1. Kev txhim kho ntawm kev lag luam hlau tsav tsheb kev loj hlob ntawm kev thov thoob ntiaj teb rau graphite electrodes
1.1 kev qhia luv luv ntawm graphite electrode
Cov hluav taws xob graphiteyog ib hom khoom siv graphite conductive uas tiv taus kub siab. Nws yog ib hom khoom siv graphite conductive uas tiv taus kub siab, uas yog ua los ntawm calcining cov ntaub ntawv raw, crushing hmoov sib tsoo, batching, sib tov, tsim, ci, impregnating, graphitization thiab mechanical processing, uas yog hu ua artificial graphite electrode (graphite electrode) kom paub qhov txawv ntawm kev siv saum ntuj ceeb tsheej Txawm li cas los xij, graphite yog ib qho graphite electrode ntuj tsim los ntawm cov ntaub ntawv raw. Graphite electrodes tuaj yeem ua tam sim no thiab tsim hluav taws xob, yog li yaj cov hlau seem lossis lwm yam khoom siv raw hauv lub cub tawg kom tsim cov hlau thiab lwm yam khoom hlau, feem ntau siv rau hauv kev tsim hlau. Graphite electrode yog ib hom khoom siv uas tsis tshua muaj zog thiab tiv taus thermal gradient hauv lub cub tawg. Cov yam ntxwv tseem ceeb ntawm graphite electrode ntau lawm yog lub voj voog ntau lawm ntev (feem ntau kav ntev li peb txog tsib lub hlis), kev siv hluav taws xob loj thiab cov txheej txheem ntau lawm nyuaj.
Cov khoom siv raw ntawm cov graphite electrode kev lag luam saw yog feem ntau roj av coke thiab koob coke, thiab cov khoom siv raw suav rau feem ntau ntawm cov nqi tsim khoom ntawm graphite electrode, suav rau ntau dua 65%, vim tias tseem muaj qhov sib txawv loj ntawm Tuam Tshoj txoj kev tsim khoom siv koob coke thiab thev naus laus zis piv rau Tebchaws Meskas thiab Nyiv Pooj, qhov zoo ntawm koob coke hauv tsev nyuaj rau lav, yog li Tuam Tshoj tseem muaj kev vam khom siab rau kev xa khoom zoo koob coke. Xyoo 2018, tag nrho cov khoom lag luam koob coke hauv Suav teb yog 418000 tons, thiab kev xa khoom koob coke hauv Suav teb ncav cuag 218000 tons, suav rau ntau dua 50%; daim ntawv thov tseem ceeb ntawm graphite electrode yog Hluav Taws Xob arc cua sov steelmaking.
Kev faib tawm ntawm graphite electrode feem ntau yog raws li cov khoom siv lub cev thiab tshuaj ntawm cov khoom tiav. Raws li tus qauv kev faib tawm no, graphite electrode tuaj yeem muab faib ua cov hluav taws xob graphite electrode, cov hluav taws xob graphite electrode siab thiab cov hluav taws xob graphite electrode siab heev. Cov hluav taws xob graphite electrodes nrog lub zog sib txawv yog txawv hauv cov khoom siv raw, electrode resistivity, elastic modulus, flexural zog, coefficient ntawm thermal expansion, tso cai tam sim no ceev thiab daim ntawv thov.
1.2. Kev tshuaj xyuas keeb kwm kev loj hlob ntawm graphite electrode hauv Suav teb
Graphite electrode feem ntau yog siv rau hauv kev smelting hlau thiab hlau. Kev txhim kho ntawm Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam graphite electrode yeej sib xws nrog cov txheej txheem niaj hnub ntawm Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam hlau thiab hlau. Graphite electrode hauv Tuam Tshoj pib xyoo 1950, thiab tau dhau los ntawm peb theem txij li thaum nws yug los.
Kev lag luam graphite electrode yuav rov qab los rau xyoo 2021. Hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm xyoo 2020, vim muaj kev sib kis, kev thov hauv tsev tau poob qis heev, kev txiav txim txawv teb chaws qeeb, thiab ntau qhov chaw muag khoom tau cuam tshuam rau kev lag luam hauv tsev. Thaum Lub Ob Hlis 2020, tus nqi ntawm graphite electrode tau nce siab ib ntus, tab sis tsis ntev kev ua tsov rog nqi tau nce siab. Nws xav tias nrog kev rov qab los ntawm kev lag luam hauv tsev thiab txawv teb chaws thiab kev loj hlob ntawm kev siv hluav taws xob hauv tsev raws li txoj cai carbon neutral, kev lag luam graphite electrode yuav rov qab los. Txij li xyoo 2020, nrog rau tus nqi ntawm graphite electrode poob qis thiab zoo li ruaj khov, kev thov hauv tsev rau graphite electrode rau EAF steelmaking nce ntxiv tas li, thiab qhov ntim xa tawm ntawm ultra-high power graphite electrode maj mam nce ntxiv, kev lag luam ntawm Tuam Tshoj kev lag luam graphite electrode yuav nce ntxiv tas li, thiab kev lag luam yuav maj mam loj hlob.
2. tus qauv kev muab khoom thiab kev thov ntawm graphite electrode yuav tsum rov qab
2.1. Qhov kev hloov pauv ntawm tus nqi thoob ntiaj teb ntawm graphite electrode yog qhov loj heev
Txij xyoo 2014 txog 2016, vim yog qhov kev thov qis zuj zus, kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb ntawm graphite electrode tau poob qis, thiab tus nqi ntawm graphite electrode tseem qis. Raws li cov khoom siv tseem ceeb ntawm graphite electrode, tus nqi needle coke tau poob qis mus rau $ 562.2 ib tuj hauv xyoo 2016. Vim tias Tuam Tshoj yog tus xa khoom ntawm needle coke, Tuam Tshoj qhov kev thov muaj kev cuam tshuam loj heev rau tus nqi ntawm needle coke sab nraum Tuam Tshoj. Nrog rau lub peev xwm ntawm cov chaw tsim khoom graphite electrode poob qis dua tus nqi tsim khoom hauv xyoo 2016, cov khoom muag hauv zej zog tau mus txog qhov qis tshaj plaws. Xyoo 2017, txoj cai kawg tau tshem tawm lub cub tawg nruab nrab ntawm Di Tiao hlau, thiab ntau cov hlau seem tau ntws mus rau hauv lub cub tawg ntawm cov hlau cog, uas ua rau muaj kev thov nce ntxiv rau kev lag luam graphite electrode hauv Suav teb hauv ib nrab xyoo tom ntej ntawm 2017. Kev nce ntxiv ntawm kev thov rau graphite electrode ua rau tus nqi koob coke nce siab hauv xyoo 2017, thiab mus txog US $ 3769.9 ib tuj hauv xyoo 2019, nce 5.7 npaug piv rau xyoo 2016.
