1. Uphuhliso lweshishini lesinyithi luqhuba ukukhula kwemfuno yehlabathi yee-electrode zegrafiti
1.1 intshayelelo emfutshane ye-graphite electrode
I-electrode yegrafayithiluhlobo lwezinto eziqhuba i-graphite ezimelana nobushushu obuphezulu. Luhlobo lwezinto eziqhuba i-graphite ezimelana nobushushu obuphezulu, ezenziwa ngokufaka izinto eziluhlaza, ukutyumza umgubo wokugaya, ukuxuba, ukuxuba, ukwenza, ukubhaka, ukufunxa, i-graphitization kunye nokucutshungulwa koomatshini, okubizwa ngokuba yi-artificial graphite electrode (i-graphite electrode) ukwahlula ekusebenziseni izulu Nangona kunjalo, i-graphite yi-graphite electrode yendalo eyenziwe ngezinto eziluhlaza. Ii-graphite electrodes zinokuqhuba umbane kwaye zivelise umbane, ngaloo ndlela zinyibilikisa isinyithi esisikiweyo okanye ezinye izinto eziluhlaza kwi-blast furnace ukuvelisa intsimbi kunye nezinye iimveliso zesinyithi, ezisetyenziswa kakhulu kwimveliso yentsimbi. I-graphite electrode luhlobo lwezinto ezinokumelana okuphantsi kunye nokuxhathisa i-thermal gradient kwi-arc furnace. Iimpawu eziphambili zemveliso ye-graphite electrode ngumjikelo omde wemveliso (ohlala iinyanga ezintathu ukuya kwezintlanu), ukusetyenziswa kwamandla amakhulu kunye nenkqubo yemveliso enzima.
Izinto ezisetyenziswa phezulu kwishishini le-graphite electrode yi-petroleum coke kunye ne-needle coke, kwaye izinto ezisetyenziswayo zenza inxalenye enkulu yeendleko zemveliso ye-graphite electrode, ezibalelwa ngaphezulu kwe-65%, kuba kusekho umsantsa omkhulu phakathi kobuchwepheshe bemveliso ye-needle coke yaseTshayina kunye netekhnoloji xa kuthelekiswa ne-United States neJapan, umgangatho we-needle coke yasekhaya kunzima ukuwuqinisekisa, ngoko ke iTshayina isaxhomekeke kakhulu ekungenisweni kwe-needle coke esemgangathweni ophezulu. Ngo-2018, ukunikezelwa okupheleleyo kwemarike ye-needle coke eTshayina yi-418000 tons, kwaye ukungeniswa kwe-needle coke eTshayina kufikelela kwi-218000 tons, okubalelwa ngaphezulu kwe-50%; ukusetyenziswa okuphambili kwe-graphite electrode kukwenziwa kwentsimbi ye-Electric arc furnace.
Uhlu oluqhelekileyo lwe-graphite electrode lusekelwe kwiimpawu zomzimba nezekhemikhali zeemveliso ezigqityiweyo. Phantsi kwalo mgangatho wohlulo, i-graphite electrode inokwahlulwa ibe yi-electrode ye-graphite yamandla aqhelekileyo, i-electrode ye-graphite yamandla aphezulu kunye ne-electrode ye-graphite yamandla aphezulu kakhulu. Ii-electrode ze-graphite zamandla ahlukeneyo zahlukile kwizinto ezikrwada, i-electrode resistivity, i-elastic modulus, amandla e-flexural, i-coefficient of thermal expansion, i-accreditable current density kunye namasimi okusetyenziswa.
1.2. Uphononongo lwembali yophuhliso lwe-graphite electrode eTshayina
I-graphite electrode isetyenziswa kakhulu ekunyibilikiseni isinyithi nentsimbi. Uphuhliso lweshishini le-graphite electrode laseTshayina luhambelana ngokusisiseko nenkqubo yokuhlaziya ishishini lesinyithi nentsimbi laseTshayina. I-graphite electrode eTshayina yaqala ngeminyaka yoo-1950, kwaye iye yafumana amanqanaba amathathu ukusukela oko yazalwa.
Imarike ye-graphite electrode kulindeleke ukuba itshintshe ngo-2021. Kwisiqingatha sokuqala sika-2020, echatshazelwe yimeko yobhubhane, imfuno yasekhaya yehle kakhulu, ii-odolo zangaphandle zalibaziseka, kwaye inani elikhulu lemithombo yeempahla lachaphazela imarike yasekhaya. NgoFebruwari 2020, ixabiso le-graphite electrode lenyuka ixesha elifutshane, kodwa kungekudala imfazwe yamaxabiso yaqina. Kulindeleke ukuba ngokubuyela kwimeko yesiqhelo kweemarike zasekhaya nezangaphandle kunye nokukhula kokunyibilikisa iziko lombane phantsi komgaqo-nkqubo we-carbon ongathathi hlangothi, imarike ye-graphite electrode kulindeleke ukuba itshintshe. Ukususela ngo-2020, njengoko ixabiso le-graphite electrode lisihla kwaye lihlala lizinzile, imfuno yasekhaya ye-graphite electrode yokwenza intsimbi ye-EAF iyanda ngokuthe ngcembe, kwaye umthamo wokuthumela ngaphandle we-graphite electrode yamandla aphezulu kakhulu uyanda kancinci kancinci, uxinzelelo lwemarike yeshishini le-graphite electrode laseTshayina luya kwanda ngokuthe ngcembe, kwaye ishishini liya kukhula kancinci kancinci.
