inganta buƙatar lantarki na graphite, ƙarfin lantarki na graphite na ƙasashen waje zai iya raguwa a ƙarƙashin tasirin annobar, wanda zai ƙara ta'azzara yanayin ƙarancin samar da lantarki na graphite.
Tun daga kwata na huɗu na 2020, yawan kayayyakin lantarki na graphite yana raguwa akai-akai, kuma yawan fara kasuwancin ya ƙaru. Tun daga shekarar 2019, jimillar samar da lantarki na graphite a China ya yi yawa, kuma kamfanonin lantarki na graphite suma suna sarrafa kamfanonin farawa yadda ya kamata. Duk da cewa koma bayan tattalin arziki a duniya a shekarar 2020, tasirin masana'antun ƙarfe na ƙasashen waje da COVID-19 ya shafa galibi yana kan aiki, amma yawan fitar da ƙarfe na China ya ci gaba da ƙaruwa. Duk da haka, farashin kasuwar lantarki na graphite yana shafar kasuwar, kuma farashin yana ci gaba da raguwa, kuma kamfanonin lantarki na graphite sun yi asara mai yawa. Wasu daga cikin manyan kamfanonin lantarki na graphite a China sun cinye kayan a watan Afrilu da Mayu 2020. A halin yanzu, wadata da buƙatar kasuwa mai girma da girma suna kusa da ma'aunin wadata da buƙata. Ko da buƙatar ba ta canza ba, ranar wadata da buƙata mai ƙarfi za ta zo nan ba da jimawa ba.
Saurin karuwar amfani da tarkacen ƙarfe yana ƙara buƙatar buƙata. Yawan amfani da tarkacen ƙarfe ya ƙaru daga tan miliyan 88.29 a shekarar 2014 zuwa tan miliyan 18781 a shekarar 2018, kuma CAGR ya kai kashi 20.8%. Tare da buɗe manufar ƙasa kan shigo da tarkacen ƙarfe da kuma ƙaruwar yawan narkar da wutar lantarki a cikin tanda, ana sa ran yawan amfani da tarkacen ƙarfe zai ci gaba da ƙaruwa cikin sauri. A gefe guda kuma, saboda farashin tarkacen ƙarfe ya fi shafar buƙatun ƙasashen waje, farashin tarkacen ƙarfe ya ƙaru sosai a rabin na biyu na shekarar 2020 saboda tasirin fara shigo da tarkacen China. A halin yanzu, farashin tarkacen ƙarfe yana kan babban matsayi, kuma ya fara komawa baya tun daga shekarar 2021. Ana sa ran raguwar buƙata sakamakon tasirin annobar da ta shafi ƙasashen waje zai ci gaba da shafar raguwar tarkacen ƙarfe. Ana sa ran farashin ƙarfen da aka yi amfani da shi zai ci gaba da shafar a rabin farko na 2021. Latsi zai yi ta juyawa da raguwa, wanda hakan kuma yana taimakawa wajen inganta yawan fara amfani da wutar lantarki da kuma buƙatar lantarki mai siffar graphite.
Jimillar buƙatar ƙarfen tanderu na lantarki a duniya da kuma ƙarfen da ba na tanderu ba a shekarar 2019 da 2020 shine tan 1376800 da tan miliyan 14723 bi da bi. An yi hasashen cewa jimillar buƙatar duniya za ta ƙara ƙaruwa a cikin shekaru biyar masu zuwa, kuma ta kai tan miliyan 2.1444 a shekarar 2025. Buƙatar ƙarfen tanderu na lantarki ya kai mafi yawan jimillar. An kiyasta cewa buƙatar za ta kai tan miliyan 1.8995 a shekarar 2025.
Bukatar lantarki ta graphite a duniya a shekarar 2019 da 2020 ita ce tan 1376800 da tan miliyan 14723 bi da bi. An yi hasashen cewa jimillar buƙatar duniya za ta ƙara ƙaruwa a cikin shekaru biyar masu zuwa, kuma ana sa ran za ta kai tan miliyan 2.1444 a shekarar 2025. A halin yanzu, a shekarar 2021 da 2022, samar da lantarki ta graphite a duniya ya wuce tan 267 da 16000 bi da bi. Bayan shekarar 2023, za a sami ƙarancin wadata, tare da gibin tan -17900, tan 39000 da -24000.
A shekarar 2019 da 2020, buƙatar lantarki ta UHP graphite a duniya ita ce tan 9087000 da tan 986400 bi da bi. An yi hasashen cewa jimillar buƙatar duniya za ta ƙara ƙaruwa a cikin shekaru biyar masu zuwa, kuma ta kai kimanin tan miliyan 1.608 a shekarar 2025. A halin yanzu, a shekarar 2021 da 2022, samar da lantarki ta graphite a duniya ya wuce tan 775 da tan 61500 bi da bi. Bayan shekarar 2023, za a sami ƙarancin wadata, tare da gibin tan -08000, tan 26300 da tan -67300.