Nyob rau xyoo tas los no, sab txoj cai hauv tebchaws tau txhawb nqa thiab coj kev ua cov hlau luv luv ntawm EAF es tsis yog cov hlau hloov pauv, uas tau txhawb kom muaj kev thov rau graphite electrode hauv kev lag luam hlau hauv Suav teb. Txij li xyoo 2017, kev lag luam hlau EAF thoob ntiaj teb tau rov zoo, ua rau muaj kev tsis txaus ntawm cov khoom siv graphite electrode thoob ntiaj teb. Kev thov rau graphite electrodes sab nraum Suav teb tau nce siab heev hauv xyoo 2017 thiab tus nqi tau mus txog qib siab tshaj plaws. Txij li thaum ntawd los, vim muaj kev nqis peev ntau dhau, kev tsim khoom thiab kev yuav khoom, kev ua lag luam muaj ntau yam khoom lag luam, thiab tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm graphite electrode tau poob qis hauv xyoo 2019. Hauv xyoo 2019, tus nqi ntawm uhhp graphite electrode tau ruaj khov ntawm US $ 8824.0 ib tuj, tab sis nws tseem siab dua tus nqi keeb kwm ua ntej xyoo 2016.
Nyob rau thawj ib nrab ntawm xyoo 2020, COVID-19 ua rau tus nqi muag khoom nruab nrab ntawm cov graphite electrodes poob qis ntxiv, thiab tus nqi koob coke hauv tebchaws tau poob qis los ntawm 8000 yuan / ton mus rau 4500 yuan / ton thaum kawg ntawm lub Yim Hli, lossis 43.75%. Tus nqi tsim khoom ntawm koob coke hauv Suav teb yog 5000-6000 yuan / ton, thiab feem ntau cov chaw tsim khoom qis dua qhov sib npaug ntawm cov txiaj ntsig thiab kev poob. Nrog rau kev rov zoo ntawm kev lag luam, kev tsim khoom thiab kev lag luam ntawm graphite electrodes hauv Suav teb tau zoo dua txij li lub Yim Hli, tus nqi pib ntawm cov hlau hluav taws xob tau khaws cia ntawm 65%, kev txaus siab ntawm cov nroj tsuag hlau los yuav graphite electrodes tau nce siab, thiab daim ntawv teev npe ntawm kev nug rau kev lag luam xa tawm tau maj mam nce. Tus nqi ntawm graphite electrode kuj tau nce txij li lub Cuaj Hli 2020. Tus nqi ntawm graphite electrode feem ntau tau nce los ntawm 500-1500 yuan / ton, thiab tus nqi xa tawm tau nce siab heev.
Txij li xyoo 2021, cuam tshuam los ntawm qhov xwm txheej sib kis hauv xeev Hebei, feem ntau cov nroj tsuag graphite electrode tau raug kaw thiab cov tsheb thauj mus los raug tswj hwm nruj me ntsis, thiab cov graphite electrodes hauv zos tsis tuaj yeem pauv pauv tau ib txwm. Tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv niaj hnub thiab cov khoom siv hluav taws xob siab hauv kev lag luam graphite electrode hauv tsev tau nce siab. Tus nqi tseem ceeb ntawm uhp450mm specification nrog 30% koob coke cov ntsiab lus hauv kev ua lag luam yog 15-15500 yuan / ton, thiab tus nqi tseem ceeb ntawm uhp600mm specification yog 185-19500 yuan / ton, nce ntawm 500-2000 yuan / ton. Tus nqi raw khoom nce siab kuj txhawb nqa tus nqi ntawm graphite electrode. Tam sim no, tus nqi ntawm koob coke hauv cov koob thee hauv tsev yog li 7000 yuan, roj series yog li 7800, thiab tus nqi ntshuam yog li 1500 Asmeskas las. Raws li Bachuan cov ntaub ntawv, qee cov chaw tsim khoom tseem ceeb tau xaj qhov chaw ntawm cov khoom hauv lub Ob Hlis. Vim yog qhov kev saib xyuas nruab nrab ntawm cov neeg muab khoom siv raw khoom loj hauv tsev thiab txawv teb chaws thaum lub Plaub Hlis, nws xav tias xyoo 2021 graphite electrode tseem yuav muaj chaw rau kev nce siab hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo. Txawm li cas los xij, nrog rau kev nce nqi, qhov kev thov kawg ntawm cov cua sov hluav taws xob smelting yuav tsis muaj zog, thiab tus nqi ntawm graphite electrode hauv ib nrab xyoo tom ntej yuav tseem ruaj khov.