2. Ipateni yokubonelela kunye nemfuno ye-graphite electrode kulindeleke ukuba ibuyele umva
2.1. Ukuguquguquka kwamaxabiso ehlabathi jikelele kwi-graphite electrode kukhulu kakhulu
Ukususela ngo-2014 ukuya ku-2016, ngenxa yokuncipha kwemfuno esezantsi, imakethi yehlabathi ye-graphite electrode yehla, kwaye ixabiso le-graphite electrode lahlala liphantsi. Njengezinto eziphambili ze-graphite electrode, ixabiso le-needle coke lehle laya kwi-$562.2 ngetoni ngo-2016. Njengoko iTshayina ingumthengisi we-needle coke, imfuno yeTshayina inefuthe elikhulu kwixabiso le-needle coke ngaphandle kweTshayina. Njengoko amandla abavelisi be-graphite electrode ehla ngaphantsi komgca weendleko zokuvelisa ngo-2016, uluhlu lwezinto zoluntu lufikelele kwinqanaba eliphantsi. Ngowama-2017, isiphelo somgaqo-nkqubo sarhoxisa i-intermediate frequency furnace yentsimbi yeDi Tiao, kwaye inani elikhulu le-crap iron langena kwi-furnace yesityalo sentsimbi, nto leyo eyabangela ukwanda ngequbuliso kwemfuno yeshishini le-graphite electrode eTshayina kwisiqingatha sesibini sowama-2017. Ukwanda kwemfuno ye-graphite electrode kwabangela ukuba ixabiso le-needle coke linyuke kakhulu ngo-2017, laza lafikelela kwi-US $3769.9 ngetoni ngo-2019, linyuke ngama-5.7 xa lithelekiswa nowama-2016.
Kwiminyaka yakutshanje, icala lemigaqo-nkqubo yasekhaya belixhasa kwaye likhokela inkqubo emfutshane yokwenza intsimbi ye-EAF endaweni yentsimbi eguqulayo, nto leyo ekhuthaze ukwanda kwemfuno ye-graphite electrode kwishishini lentsimbi laseTshayina. Ukususela ngo-2017, imakethi yentsimbi ye-EAF yehlabathi iye yachacha, nto leyo ekhokelele ekunqongophaleni kobonelelo lwe-graphite electrode yehlabathi. Imfuno yee-graphite electrodes ngaphandle kweTshayina inyuke kakhulu ngo-2017 kwaye ixabiso lafikelela kwinqanaba eliphezulu. Ukususela ngoko, ngenxa yotyalo-mali olugqithisileyo, imveliso kunye nokuthengwa, imakethi inesitokhwe ezininzi kakhulu, kwaye ixabiso eliqhelekileyo le-graphite electrode liye lehla ngo-2019. Ngo-2019, ixabiso le-uhhp graphite electrode lalizinzile kwi-US $8824.0 ngetoni, kodwa lahlala liphezulu kunexabiso lembali ngaphambi ko-2016.
Kwisiqingatha sokuqala sowama-2020, i-COVID-19 ikhokelele ekwehleni ngakumbi kwexabiso eliphakathi lokuthengisa lee-electrode ze-graphite, kwaye ixabiso le-needle coke lasekhaya lehle ukusuka kwi-8000 yuan / ton ukuya kwi-4500 yuan / ton ekupheleni kuka-Agasti, okanye i-43.75%. Ixabiso lemveliso ye-needle coke eTshayina yi-5000-6000 yuan / ton, kwaye uninzi lwabavelisi lungaphantsi kwenqanaba lokulinganisela lenzuzo nelahleko. Ngokubuyela kwimeko yesiqhelo kwezoqoqosho, imveliso kunye nokuthengiswa kwee-electrode ze-graphite eTshayina kuphucukile ukusukela ngo-Agasti, izinga lokuqala lentsimbi yesithando sombane ligcinwe kwi-65%, umdla wezityalo zentsimbi wokuthenga ii-electrode ze-graphite unyukile, kwaye uluhlu lophando lwemarike yokuthumela ngaphandle luye lwanda kancinci kancinci. Ixabiso le-electrode ye-graphite nalo liye landa ukusukela ngoSeptemba 2020. Ixabiso le-electrode ye-graphite ngokubanzi liye landa nge-500-1500 yuan / ton, kwaye ixabiso lokuthumela ngaphandle liye landa kakhulu.