Daga rabin shekarar 2020 zuwa Janairu 2021, farashin wutar lantarki mai ƙarfin gaske a duniya ya ragu daga 27000/t zuwa 24000/T. An kiyasta cewa babban kamfanin har yanzu zai iya samun ribar yuan 1922-2067/t a farashin da ake da shi a yanzu. A shekarar 2021, buƙatar wutar lantarki mai ƙarfin gaske a duniya za ta ƙara ƙaruwa, musamman ma ana sa ran dumamar fitarwa za ta ci gaba da jawo buƙatar wutar lantarki mai ƙarfin gaske, kuma ƙimar fara amfani da wutar lantarki ta graphite za ta ci gaba da ƙaruwa. Ana sa ran farashin wutar lantarki mai ƙarfin gaske ta UHP a shekarar 2021 zai karu zuwa 26000/t nan da rabin shekarar na biyu, kuma za a ƙara ribar zuwa 3922-4067 yuan/t. Tare da ci gaba da ƙaruwar buƙatar wutar lantarki mai ƙarfin gaske a nan gaba, za a ƙara samun ribar.
Tun daga watan Janairun 2021, farashin wutar lantarki ta graphite mai amfani da wutar lantarki a duniya shine yuan 11500-12500 / tan. Dangane da farashin da farashin kasuwa na yanzu, an kiyasta cewa ribar wutar lantarki ta graphite ta yau da kullun ta kai yuan -264-1404 / tan, wanda har yanzu yana cikin yanayin asara. Farashin wutar lantarki ta graphite ta yanzu tare da wutar lantarki ta yau da kullun ya tashi daga yuan 10000 / tan a kwata na uku na 2020 zuwa yuan 12500 / T. tare da farfadowar tattalin arzikin duniya a hankali, musamman a ƙarƙashin manufar rage gurɓatar carbon, buƙatar ƙarfe tanderu ta karu da sauri, kuma yawan amfani da ƙarfen da aka lalata yana ci gaba da ƙaruwa, kuma buƙatar wutar lantarki ta graphite ta yau da kullun ita ma za ta tashi sosai. Ana sa ran farashin wutar lantarki ta graphite mai amfani da wutar lantarki ta yau da kullun zai tashi zuwa sama da farashi a kwata na uku na 2021, kuma za a cimma ribar. Tare da buƙatar wutar lantarki ta graphite ta duniya ta duniya ta amfani da wutar lantarki ta yau da kullun ta ci gaba da ƙaruwa a nan gaba, sararin ribar zai faɗaɗa a hankali.
4. tsarin gasa na masana'antar lantarki ta graphite a China
Masana'antar lantarki ta graphite electrode ce ke da matsakaicin matsayi, inda kamfanoni masu zaman kansu ke da mahalarta. Samar da lantarki ta graphite electrode ta China ta kai kusan kashi 50% na fitar da lantarki ta graphite a duniya. A matsayinta na babbar kamfani a masana'antar lantarki ta graphite electrode ta China, kaso na kasuwa na lantarki mai siffar murabba'in carbon a China ya fi kashi 20%, kuma karfin lantarki ta graphite electrode ita ce ta uku a duniya. Dangane da ingancin samfura, manyan kamfanoni a masana'antar lantarki ta graphite electrode a China suna da karfin gasa a duniya, kuma takamaiman fasaha na kayayyakin sun kai matsayin irin na masu fafatawa a kasashen waje. Akwai raguwar darajar kayayyaki a kasuwar lantarki ta graphite. Kasuwar lantarki ta graphite mai karfin gaske galibi manyan kamfanoni ne ke mamaye ta, kuma manyan kamfanoni hudu ne ke da sama da kashi 80% na kasuwar lantarki ta UHP graphite electrode, kuma yawan masana'antar a bayyane yake.
A kasuwar lantarki mai ƙarfin lantarki mai girman gaske, manyan kamfanonin lantarki na graphite a tsakiyar kasuwa suna da ƙarfin ciniki mai ƙarfi ga masana'antar yin ƙarfe ta ƙasa, kuma suna buƙatar abokan ciniki su biya don isar da kayayyaki ba tare da bayar da lokacin asusu ba. Manyan lantarki na graphite da wutar lantarki ta yau da kullun suna da ƙarancin matakin fasaha, gasa mai ƙarfi a kasuwa da kuma gasa mai ban sha'awa. A kasuwar lantarki mai ƙarfin lantarki da wutar lantarki ta yau da kullun, wacce ke fuskantar masana'antar yin ƙarfe tare da babban taro a ƙasa, ƙananan da matsakaitan kamfanonin lantarki na graphite suna da ƙarancin ikon ciniki zuwa ƙasa, don samar wa abokan ciniki lokacin asusu ko ma rage farashi don yin gasa don kasuwa. Bugu da ƙari, saboda abubuwan da ke ƙara ta'azzara kariyar muhalli, ƙarfin kamfanonin tsakiya yana da iyaka sosai, kuma jimlar yawan amfani da ƙarfin masana'antar bai wuce kashi 70% ba. Wasu kamfanoni ma suna ganin abin da ake kira da a dakatar da samarwa har abada. Idan wadatar masana'antar narkar ƙarfe, phosphorus mai launin rawaya da sauran kayan masana'antu da ke ƙarƙashin electrode graphite ta ragu, buƙatar kasuwar electrode graphite ta iyakance, kuma farashin electrode graphite bai tashi sosai ba, ƙaruwar farashin aiki zai haifar da rayuwar ƙananan da matsakaitan kamfanoni ba tare da gasa mai mahimmanci ba, kuma a hankali za su fice daga kasuwa ko kuma manyan kamfanonin electrode graphite ko ƙarfe su same su.