2.2. Qhov chaw loj hlob ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob zoo thiab muaj zog heev hauv tsev yog qhov loj heev
Cov khoom tsim tawm ntawm cov electrodes graphite hauv txawv teb chaws raug txo qis, thiab lub peev xwm tsim khoom feem ntau yog cov electrodes graphite muaj zog heev. Txij xyoo 2014 txog 2019, kev tsim khoom thoob ntiaj teb ntawm graphite electrode (tshwj tsis yog Tuam Tshoj) tau txo qis los ntawm 800000 tons mus rau 710000 tons, nrog rau kev loj hlob txhua xyoo ntawm - 2.4%. Vim yog kev rhuav tshem cov nroj tsuag uas muaj peev xwm tsawg, kev kho thiab rov tsim kho ib puag ncig mus sij hawm ntev, lub peev xwm thiab cov khoom tsim tawm sab nraud Tuam Tshoj txuas ntxiv mus txo qis, thiab qhov sib txawv ntawm cov khoom tsim tawm thiab kev siv tau raug sau los ntawm cov electrodes graphite uas Tuam Tshoj xa tawm. Los ntawm cov qauv khoom, cov khoom tsim tawm ntawm cov electrodes graphite muaj zog heev hauv txawv teb chaws suav txog li 90% ntawm tag nrho cov khoom tsim tawm ntawm txhua cov electrodes graphite (tshwj tsis yog Tuam Tshoj). Cov electrode graphite zoo thiab muaj zog heev feem ntau yog siv rau hauv kev tsim cov hlau tsis xeb thiab hlau tshwj xeeb. Lub chaw tsim khoom xav tau cov ntsuas lub cev thiab tshuaj lom neeg siab xws li qhov ceev, resistivity thiab cov ntsiab lus tshauv ntawm cov electrodes no.
Cov khoom tsim tawm ntawm graphite electrode hauv Suav teb tau txuas ntxiv nce ntxiv, thiab lub peev xwm tsim khoom ntawm cov khoom zoo thiab muaj zog heev graphite electrode raug txwv. Cov khoom tsim tawm ntawm graphite electrode hauv Suav teb tau txo qis los ntawm 570000 tons hauv xyoo 2014 mus rau 500000 tons hauv xyoo 2016. Cov khoom tsim tawm ntawm Suav teb tau rov qab los txij li xyoo 2017 thiab ncav cuag 800000 tons hauv xyoo 2019. Piv nrog rau kev lag luam graphite electrode thoob ntiaj teb, cov chaw tsim khoom hauv tsev muaj peev xwm tsim khoom graphite electrode ultra-high-power tsawg, tab sis rau cov khoom zoo thiab ultra-high-power graphite, lub peev xwm tsim khoom hauv tsev muaj tsawg heev. Xyoo 2019, Tuam Tshoj cov khoom tsim tawm ntawm graphite electrode ultra-high-power zoo tsuas yog 86000 tons, suav txog li 10% ntawm tag nrho cov khoom tsim tawm, uas txawv ntawm cov qauv ntawm cov khoom graphite electrode txawv teb chaws.
Los ntawm qhov kev xav tau, kev siv cov graphite electrodes hauv ntiaj teb (tshwj tsis yog Tuam Tshoj) xyoo 2014-2019 yeej ib txwm ntau dua li qhov tso zis, thiab tom qab xyoo 2017, kev siv nce ntxiv txhua xyoo. Xyoo 2019, kev siv graphite electrodes hauv ntiaj teb (tshwj tsis yog Tuam Tshoj) yog 890000 tons. Txij xyoo 2014 txog 2015, kev siv graphite electrodes hauv Tuam Tshoj tau txo qis los ntawm 390000 tons mus rau 360000 tons, thiab cov zis ntawm cov graphite electrodes zoo thiab ultra-high-power tau txo qis los ntawm 23800 tons mus rau 20300 tons. Txij xyoo 2016 txog 2017, vim yog qhov maj mam rov qab los ntawm lub peev xwm ua lag luam hlau hauv Tuam Tshoj, qhov feem pua ntawm EAF steelmaking nce ntxiv. Lub caij no, tus lej ntawm cov EAFs siab siv los ntawm cov chaw tsim khoom hlau nce ntxiv. Xyoo 2019, qhov kev thov rau cov electrodes graphite zoo ultra-high-power tau nce mus txog 580000 tons, ntawm cov uas, qhov kev thov rau cov electrodes graphite zoo ultra-high-power ncav cuag 66300 tons, thiab CAGR hauv xyoo 2017-2019 ncav cuag 68%. Graphite electrode (tshwj xeeb tshaj yog cov electrode graphite muaj zog siab) xav tias yuav ua tau raws li qhov kev thov resonance tsav los ntawm kev tiv thaiv ib puag ncig thiab kev tsim khoom tsawg ntawm qhov kawg ntawm qhov muab khoom thiab qhov permeability ntawm cov hlau cub tawg ntawm qhov kawg ntawm qhov kev thov.
3. Kev loj hlob ntawm kev smelting luv luv tsav txoj kev loj hlob ntawm graphite electrode
3.1. Kev xav tau lub cub hluav taws xob tshiab los tsav lub electrode graphite
Kev lag luam hlau yog ib qho ntawm cov lag luam tseem ceeb ntawm kev txhim kho thiab kev vam meej hauv zej zog. Nyob rau xyoo tas los no, kev tsim cov hlau nyoos thoob ntiaj teb tau tswj hwm kev loj hlob ruaj khov. Hlau siv dav hauv tsheb, kev tsim kho, kev ntim khoom thiab kev lag luam tsheb ciav hlau, thiab kev siv hlau thoob ntiaj teb kuj tau nce ntxiv tas li. Tib lub sijhawm, qhov zoo ntawm cov khoom hlau tau zoo dua thiab cov cai tiv thaiv ib puag ncig tau nce ntxiv. Qee cov chaw tsim khoom hlau tig mus rau kev tsim cov hlau arc furnace, thaum graphite electrode tseem ceeb heev rau arc furnace, yog li txhim kho qhov xav tau zoo ntawm graphite electrode. Hlau thiab hlau smelting yog qhov chaw siv tseem ceeb ntawm graphite electrode, suav txog li 80% ntawm tag nrho cov kev siv graphite electrode. Hauv hlau thiab hlau smelting, hluav taws xob furnace steelmaking suav txog li 50% ntawm