Ukususela ngo-2021, ngenxa yemeko yobhubhane kwiPhondo laseHebei, uninzi lwezityalo ze-graphite electrode zivaliwe kwaye izithuthi zothutho zilawulwa ngokungqongqo, kwaye ii-electrode ze-graphite zasekuhlaleni azinakuthengiswa ngokuqhelekileyo. Ixabiso leemveliso eziqhelekileyo nezinamandla aphezulu kwimarike ye-graphite electrode yasekhaya linyukile. Ixabiso eliqhelekileyo le-uhp450mm specifications kunye nomxholo we-30% ye-needle coke kwimarike yi-15-15500 yuan / ton, kwaye ixabiso eliqhelekileyo le-uhp600mm specifications yi-185-19500 yuan / ton, ukusuka kwi-500-2000 yuan / ton. Ixabiso elinyukayo lezinto eziluhlaza likwaxhasa ixabiso le-graphite electrode. Okwangoku, ixabiso le-needle coke kuluhlu lwamalahle asekhaya limalunga ne-7000 yuan, uthotho lweoyile lumalunga ne-7800, kwaye ixabiso lokungenisa limalunga ne-1500 yeedola zaseMelika. Ngokutsho kolwazi lweBachuan, abanye abavelisi abaphambili ba-ode umthombo weempahla ngoFebruwari. Ngenxa yokugcinwa ngokusesikweni kwabathengisi abakhulu bezinto ezikrwada ekhaya nakwamanye amazwe ngo-Epreli, kulindeleke ukuba i-electrode yegrafiti ka-2021 isenendawo yokunyuka kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka. Nangona kunjalo, ngokunyuka kweendleko, ukuphela kwemfuno yokunyibilikisa i-furnace yombane kuya kuba buthathaka, kwaye ixabiso le-electrode yegrafiti kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka kulindeleke ukuba lihlale lizinzile.
2.2. Indawo yokukhula ye-electrode yegrafiti esemgangathweni ophezulu yasekhaya kunye namandla aphezulu kakhulu inkulu
Imveliso yee-electrode ze-graphite kwamanye amazwe iyancipha, kwaye amandla emveliso ikakhulu zii-electrode ze-graphite ezinamandla aphezulu kakhulu. Ukususela ngo-2014 ukuya ku-2019, imveliso ye-electrode ye-graphite yehlabathi (ngaphandle kweTshayina) yehle ukusuka kwiitoni ezingama-800000 ukuya kwiitoni ezingama-710000, kunye nesantya sokukhula sonyaka esidibeneyo se- - 2.4%. Ngenxa yokudilizwa kwezityalo ezinomthamo omncinci, ukulungiswa nokwakhiwa kwakhona kwendalo ixesha elide, amandla kunye nemveliso ngaphandle kweTshayina ziyaqhubeka nokuncipha, kwaye umsantsa phakathi kwemveliso kunye nokusetyenziswa uzaliswa zii-electrode ze-graphite ezithunyelwa ngaphandle yiTshayina. Ukusuka kwisakhiwo semveliso, imveliso yee-electrode ze-graphite ezinamandla aphezulu kakhulu kwamanye amazwe ibandakanya malunga ne-90% yemveliso iyonke yazo zonke ii-electrode ze-graphite (ngaphandle kweTshayina). I-electrode ye-graphite esemgangathweni ophezulu kunye namandla aphezulu kakhulu isetyenziswa kakhulu kwimveliso yentsimbi engagqwaliyo kunye nentsimbi ekhethekileyo. Umenzi ufuna ii-indexes eziphezulu zomzimba nezekhemikhali ezifana noxinano, ukhuselo kunye nomxholo wothuthu lwee-electrode ezinjalo.
Imveliso ye-graphite electrode eTshayina iqhubekile nokunyuka, kwaye amandla okuvelisa e-electrode ye-graphite esemgangathweni ophezulu kunye ne-ultra high power alinganiselwe. Imveliso ye-graphite electrode eTshayina yehle ukusuka kwiitoni ezingama-570000 ngo-2014 ukuya kwiitoni ezingama-500000 ngo-2016. Imveliso yaseTshayina ibuyele umva ukusukela ngo-2017 yaza yafikelela kwiitoni ezingama-800000 ngo-2019. Xa kuthelekiswa nemakethi ye-graphite electrode yehlabathi, abavelisi basekhaya banomthamo wokuvelisa i-graphite electrode ekumgangatho ophantsi, kodwa kwi-graphite esemgangathweni ophezulu kunye ne-ultra-high-power, amandla okuvelisa asekhaya alinganiselwe kakhulu. Ngo-2019, imveliso ye-graphite electrode ekumgangatho ophezulu yaseTshayina yi-86000 kuphela, ebalelwa malunga ne-10% yemveliso iyonke, eyahluke kakhulu kulwakhiwo lweemveliso ze-graphite electrode zangaphandle.