Bayan shekarar 2017, tare da karuwar riba mai sauri a masana'antar ƙarfe ta wutar lantarki, buƙata da farashin lantarki mai launin graphite don abubuwan da ake amfani da su a masana'antar ƙarfe ta wutar lantarki suma sun ƙaru da sauri. Ribar da aka samu a masana'antar lantarki mai launin graphite ta ƙaru sosai. Kamfanoni a masana'antar sun faɗaɗa yawan samar da kayayyaki. Wasu kamfanonin da suka daina aiki an fara aiki a hankali. Daga yawan fitar da lantarki mai launin graphite, yawan masana'antar ya ragu. Idan aka ɗauki babban carbon na lantarki mai launin graphite a matsayin misali, jimlar kason kasuwa ya ragu daga kusan kashi 30% a shekarar 2016 zuwa kusan kashi 25% a shekarar 2018. Duk da haka, game da takamaiman rarrabuwar samfuran lantarki mai launin graphite, an bambanta gasa a kasuwar masana'antu. Saboda manyan buƙatun fasaha na lantarki mai launin graphite mai ƙarfin gaske, ana ƙara inganta kason kasuwa na samfuran lantarki mai ƙarfin gaske ta hanyar fitar da ƙarfin samarwa na manyan kamfanonin masana'antu tare da ƙarfin fasaha mai dacewa, kuma manyan kamfanoni huɗu masu ƙarfin gaske suna da sama da kashi 80% na kasuwar samfuran lantarki mai ƙarfin gaske. Dangane da ƙarfin da aka saba amfani da shi da kuma babban ƙarfin lantarki mai ƙarfin lantarki mai ƙarancin buƙatun fasaha, gasar da ake yi a kasuwa tana ƙaruwa a hankali saboda sake haɗuwa da ƙananan da matsakaitan kamfanoni masu ƙarancin ƙarfin fasaha da faɗaɗa samarwa.
Bayan shekaru da dama na ci gaba, ta hanyar gabatar da fasahar samar da lantarki ta graphite, manyan kamfanonin lantarki na graphite a kasar Sin sun kware a fannin samar da lantarki ta graphite. Fasahar samarwa da fasahar lantarki ta graphite tana kama da ta masu fafatawa a kasashen waje, kuma tare da fa'idodin aiki mai tsada, kamfanonin lantarki na graphite na kasar Sin suna kara taka muhimmiyar rawa a gasar kasuwar duniya.
5. Shawarwari kan saka hannun jari
A ƙarshen wadata, yawan masana'antar lantarki ta graphite har yanzu yana da damar ingantawa, kariyar muhalli da iyakance samarwa suna ƙara yawan yin ƙarfe a cikin tanderun lantarki, kuma ci gaban masana'antar lantarki ta graphite gabaɗaya yana da kyau. A ɓangaren buƙata, don inganta yawan aiki da rage amfani da makamashi, makomar UHP EAF tan 100-150 ita ce babbar hanyar ci gaba, kuma ci gaban UHP EAF shine yanayin gabaɗaya. A matsayin ɗaya daga cikin manyan kayan UHP EAF, ana sa ran buƙatar babban lantarki mai ƙarfin graphite mai ƙarfin gaske zai ƙara ƙaruwa.
Arzikin masana'antar lantarki ta graphite ya ragu a cikin shekaru biyu da suka gabata. Ayyukan manyan kamfanonin lantarki na graphite a cikin gida sun ragu sosai a shekarar 2020. Gabaɗaya masana'antar tana cikin matakin ƙarancin tsammani da ƙarancin ƙima. Duk da haka, mun yi imanin cewa tare da inganta muhimman fannoni na masana'antar da kuma dawo da farashin lantarki ta graphite a hankali zuwa matakin da ya dace, ayyukan manyan kamfanoni a masana'antar za su amfana sosai daga sake dawowar kasuwar lantarki ta graphite. A nan gaba, China tana da babban sarari don haɓaka aikin ƙarfe na ɗan gajeren lokaci, wanda zai amfanar da haɓaka lantarki ta graphite don EAF na ɗan gajeren lokaci. Ana ba da shawarar cewa manyan kamfanoni a fannin lantarki ta graphite ya kamata a mai da hankali kan su.
6. nasihu kan haɗari
Yawan masana'antar kera ƙarfe tanderu ta lantarki a China ba kamar yadda aka zata ba ne, kuma farashin kayan da ake amfani da su wajen kera ƙarfe ta graphite yana canzawa sosai.
Lokacin Saƙo: Afrilu-13-2021