tag nrho cov kev siv graphite electrode, thiab refining sab nraum lub cub tawg suav txog ntau dua 25% ntawm tag nrho cov kev siv graphite electrode. Hauv ntiaj teb, xyoo 2015, feem pua ntawm tag nrho cov hlau nyoos hauv ntiaj teb yog 25.2%, 62.7%, 39.4% thiab 22.9% feem ntau hauv Tebchaws Meskas, 27 lub tebchaws ntawm European Union thiab Nyiv, thaum xyoo 2015, Tuam Tshoj lub cub hluav taws xob cov hlau nyoos tsim tawm yog 5.9%, uas qis dua li theem ntiaj teb. Nyob rau hauv lub sijhawm ntev, cov txheej txheem luv luv muaj qhov zoo dua li cov txheej txheem ntev. Kev lag luam hlau tshwj xeeb nrog EAF ua cov khoom siv tseem ceeb yuav tsim kho sai. Cov peev txheej pov tseg ntawm cov khoom siv raw ntawm EAF hlau yuav muaj qhov chaw loj yav tom ntej. Yog li ntawd, EAF steelmaking yuav tsim kho sai, yog li ua rau muaj kev thov ntawm graphite electrode. Los ntawm qhov kev pom ntawm kev siv tshuab, EAF yog cov khoom siv tseem ceeb ntawm kev ua hlau luv luv. Cov txheej txheem luv luv steelmaking thev naus laus zis muaj qhov zoo hauv kev ua haujlwm zoo, kev tiv thaiv ib puag ncig, kev nqis peev hauv kev tsim kho thiab kev ywj pheej ntawm cov txheej txheem; los ntawm downstream, kwv yees li 70% ntawm cov hlau tshwj xeeb thiab 100% ntawm cov hlau alloy siab hauv Suav teb yog tsim los ntawm arc cub. Xyoo 2016, cov hlau tshwj xeeb hauv Suav teb tsuas yog 1/5 ntawm Nyiv Pooj, thiab cov khoom siv hlau tshwj xeeb siab tsuas yog tsim tawm hauv Nyiv Pooj. Qhov feem pua ntawm tag nrho tsuas yog 1/8 ntawm Nyiv Pooj. Kev txhim kho yav tom ntej ntawm cov hlau tshwj xeeb siab hauv Suav teb yuav tsav tsheb kev txhim kho graphite electrode rau cov hlau hluav taws xob thiab cov hlau hluav taws xob; yog li ntawd, kev khaws cia cov peev txheej hlau thiab kev siv cov khoom seem hauv Suav teb muaj qhov chaw loj hlob, thiab lub hauv paus ntawm kev ua hlau luv luv yav tom ntej muaj zog.
Cov zis ntawm graphite electrode yog sib xws nrog qhov kev hloov pauv ntawm cov zis ntawm cov hlau hluav taws xob. Kev nce ntawm cov zis ntawm cov hlau hluav taws xob yuav tsav qhov kev thov ntawm graphite electrode yav tom ntej. Raws li cov ntaub ntawv ntawm lub koom haum hlau thiab hlau thoob ntiaj teb thiab Tuam Tshoj Carbon Industry Association, cov zis ntawm cov hlau hluav taws xob hauv Tuam Tshoj xyoo 2019 yog 127.4 lab tons, thiab cov zis ntawm graphite electrode yog 7421000 tons. Cov zis thiab kev loj hlob ntawm graphite electrode hauv Tuam Tshoj muaj feem cuam tshuam nrog cov zis thiab kev loj hlob ntawm cov hlau hluav taws xob hauv Tuam Tshoj. Los ntawm qhov pom ntawm kev tsim khoom, cov zis ntawm cov hlau hluav taws xob hauv xyoo 2011 tau mus txog nws qhov siab tshaj plaws, tom qab ntawd nws poob qis txhua xyoo, thiab cov zis ntawm graphite electrode hauv Tuam Tshoj kuj poob qis txhua xyoo tom qab xyoo 2011. Xyoo 2016, Ministry of Industry thiab Information Technology tau nkag mus rau kwv yees li 205 lub cub hluav taws xob ntawm cov tuam txhab ua hlau, nrog rau kev tsim khoom ntawm 45 lab tons, suav txog 6.72% ntawm lub teb chaws cov hlau nyoos hauv xyoo tam sim no. Xyoo 2017, muaj 127 lub tshiab ntxiv, nrog rau kev tsim khoom ntawm 75 lab tons, suav txog 9.32% ntawm tag nrho cov hlau nyoos tsim tawm hauv tib lub xyoo; xyoo 2018, muaj 34 lub tshiab ntxiv, nrog rau kev tsim khoom ntawm 100 lab tons, suav txog 11% ntawm tag nrho cov hlau nyoos tsim tawm hauv xyoo tam sim no; xyoo 2019, cov cub hluav taws xob uas muaj tsawg dua 50t raug tshem tawm, thiab cov cub hluav taws xob tshiab thiab tsim tawm hauv Suav teb ntau dua 355, suav txog ib feem pua Nws mus txog 12.8%. Qhov feem pua ntawm kev tsim hluav taws xob hauv Suav teb tseem qis dua qhov nruab nrab thoob ntiaj teb, tab sis qhov sib txawv pib nqaim zuj zus. Los ntawm tus nqi loj hlob, cov zis ntawm graphite electrode qhia txog kev hloov pauv thiab poob qis. Xyoo 2015, qhov kev poob qis ntawm kev tsim hlau ntawm cov cub hluav taws xob tsis muaj zog, thiab cov zis ntawm graphite electrode txo qis. Qhov feem pua ntawm cov zis hlau yav tom ntej yuav loj dua, uas yuav tsav qhov chaw thov yav tom ntej ntawm graphite electrode rau cub hluav taws xob.
Raws li txoj cai hloov kho ntawm kev lag luam hlau uas tau tshaj tawm los ntawm Ministry of Industry thiab Information Technology, nws tau pom zoo meej tias "txhawb kom txhawb nqa kev siv cov txheej txheem luv luv thiab cov khoom siv nrog cov hlau seem ua cov khoom siv raw. Los ntawm xyoo 2025, qhov sib piv ntawm cov hlau seem ntawm cov tuam txhab hlau Suav yuav tsum tsis pub tsawg dua 30%. Nrog rau kev tsim kho ntawm txoj kev npaj tsib xyoos thib 14 hauv ntau qhov chaw, nws xav tias qhov sib piv ntawm cov txheej txheem luv luv yuav txhim kho qhov kev thov ntawm graphite electrode, cov khoom siv tseem ceeb hauv upstream.