Ngokwembono yemfuno, ukusetyenziswa kwee-electrode ze-graphite kwihlabathi (ngaphandle kweTshayina) ngo-2014-2019 kusoloko kungaphezulu kunemveliso, kwaye emva ko-2017, ukusetyenziswa kuyanda minyaka le. Ngo-2019, ukusetyenziswa kwee-electrode ze-graphite ehlabathini (ngaphandle kweTshayina) bekuziitoni ezingama-890000. Ukususela ngo-2014 ukuya ku-2015, ukusetyenziswa kwee-electrode ze-graphite eTshayina kwehle ukusuka kwiitoni ezingama-390000 ukuya kwiitoni ezingama-360000, kwaye imveliso yee-electrode ze-graphite ezikumgangatho ophezulu nezinamandla aphezulu yehle ukusuka kwiitoni ezingama-23800 ukuya kwiitoni ezingama-20300. Ukususela ngo-2016 ukuya ku-2017, ngenxa yokubuyela kancinci kancinci kwamandla emarike yentsimbi eTshayina, umlinganiselo wokwenziwa kwentsimbi ye-EAF uyanda. Okwangoku, inani lee-EAF eziphezulu ezisetyenziswa ngabavelisi bentsimbi liyanda. Imfuno yee-electrode ze-graphite ezikumgangatho ophezulu ezinamandla aphezulu inyukile yaya kwi-580000 yeetoni ngo-2019, apho imfuno yee-electrode ze-graphite ezikumgangatho ophezulu ezinamandla aphezulu ifikelela kwi-66300 zeetoni, kwaye i-CAGR ngo-2017-2019 ifikelela kwi-68%. I-electrode ye-graphite (ingakumbi i-electrode ye-graphite enamandla aphezulu) kulindeleke ukuba ihlangabezane nemfuno ebangelwa kukukhuselwa kwendalo kunye nemveliso encinci ekupheleni kobonelelo kunye nokuvuleka kwentsimbi yesithando ekupheleni kwemfuno.
3. ukukhula kokunyibilikisa inkqubo emfutshane kuqhuba uphuhliso lwe-graphite electrode
3.1. imfuno yesithando sombane esitsha sokuqhuba i-graphite electrode
Ishishini lentsimbi lelinye lamashishini aphambili ophuhliso loluntu kunye nenkqubela phambili. Kwiminyaka yakutshanje, imveliso yentsimbi eluhlaza kwihlabathi liphela igcine ukukhula okuzinzileyo. Intsimbi isetyenziswa kakhulu kwishishini leemoto, ulwakhiwo, ukupakisha kunye noololiwe, kwaye ukusetyenziswa kwentsimbi kwihlabathi liphela kuye kwanda rhoqo. Kwangaxeshanye, umgangatho weemveliso zentsimbi uphuculwe kwaye imigaqo yokhuseleko lokusingqongileyo iyanda. Abanye abavelisi bentsimbi bajika baye kwimveliso yentsimbi ye-arc furnace, ngelixa i-graphite electrode ibaluleke kakhulu kwi-arc furnace, ngaloo ndlela kuphucula iimfuno zomgangatho we-graphite electrode. Ukunyibilikisa intsimbi kunye nentsimbi yeyona ndawo iphambili yesicelo se-graphite electrode, ebalelwa malunga ne-80% yexabiso lilonke le-graphite electrode. Kwi-iron kunye nentsimbi yokunyibilikisa intsimbi, ukwenza intsimbi ye-furnace yombane kubalelwa malunga ne-50% yexabiso lilonke le-graphite electrode, kwaye ukucocwa kwe-furnace yangaphandle kubalelwa ngaphezulu kwe-25% yexabiso lilonke le-graphite electrode. Ehlabathini, ngo-2015, ipesenti yemveliso iyonke yentsimbi eluhlaza ehlabathini yayiyi-25.2%, 62.7%, 39.4% kunye ne-22.9% ngokulandelelana eMelika, kumazwe angama-27 eManyano yaseYurophu naseJapan, ngelixa ngo-2015, imveliso yentsimbi eluhlaza yaseTshayina e-furnace yayingama-5.9%, eyayiphantsi kakhulu kunehlabathi. Kwixesha elide, iteknoloji yenkqubo emfutshane ineenzuzo ezicacileyo kunenkqubo ende. Ishishini lentsimbi ekhethekileyo eline-EAF njengesixhobo esiphambili semveliso kulindeleke ukuba likhule ngokukhawuleza. Izixhobo ezilahliweyo zezinto ezikrwada zentsimbi ye-EAF ziya kuba nendawo enkulu yophuhliso kwixesha elizayo. Ke ngoko, i-EAF steelmaking kulindeleke ukuba ikhule ngokukhawuleza, ngaloo ndlela inyuse imfuno ye-graphite electrode. Ngokwembono yobugcisa, i-EAF sesona sixhobo siphambili sokwenza intsimbi emfutshane. Iteknoloji yokwenza intsimbi emfutshane ineenzuzo ezicacileyo ekusebenzeni kakuhle kwemveliso, ukhuseleko lokusingqongileyo, iindleko zotyalo-mali lokwakha kunye nokuguquguquka kwenkqubo; ukusuka ngezantsi, malunga ne-70% yentsimbi ekhethekileyo kunye ne-100% yentsimbi ye-alloy ephezulu eTshayina iveliswa sisithando somlilo se-arc. Ngo-2016, imveliso yentsimbi ekhethekileyo eTshayina yi-1/5 kuphela yeyaseJapan, kwaye iimveliso zentsimbi ekhethekileyo eziphezulu ziveliswa eJapan kuphela. Umlinganiselo wento iyonke yi-1/8 kuphela yeyaseJapan. Uphuhliso lwexesha elizayo lwentsimbi ekhethekileyo ephezulu eTshayina luya kuqhuba uphuhliso lwe-graphite electrode yentsimbi yesithando somlilo sombane kunye nesithando sombane; ke ngoko, ukugcinwa kwezixhobo zentsimbi kunye nokusetyenziswa kwezinto ezilahliweyo eTshayina kunendawo enkulu yophuhliso, kwaye isiseko sezixhobo zokwenza intsimbi yexesha elifutshane kwixesha elizayo sinamandla.