Tsuas yog Tuam Tshoj xwb, cov teb chaws tsim cov hlau loj hauv ntiaj teb, xws li Tebchaws Meskas, Nyiv Pooj thiab Kaus Lim Qab Teb, feem ntau yog cov uas ua cov hlau hluav taws xob, uas xav tau ntau cov graphite electrodes, thaum Tuam Tshoj lub peev xwm graphite electrode suav txog ntau dua 50% ntawm lub peev xwm thoob ntiaj teb, uas ua rau Tuam Tshoj yog tus xa tawm cov graphite electrodes. Xyoo 2018, Tuam Tshoj cov khoom xa tawm graphite electrode tau txog 287000 tons, nce 21.11% xyoo-rau-xyoo, tswj hwm qhov kev loj hlob, thiab nce ntxiv rau peb xyoos sib law liag. Nws xav tias qhov ntim xa tawm ntawm graphite electrode hauv Tuam Tshoj yuav nce mus txog 398000 tons los ntawm xyoo 2023, nrog rau kev loj hlob txhua xyoo ntawm 5.5%. Ua tsaug rau kev txhim kho ntawm qib kev lag luam ntawm kev lag luam, Tuam Tshoj cov khoom graphite electrode tau maj mam lees paub thiab lees txais los ntawm cov neeg siv khoom txawv teb chaws, thiab cov nyiaj tau los ntawm kev muag khoom txawv teb chaws ntawm Tuam Tshoj cov tuam txhab graphite electrode tau nce ntxiv ntau. Piv txwv li, piv txwv li, kev lag luam graphite electrode ua tus thawj coj hauv Suav teb, nrog rau kev txhim kho tag nrho ntawm kev lag luam graphite electrode, vim nws muaj kev sib tw zoo ntawm cov khoom lag luam, Fangda carbon tau ua rau cov nyiaj tau los txawv teb chaws ntawm kev lag luam graphite electrode ntau ntxiv hauv ob xyoos dhau los. Kev muag khoom txawv teb chaws tau nce ntxiv los ntawm 430 lab yuan thaum lub sijhawm qis ntawm kev lag luam graphite electrode hauv xyoo 2016 mus rau xyoo 2018, cov nyiaj tau los txawv teb chaws ntawm kev lag luam graphite electrode suav txog ntau dua 30% ntawm tag nrho cov nyiaj tau los ntawm lub tuam txhab, thiab qib kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb tau nce ntxiv. Nrog rau kev txhim kho tas mus li ntawm qib kev txawj ntse thiab kev sib tw ntawm cov khoom lag luam ntawm kev lag luam graphite electrode hauv Suav teb, Tuam Tshoj cov graphite electrode yuav raug lees paub thiab ntseeg siab los ntawm cov neeg siv khoom txawv teb chaws. Qhov ntim xa tawm ntawm graphite electrode yuav nce ntxiv, uas yuav dhau los ua qhov tseem ceeb los txhawb kev zom cov graphite electrode hauv Suav teb.
3.2. Qhov cuam tshuam ntawm txoj cai tiv thaiv ib puag ncig rau qhov xwm txheej sib kis ua rau cov khoom siv graphite electrode nruj heev
Cov pa roj carbon dioxide ntawm cov txheej txheem ntev ntawm kev ua hlau luv luv hauv lub cub hluav taws xob raug txo qis. Raws li txoj kev npaj tsib xyoos thib 13 ntawm kev lag luam hlau pov tseg, piv nrog kev ua hlau hlau, kev tso tawm ntawm 1.6 tons ntawm carbon dioxide thiab 3 tons ntawm cov khib nyiab khov kho tuaj yeem txo qis los ntawm kev siv 1 tons ntawm cov hlau pov tseg ua hlau. Muaj ntau cov txheej txheem koom nrog hauv kev lag luam hlau thiab hlau. Txhua cov txheej txheem yuav dhau los ntawm ntau yam kev hloov pauv tshuaj lom neeg thiab lub cev. Tib lub sijhawm, ntau yam khoom seem thiab cov khib nyiab yuav raug tso tawm thaum cov khoom xav tau raug tsim tawm. Los ntawm kev xam, peb tuaj yeem pom tias thaum tib qho kev tsim khoom ntawm 1 tons slab / billet, cov txheej txheem ntev uas muaj cov txheej txheem sintering yuav tso tawm ntau cov pa phem, uas yog qhov thib ob hauv cov txheej txheem ntev ntawm cov txheej txheem pellet, thaum cov pa phem tso tawm los ntawm kev ua hlau luv luv yog qis dua li cov txheej txheem ntev nrog cov txheej txheem sintering thiab cov txheej txheem ntev uas muaj pellet, uas qhia tau tias cov txheej txheem luv luv ua hlau zoo dua rau ib puag ncig. Yuav kom yeej qhov kev sib ntaus sib tua ntawm Blue Sky Defense, ntau lub xeev hauv Suav teb tau tshaj tawm cov ntawv ceeb toom ntawm qhov siab tshaj plaws ntawm kev tsim khoom thaum lub caij ntuj no thiab lub caij nplooj ntoo hlav, thiab tau ua cov kev npaj tsim khoom rau cov lag luam tseem ceeb ntsig txog roj xws li hlau, tsis yog hlau, coking, kev lag luam tshuaj lom neeg, cov ntaub ntawv tsim kho thiab casting. Ntawm lawv, yog tias kev siv hluav taws xob, kev tiv thaiv ib puag ncig thiab kev nyab xeeb ntawm cov lag luam carbon thiab ferroalloy uas graphite electrode koom nrog tsis ua raws li cov kev cai tsim nyog, qee lub xeev tau hais meej meej tias yuav tsum txwv kev tsim khoom lossis nres kev tsim khoom raws li qhov xwm txheej tiag tiag.
3.3. Cov qauv kev muab khoom thiab kev thov ntawm graphite electrode maj mam hloov pauv
Kab mob coronavirus tshiab uas tshwm sim los ntawm kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb qeeb thiab qee qhov kev cuam tshuam ntawm kev tiv thaiv hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm xyoo 2020, ua rau qhov kev thov thiab tus nqi muag khoom ntawm graphite electrode hauv kev lag luam hauv tsev thiab txawv teb chaws poob qis, thiab cov tuam txhab graphite electrode hauv kev lag luam txo qis kev tsim khoom, nres kev tsim khoom thiab ua rau poob. Hauv lub sijhawm luv luv thiab nruab nrab, ntxiv rau qhov kev cia siab ntawm Tuam Tshoj kom txhim kho qhov kev thov rau graphite electrode, lub peev xwm ntawm graphite electrode txawv teb chaws yuav raug txwv nyob rau hauv kev cuam tshuam ntawm kev sib kis, uas yuav ua rau qhov xwm txheej ntawm kev muab khoom nruj ntawm graphite electrode hnyav dua.
Txij li thaum lub quarter thib plaub ntawm xyoo 2020, cov khoom muag ntawm graphite electrode tau poob qis tas li, thiab tus nqi pib ua lag luam tau nce ntxiv. Txij li xyoo 2019, tag nrho cov khoom muag ntawm graphite electrode hauv Suav teb tau ntau dhau lawm, thiab cov tuam txhab graphite electrode kuj tswj tau qhov kev pib ua lag luam zoo. Txawm hais tias kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb poob qis hauv xyoo 2020, qhov cuam tshuam ntawm cov chaw tsim hlau txawv teb chaws uas cuam tshuam los ntawm COVID-19 feem ntau yog nyob rau hauv kev khiav, tab sis Tuam Tshoj cov hlau nyoos tseem loj hlob ruaj khov. Txawm li cas los xij, tus nqi ntawm kev lag luam graphite electrode raug cuam tshuam los ntawm kev muab khoom lag luam ntau dua, thiab tus nqi txuas ntxiv poob qis, thiab cov tuam txhab graphite electrode tau raug kev poob loj. Qee lub tuam txhab graphite electrode loj hauv Suav teb tau siv cov khoom muag ntau heev hauv lub Plaub Hlis thiab Tsib Hlis 2020. Tam sim no, kev muab khoom thiab kev thov ntawm kev lag luam siab heev thiab loj heev nyob ze rau qhov sib npaug ntawm kev muab khoom thiab kev thov. Txawm tias qhov kev thov tseem tsis hloov pauv, hnub ntawm kev muab khoom thiab kev thov ntau dua yuav los sai sai no.
Kev loj hlob sai ntawm kev siv cov khoom seem ua rau muaj kev thov ntau ntxiv. Kev siv cov hlau seem tau nce ntxiv los ntawm 88.29 lab tons hauv xyoo 2014 mus rau 18781 lab tons hauv xyoo 2018, thiab CAGR tau txog 20.8%. Nrog rau kev qhib txoj cai hauv tebchaws txog kev xa cov hlau seem thiab kev nce ntawm qhov sib piv ntawm kev siv hluav taws xob hauv lub cub tawg, nws xav tias kev siv cov hlau seem yuav nce ntxiv sai. Ntawm qhov tod tes, vim tias tus nqi ntawm cov hlau seem feem ntau cuam tshuam los ntawm kev thov txawv teb chaws, tus nqi ntawm cov hlau seem txawv teb chaws tau nce siab heev hauv ib nrab xyoo tom ntej ntawm xyoo 2020 vim muaj kev cuam tshuam ntawm Tuam Tshoj pib xa cov hlau seem. Tam sim no, tus nqi ntawm cov hlau seem nyob rau theem siab, thiab nws tau pib rov qab los txij li xyoo 2021. Kev txo qis ntawm kev thov los ntawm kev cuam tshuam ntawm qhov xwm txheej sib kis txawv teb chaws xav tias yuav txuas ntxiv cuam tshuam rau kev poob qis ntawm cov hlau seem. Nws xav tias tus nqi ntawm cov hlau seem yuav txuas ntxiv raug cuam tshuam rau thawj ib nrab ntawm xyoo 2021 Lub lattice yuav oscillating thiab downward, uas kuj yog qhov zoo rau kev txhim kho ntawm lub cub tawg pib-up tus nqi thiab qhov kev thov ntawm graphite electrode.
Tag nrho cov kev xav tau ntawm cov hlau hluav taws xob thoob ntiaj teb thiab cov hlau tsis yog hluav taws xob hauv xyoo 2019 thiab 2020 yog 1376800 tons thiab 14723 lab tons raws li. Nws tau kwv yees tias tag nrho cov kev xav tau thoob ntiaj teb yuav nce ntxiv hauv tsib xyoos tom ntej, thiab ncav cuag 2.1444 lab tons hauv xyoo 2025. Qhov kev xav tau rau cov hlau hluav taws xob hauv hluav taws xob suav nrog feem ntau ntawm tag nrho. Nws tau kwv yees tias qhov kev xav tau yuav ncav cuag 1.8995 lab tons hauv xyoo 2025.
Xyoo 2019 thiab 2020, kev thov thoob ntiaj teb rau cov electrodes graphite yog 1376800 tons thiab 14723 lab tons. Kwv yees tias kev thov thoob ntiaj teb yuav nce ntxiv rau tsib xyoos tom ntej, thiab yuav nce mus txog 2.1444 lab tons hauv xyoo 2025. Lub caij no, xyoo 2021 thiab 2022, kev muab khoom thoob ntiaj teb ntawm cov electrodes graphite yog ntau dua 267 thiab 16000 tons. Tom qab xyoo 2023, yuav muaj kev tsis txaus, nrog rau qhov sib txawv ntawm -17900 tons, 39000 tons thiab -24000 tons.