Imveliso ye-graphite electrode ihambelana notshintsho lwemveliso yentsimbi yesithando sombane. Ukwanda kwemveliso yentsimbi yesithando somlilo kuya kuqhuba imfuno ye-graphite electrode kwixesha elizayo. Ngokwedatha ye-World Iron and Steel Association kunye ne-China Carbon Industry Association, imveliso yentsimbi yesithando sombane eTshayina ngo-2019 yi-127.4 yezigidi zeetoni, kwaye imveliso ye-graphite electrode yi-7421000 zeetoni. Imveliso kunye nezinga lokukhula kwe-graphite electrode eTshayina zinxulumene kakhulu nemveliso kunye nezinga lokukhula kwentsimbi yesithando sombane eTshayina. Ngokwembono yemveliso, imveliso yentsimbi yesithando sombane ngo-2011 ifikelele kwincopho yayo, emva koko yehla unyaka nonyaka, kwaye imveliso ye-graphite electrode eTshayina nayo yehla unyaka nonyaka emva ko-2011. Ngo-2016, uMphathiswa wezeMizi-mveliso kunye neTekhnoloji yoLwazi wangena kwii-oven zombane ezingama-205 zamashishini okwenza intsimbi, kunye nemveliso yeetoni ezingama-45 ezigidi, ezibalelwa kwi-6.72% yemveliso yentsimbi eluhlaza yesizwe kulo nyaka ukhoyo. Ngo-2017, kongezwe ezintsha ezili-127, kunye nemveliso yeetoni ezingama-75 ezigidi, ezibalelwa kwi-9.32% yemveliso iyonke yentsimbi ekrwada kunyaka omnye; ngo-2018, kongezwe ezintsha ezingama-34, kunye nemveliso yeetoni ezili-100 ezigidi, ezibalelwa kwi-11% yemveliso iyonke yentsimbi ekrwada kunyaka wangoku; ngo-2019, izitofu zombane ezineetoni ezingaphantsi kwama-50 zasuswa, kwaye izitofu zombane ezisandula ukwakhiwa neziveliswa eTshayina zazingaphezulu kwama-355, ezibalelwa kwinxalenye ethile. Ifikelele kwi-12.8%. Umlinganiselo wokwenziwa kwentsimbi yesitofu sombane eTshayina usengaphantsi kunomndilili wehlabathi, kodwa umsantsa uqala ukuncipha kancinci kancinci. Ukusuka kwinqanaba lokukhula, imveliso ye-graphite electrode ibonisa umkhwa wokutshintshatshintsha nokuhla. Ngo-2015, umkhwa wokwehla kwemveliso yentsimbi yesitofu sombane uyabuthathaka, kwaye imveliso ye-graphite electrode iyancipha. Umlinganiselo wemveliso yentsimbi kwixesha elizayo uya kuba mkhulu, nto leyo eya kuqhuba indawo yemfuno yexesha elizayo ye-graphite electrode yesitofu sombane.
Ngokwemigaqo-nkqubo yohlengahlengiso kushishino lwentsimbi ekhutshwe yiSebe lezoShishino kunye neTekhnoloji yoLwazi, kucetyiswa ngokucacileyo ukuba "kukhuthazwe ukukhuthazwa kwenkqubo yokwenza intsimbi yeenkqubo ezimfutshane kunye nokusetyenziswa kwezixhobo ngentsimbi ekrwada njengezinto eziluhlaza. Ngowama-2025, umlinganiselo wentsimbi yeshishini lentsimbi laseTshayina awuyi kuba ngaphantsi kwama-30%. Ngophuhliso lwesicwangciso seminyaka emihlanu se-14 kwiinkalo ezahlukeneyo, kulindeleke ukuba umlinganiselo wenkqubo emfutshane uya kuphucula ngakumbi imfuno ye-graphite electrode, izinto eziphambili kumsinga ophezulu.