Xyoo 2019 thiab 2020, kev thov thoob ntiaj teb rau UHP graphite electrodes yog 9087000 tons thiab 986400 tons feem. Nws tau kwv yees tias qhov kev thov thoob ntiaj teb tag nrho yuav nce ntxiv hauv tsib xyoos tom ntej, thiab ncav cuag li 1.608 lab tons hauv xyoo 2025. Lub caij no, xyoo 2021 thiab 2022, kev muab khoom thoob ntiaj teb ntawm graphite electrodes yog ntau dua 775 thiab 61500 tons feem. Tom qab xyoo 2023, yuav muaj kev tsis txaus, nrog rau qhov sib txawv ntawm -08000 tons, 26300 tons thiab -67300 tons.
Txij li ib nrab xyoo 2020 txog rau lub Ib Hlis 2021, tus nqi thoob ntiaj teb ntawm ultra-high-power graphite electrode tau txo qis los ntawm 27000 / t mus rau 24000 / T. Nws kwv yees tias lub tuam txhab tseem tuaj yeem ua tau txiaj ntsig ntawm 1922-2067 yuan / ton ntawm tus nqi tam sim no. Xyoo 2021, qhov kev thov thoob ntiaj teb rau ultra-high-power graphite electrodes yuav nce ntxiv, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog kev xa khoom cua sov yuav txuas ntxiv rub qhov kev thov rau ultra-high-power graphite, thiab tus nqi pib graphite electrode yuav txuas ntxiv nce. Nws xav tias tus nqi ntawm UHP graphite electrode hauv xyoo 2021 yuav nce mus rau 26000 / t los ntawm ib nrab xyoo tom ntej, thiab qhov txiaj ntsig yuav nce mus rau 3922-4067 yuan / ton. Nrog rau kev nce ntxiv ntawm tag nrho cov kev thov rau ultra-high power graphite electrodes yav tom ntej, qhov chaw txiaj ntsig yuav nce ntxiv.
Txij li thaum Lub Ib Hlis Ntuj xyoo 2021, tus nqi thoob ntiaj teb ntawm cov hluav taws xob graphite electrode yog 11500-12500 yuan / ton. Raws li tus nqi tam sim no thiab tus nqi ua lag luam, qhov txiaj ntsig ntawm cov hluav taws xob graphite electrode yog kwv yees li -264-1404 yuan / ton, uas tseem nyob hauv qhov poob. Tus nqi tam sim no ntawm cov hluav taws xob graphite electrode nrog lub zog ib txwm tau nce los ntawm 10000 yuan / ton hauv peb lub hlis twg ntawm xyoo 2020 mus rau 12500 yuan / T. nrog rau kev rov zoo ntawm kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau hauv txoj cai carbon neutralization, qhov kev thov rau cov hlau cub tawg tau nce sai, thiab kev siv cov hlau seem txuas ntxiv mus, thiab qhov kev thov rau cov hluav taws xob graphite electrode kuj tseem yuav nce siab heev. Nws xav tias tus nqi ntawm cov hluav taws xob graphite electrode nrog lub zog ib txwm yuav raug tsa mus rau tus nqi siab dua hauv peb lub hlis twg ntawm xyoo 2021, thiab qhov txiaj ntsig yuav raug pom. Nrog rau kev thov thoob ntiaj teb rau cov hluav taws xob graphite electrodes ntawm lub zog dav dav txuas ntxiv nce ntxiv yav tom ntej, qhov chaw txiaj ntsig yuav maj mam nthuav dav.
4. Cov qauv kev sib tw ntawm kev lag luam graphite electrode hauv Suav teb
Cov chaw nruab nrab ntawm kev lag luam graphite electrode yog cov chaw tsim khoom graphite electrode, nrog rau cov tuam txhab ntiag tug ua cov neeg koom nrog. Tuam Tshoj txoj kev tsim khoom graphite electrode suav txog li 50% ntawm cov khoom lag luam thoob ntiaj teb ntawm graphite electrodes. Ua ib lub tuam txhab ua lag luam hauv Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam graphite electrode, feem ntawm kev ua lag luam ntawm square carbon graphite electrode hauv Tuam Tshoj yog ntau dua 20%, thiab lub peev xwm ntawm graphite electrode yog qhov thib peb hauv ntiaj teb. Hais txog qhov zoo ntawm cov khoom, cov tuam txhab loj hauv kev lag luam graphite electrode hauv Tuam Tshoj muaj kev sib tw thoob ntiaj teb muaj zog, thiab cov lus qhia txog cov khoom lag luam feem ntau ncav cuag qib ntawm cov khoom zoo sib xws ntawm cov neeg sib tw txawv teb chaws. Muaj kev sib cais hauv kev lag luam graphite electrode. Kev ua lag luam ntawm ultra-high-power graphite electrode feem ntau yog cov tuam txhab saum toj kawg nkaus hauv kev lag luam, thiab plaub lub tuam txhab saum toj kawg nkaus suav txog ntau dua 80% ntawm feem ntawm kev ua lag luam ntawm UHP graphite electrode kev ua lag luam, thiab qhov kev sib sau ua ke ntawm kev lag luam yog qhov pom tseeb.
Hauv kev lag luam electrode graphite muaj zog heev, cov tuam txhab graphite electrode loj hauv nruab nrab muaj hwj chim sib tham zoo rau kev lag luam hlau, thiab xav kom cov neeg siv khoom them nyiaj rau kev xa khoom yam tsis tau muab lub sijhawm them nyiaj. Cov electrode graphite muaj zog thiab cov electrode graphite muaj qhov txwv qis, kev sib tw ua lag luam hnyav thiab kev sib tw nqi tseem ceeb. Hauv kev lag luam electrode graphite muaj zog thiab cov electrode graphite muaj zog, ntsib kev lag luam hlau nrog kev sib sau ua ke ntau, cov tuam txhab graphite electrode me thiab nruab nrab muaj hwj chim sib tham tsis zoo rau cov tuam txhab, yog li muab sijhawm them nyiaj rau cov neeg siv khoom lossis txo tus nqi kom sib tw rau kev lag luam. Tsis tas li ntawd, vim muaj cov yam ntxwv tiv thaiv ib puag ncig nruj, lub peev xwm ntawm cov tuam txhab nruab nrab muaj tsawg heev, thiab tag nrho cov peev xwm siv ntawm kev lag luam tsawg dua 70%. Qee lub tuam txhab txawm tias zoo li raug txib kom tsum tsis txhob tsim khoom mus ib txhis. Yog tias kev vam meej ntawm kev lag luam smelting ntawm cov hlau, phosphorus daj thiab lwm yam khoom siv raw khoom lag luam hauv qab ntawm graphite electrode txo qis, qhov kev thov rau kev lag luam graphite electrode tsawg, thiab tus nqi ntawm graphite electrode tsis nce siab heev, qhov nce ntawm cov nqi ua haujlwm yuav ua rau muaj kev ciaj sia ntawm cov lag luam me thiab nruab nrab tsis muaj kev sib tw tseem ceeb, thiab maj mam tawm ntawm kev lag luam lossis yuav los ntawm cov lag luam graphite electrode lossis hlau loj.