Ngaphandle kweTshayina, amazwe avelisa intsimbi ehlabathini, njengeMelika, iJapan kunye neSouth Korea, ikakhulu enza intsimbi yesithando sombane, nto leyo efuna ii-electrode zegrafiti ezingaphezulu, ngelixa amandla e-electrode yegrafiti yaseTshayina ebangela ngaphezulu kwe-50% yamandla ehlabathi, nto leyo eyenza iTshayina ibe ngumthumeli we-electrode zegrafiti. Ngo-2018, umthamo wokuthumela ngaphandle we-electrode yegrafiti yaseTshayina ufikelele kwiitoni ezingama-287000, ukwanda kwe-21.11% unyaka nonyaka, kugcinwa indlela yokukhula, kunye nokwanda okukhulu kwiminyaka emithathu ilandelelana. Kulindeleke ukuba umthamo wokuthumela ngaphandle we-electrode yegrafiti eTshayina unyuke uye kwiitoni ezingama-398000 ngo-2023, kunye nezinga lokukhula lonyaka elihlanganisiweyo le-5.5%. Ngenxa yokuphuculwa kwenqanaba lobuchwephesha kushishino, iimveliso ze-electrode yegrafiti yaseTshayina ziye zaqatshelwa kwaye zamkelwe kancinci kancinci ngabathengi baphesheya, kwaye ingeniso yokuthengisa kwamanye amazwe yamashishini e-electrode yegrafiti yaseTshayina inyuke kakhulu. Umzekelo, xa sithatha ishishini le-graphite electrode eliphambili eTshayina, ngokuphuculwa ngokubanzi kweshishini le-graphite electrode, ngenxa yokhuphiswano oluqinileyo lwemveliso, i-Fangda carbon inyuse kakhulu ingeniso yaphesheya kweshishini le-graphite electrode kwiminyaka emibini yakutshanje. Intengiso yaphesheya kwehlabathi inyuke ukusuka kwi-430 yezigidi zeeyuan ngexesha lexesha eliphantsi leshishini le-graphite electrode ngo-2016 ukuya kuthi ga ngo-2018, ingeniso yaphesheya kweshishini le-graphite electrode ibinga ngaphezulu kwe-30% yengeniso iyonke yenkampani, kwaye isidanga sokwanda kwamazwe ngamazwe besisanda. Ngokuphuculwa okuqhubekayo kwenqanaba lobugcisa kunye nokhuphiswano lwemveliso kwishishini le-graphite electrode laseTshayina, i-graphite electrode yaseTshayina iya kuqatshelwa kwaye ithenjwe ngabathengi baphesheya kwehlabathi. Umthamo wokuthumela ngaphandle we-graphite electrode kulindeleke ukuba unyuke ngakumbi, nto leyo eya kuba yinto ephambili yokukhuthaza ukugaywa kwemveliso ye-graphite electrode eTshayina.
3.2. Impembelelo yomgaqo-nkqubo wokukhusela okusingqongileyo kwimeko yobhubhane ibangela ukuba ukunikezelwa kwe-graphite electrode kube nzima
Ukukhutshwa kwekhabhoni kwenkqubo ende yokwenza intsimbi emfutshane kwisithando sombane kuyancitshiswa. Ngokwesicwangciso seminyaka emihlanu se-13 soshishino lwentsimbi yenkunkuma, xa kuthelekiswa nokwenziwa kwentsimbi yesinyithi, ukukhutshwa kweetoni ezili-1.6 zekhabhoni diokside kunye neetoni ezi-3 zenkunkuma eqinileyo kunokunciphisa ngokusebenzisa itoni e-1 yokwenza intsimbi yenkunkuma. Uthotho lweenkqubo lubandakanyeka kushishino lwentsimbi nentsimbi. Inkqubo nganye iya kudlula kuthotho lotshintsho lweekhemikhali kunye nolwenyama. Kwangaxeshanye, iintlobo ezahlukeneyo zeentsalela kunye nenkunkuma ziya kukhutshwa ngelixa iimveliso ezifunekayo ziveliswa. Ngokubala, singafumanisa ukuba xa kuveliswa itoni e-1 yeslab / billet, inkqubo ende equlathe ukucocwa iya kukhupha ungcoliso oluninzi, oluyesibini kwinkqubo ende yepellet, ngelixa ungcoliso olukhutshwa kukwenziwa kwentsimbi yexesha elifutshane luphantsi kakhulu kunezo zenkqubo ende enenkqubo yokucocwa kunye nenkqubo ende equlathe ipellet, nto leyo ebonisa ukuba ukwenza intsimbi yexesha elifutshane kunobuhlobo ngakumbi nokusingqongileyo. Ukuze kuphunyezwe idabi lokukhusela isibhakabhaka esiluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka, amaphondo amaninzi eTshayina akhuphe isaziso semveliso ephakame kakhulu ebusika nasentwasahlobo, kwaye enze amalungiselelo emveliso ahlukeneyo kumashishini abalulekileyo anxulumene negesi afana nentsimbi, i-nonferrous, i-coking, imboni yeekhemikhali, izixhobo zokwakha kunye ne-casting. Phakathi kwazo, ukuba ukusetyenziswa kwamandla, ukhuseleko lokusingqongileyo kunye nokhuseleko lwamashishini e-carbon kunye ne-ferroalloy apho i-graphite electrode iphantsi kwayo ayaphumeleli ukuhlangabezana neemfuno ezifanelekileyo, amanye amaphondo acebise ngokucacileyo ukuba ukuthintelwa kwemveliso okanye ukumiswa kwemveliso kuya kuphunyezwa ngokwemeko yokwenyani.
3.3. Ipateni yokubonelela kunye nemfuno ye-graphite electrode itshintsha kancinci kancinci
I-pneumonia entsha ye-coronavirus ebangelwe kukuhla koqoqosho lwehlabathi kunye nempembelelo ethile yokukhusela kwisiqingatha sokuqala sika-2020, yenze i-graphite electrode kwimfuno yemarike yasekhaya neyangaphandle kunye nexabiso lokuthengisa lehla, kwaye amashishini e-graphite electrode kushishino anciphisa imveliso, amisa imveliso kwaye enza ilahleko. Ngexesha elifutshane neliphakathi, ukongeza kulindelo lokuba iTshayina iphucule imfuno ye-graphite electrode, amandla e-graphite electrode yaphesheya anokuthintelwa phantsi kwempembelelo yobhubhane, nto leyo eya kwenza imeko ibe mandundu ngakumbi yendlela yokubonelela nge-graphite electrode.
Ukususela kwikota yesine ka-2020, uluhlu lwee-electrode ze-graphite beluqhubeka luncipha, kwaye izinga lokuqalisa ishishini liye landa. Ukususela ngo-2019, ukunikezelwa kwe-electrode ye-graphite iyonke eTshayina kuye kwaba kukhulu kakhulu, kwaye amashishini e-graphite electrode nawo alawula ngempumelelo ukuqalisa ishishini. Nangona ukuhla koqoqosho lwehlabathi ngo-2020, impembelelo yee-steel mills zangaphandle ezichaphazelekileyo yi-COVID-19 ngokubanzi iyaqhubeka, kodwa imveliso yentsimbi eluhlaza yaseTshayina isakhula ngokuzinzileyo. Nangona kunjalo, ixabiso lemarike ye-graphite electrode lichaphazeleka ngakumbi kukunikezelwa kwemarike, kwaye ixabiso liyaqhubeka nokuhla, kwaye amashishini e-graphite electrode aphulukene kakhulu. Amanye amashishini amakhulu e-graphite electrode eTshayina asebenzise kakhulu olu luhlu ngo-Epreli nangoMeyi ka-2020. Okwangoku, ukunikezelwa kunye nemfuno yemarike ephezulu kakhulu nenkulu ikufutshane nenqanaba lokulinganisela ukunikezelwa kunye nemfuno. Nokuba imfuno ayitshintshi, usuku lokunikezelwa kunye nemfuno enzima ngakumbi luza kufika kungekudala.
Ukukhula ngokukhawuleza kokusetyenziswa kwezinto ezilahliweyo kukhuthaza imfuno. Ukusetyenziswa kwezinto ezilahliweyo kunyuke ukusuka kwi-88.29 yezigidi zeetoni ngo-2014 ukuya kwi-18781 yezigidi zeetoni ngo-2018, kwaye i-CAGR ifikelele kwi-20.8%. Ngokuvulwa komgaqo-nkqubo wesizwe wokungeniswa kwentsimbi elahliweyo kunye nokwanda kwenani lokunyibilikisa iziko lombane, kulindeleke ukuba ukusetyenziswa kwezinto ezilahliweyo kuqhubeke kukhuphuka ngokukhawuleza. Kwelinye icala, ngenxa yokuba ixabiso lentsimbi elahliweyo lichaphazeleka kakhulu yimfuno yaphesheya, ixabiso lezinto ezilahliweyo zaphesheya linyuke kakhulu kwisiqingatha sesibini sowama-2020 ngenxa yempembelelo yokuqala kweTshayina ukungenisa izinto ezilahliweyo. Okwangoku, ixabiso lentsimbi elahliweyo likwinqanaba eliphezulu, kwaye liqalile ukubuyela umva ukusukela ngo-2021. Ukwehla kwemfuno okubangelwe yimpembelelo yemeko yobhubhane kwamanye amazwe kulindeleke ukuba kuqhubeke kuchaphazela ukwehla kwentsimbi elahliweyo. Kulindeleke ukuba ixabiso lentsimbi elahliweyo liqhubeke nokuchaphazeleka kwisiqingatha sokuqala sowama-2021. I-lattice iya kuba itshintshatshintsha kwaye yehle, nto leyo ekwanceda ekuphuculeni izinga lokuqalisa i-oven kunye nemfuno ye-graphite electrode.