Tom qab xyoo 2017, nrog rau kev nce sai ntawm cov txiaj ntsig hauv kev ua hlau hluav taws xob, qhov kev thov thiab tus nqi ntawm graphite electrode rau cov khoom siv hluav taws xob ua hlau kuj nce sai. Cov txiaj ntsig tag nrho ntawm kev lag luam graphite electrode tau nce ntau heev. Cov lag luam hauv kev lag luam tau nthuav dav lawv qhov ntau lawm. Qee lub lag luam uas tau tawm hauv kev lag luam tau maj mam muab tso rau hauv kev ua haujlwm. Los ntawm tag nrho cov zis ntawm graphite electrode, qhov concentration ntawm kev lag luam tau poob qis. Siv cov pa roj carbon square ua piv txwv, nws cov feem ntawm kev lag luam tag nrho tau poob qis los ntawm kwv yees li 30% hauv xyoo 2016 mus rau kwv yees li 25% hauv xyoo 2018. Txawm li cas los xij, raws li kev faib tawm tshwj xeeb ntawm cov khoom graphite electrode, kev sib tw hauv kev lag luam kev lag luam tau sib txawv. Vim yog cov kev xav tau siab ntawm ultra-high-power graphite electrode, qhov feem ntawm kev lag luam ntawm cov khoom ultra-high-power tau txhim kho ntxiv los ntawm kev tso tawm lub peev xwm tsim khoom ntawm cov lag luam taub hau kev lag luam nrog lub zog sib xws, thiab plaub lub taub hau sab saum toj suav rau ntau dua 80% ntawm cov feem ntawm kev lag luam ntawm cov khoom ultra-high-power. Hais txog lub zog sib xws thiab lub zog siab graphite electrode nrog cov kev cai tsawg, kev sib tw hauv kev ua lag luam maj mam nce ntxiv vim yog kev koom ua ke ntawm cov lag luam me thiab nruab nrab uas muaj zog tsis muaj zog thiab kev nthuav dav ntawm kev tsim khoom.
Tom qab ntau xyoo ntawm kev txhim kho, los ntawm kev qhia txog thev naus laus zis ntawm kev tsim cov graphite electrode, cov tuam txhab graphite electrode loj hauv Suav teb tau kawm txog cov thev naus laus zis tseem ceeb ntawm kev tsim cov graphite electrode. Cov thev naus laus zis tsim khoom thiab qib thev naus laus zis ntawm graphite electrode zoo ib yam li cov neeg sib tw txawv teb chaws, thiab nrog rau qhov zoo ntawm kev ua tau zoo, Tuam Tshoj cov tuam txhab graphite electrode tau ua lub luag haujlwm tseem ceeb hauv kev sib tw ua lag luam thoob ntiaj teb.
5. cov lus qhia txog kev nqis peev
Ntawm qhov kawg ntawm kev muab khoom, qhov kev sib sau ua ke ntawm kev lag luam graphite electrode tseem muaj chaw rau kev txhim kho, kev tiv thaiv ib puag ncig thiab kev txwv ntawm kev tsim khoom nce qhov sib piv ntawm kev tsim hluav taws xob hauv qhov cub hluav taws xob, thiab kev txhim kho tag nrho ntawm kev lag luam graphite electrode yog qhov zoo. Ntawm sab kev thov, rau lub hom phiaj ntawm kev txhim kho kev tsim khoom thiab txo kev siv hluav taws xob, yav tom ntej 100-150 tons UHP EAF yog qhov kev coj ua tseem ceeb, thiab kev txhim kho ntawm UHP EAF yog qhov sib txawv dav dav. Raws li ib qho ntawm cov khoom siv tseem ceeb ntawm UHP EAF, qhov kev thov ntawm cov electrode graphite loj ultra-high-power yuav nce ntxiv.
Kev vam meej ntawm kev lag luam graphite electrode tau poob qis hauv ob xyoos dhau los. Kev ua tau zoo ntawm cov tuam txhab graphite electrode hauv tebchaws tau poob qis heev hauv xyoo 2020. Kev lag luam tag nrho nyob rau theem ntawm kev cia siab qis thiab tsis muaj nqis. Txawm li cas los xij, peb ntseeg tias nrog kev txhim kho ntawm cov ntsiab lus tseem ceeb ntawm kev lag luam thiab maj mam rov qab los ntawm tus nqi ntawm graphite electrode mus rau qib tsim nyog, kev ua tau zoo ntawm cov tuam txhab ua lag luam hauv kev lag luam yuav tau txais txiaj ntsig zoo los ntawm kev rov qab los ntawm qab ntawm kev lag luam graphite electrode. Yav tom ntej, Tuam Tshoj muaj qhov chaw loj rau kev txhim kho kev ua hlau luv luv, uas yuav pab tau rau kev txhim kho graphite electrode rau EAF luv luv. Nws tau hais tias cov tuam txhab ua lag luam hauv kev lag luam graphite electrode yuav tsum tau tsom mus rau.
6. cov lus qhia txog kev pheej hmoo
Qhov feem pua ntawm kev lag luam hlau ua hluav taws xob hauv Suav teb tsis yog raws li qhov xav tau, thiab tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv raw rau graphite electrode hloov pauv ntau heev.
Lub sijhawm tshaj tawm: Plaub Hlis-13-2021