Imfuno iyonke yentsimbi yesithando sombane sehlabathi kunye nentsimbi engeyiyo yesithando somlilo ngo-2019 nango-2020 yi-1376800 tons kunye ne-14723 yezigidi zeetoni ngokwahlukeneyo. Kuqikelelwa ukuba imfuno iyonke yehlabathi iya kunyuka ngakumbi kwiminyaka emihlanu ezayo, kwaye ifikelele kwi-2.1444 yezigidi zeetoni ngo-2025. Imfuno yentsimbi yesithando somlilo sombane ibandakanya uninzi lwexabiso lilonke. Kuqikelelwa ukuba imfuno iya kufikelela kwi-1.8995 yezigidi zeetoni ngo-2025.
Imfuno yehlabathi ye-graphite electrodes ngo-2019 nango-2020 yi-1376800 tons kunye ne-14723 yezigidi zeetoni ngokwahlukeneyo. Kuqikelelwa ukuba imfuno iyonke yehlabathi iya kunyuka ngakumbi kwiminyaka emihlanu ezayo, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba ifikelele kwi-2.1444 yezigidi zeetoni ngo-2025. Okwangoku, ngo-2021 nango-2022, ukunikezelwa kwe-graphite electrodes kwihlabathi liphela bekungaphezulu kwe-267 kunye ne-16000 tons ngokwahlukeneyo. Emva ko-2023, kuya kubakho ukunqongophala kokunikezelwa, kunye nomsantsa weetoni -17900, iitoni ezingama-39000 kunye neetoni -24000.
Ngowama-2019 nangowama-2020, imfuno yehlabathi ye-UHP graphite electrodes yi-9087000 tons kunye ne-986400 tons ngokwahlukeneyo. Kuqikelelwa ukuba imfuno iyonke yehlabathi iya kunyuka ngakumbi kwiminyaka emihlanu ezayo, kwaye ifikelele malunga ne-1.608 yezigidi zeetoni ngo-2025. Okwangoku, ngo-2021 nangowama-2022, ukunikezelwa kwe-graphite electrodes kwihlabathi liphela bekungaphezulu kwe-775 kunye ne-61500 tons ngokwahlukeneyo. Emva kowama-2023, kuya kubakho ukunqongophala kokunikezelwa, kunye nomsantsa weetoni -08000, iitoni ezingama-26300 kunye neetoni -67300.
Ukususela kwisiqingatha sesibini sowama-2020 ukuya kuJanuwari 2021, ixabiso lehlabathi le-electrode ye-graphite enamandla kakhulu liye lehla ukusuka kwi-27000/t ukuya kwi-24000/T. Kuqikelelwa ukuba inkampani eyintloko isenokwenza inzuzo ye-1922-2067 yuan / ton ngexabiso langoku. Ngowama-2021, imfuno yehlabathi yee-electrode ze-graphite ezinamandla kakhulu iya kwanda ngakumbi, ingakumbi ukufudumala kokuthumela ngaphandle kulindeleke ukuba kuqhubeke nokutsala imfuno ye-graphite enamandla kakhulu, kwaye izinga lokuqala kwe-graphite electrode liya kuqhubeka linyuka. Kulindeleke ukuba ixabiso le-electrode ye-graphite ye-UHP ngo-2021 liya kwanda ukuya kwi-26000/t kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka, kwaye inzuzo iya kwanda ukuya kwi-3922-4067 yuan / ton. Ngokunyuka okuqhubekayo kwemfuno iyonke yee-electrode ze-graphite ezinamandla kakhulu kwixesha elizayo, indawo yenzuzo iya kwanda ngakumbi.
Ukususela ngoJanuwari 2021, ixabiso lehlabathi le-electrode ye-graphite yamandla aqhelekileyo yi-11500-12500 yuan / ton. Ngokwexabiso langoku kunye nexabiso lemarike, inzuzo ye-electrode ye-graphite eqhelekileyo iqikelelwa ukuba yi--264-1404 yuan / ton, esekwimeko yokulahlekelwa. Ixabiso langoku le-electrode ye-graphite yamandla aqhelekileyo linyuke ukusuka kwi-10000 yuan / ton kwikota yesithathu ka-2020 ukuya kwi-12500 yuan / T. kunye nokubuyela kancinci koqoqosho lwehlabathi, ngakumbi phantsi komgaqo-nkqubo wokungavumeli i-carbon, imfuno yentsimbi yesithando somlilo iyanda ngokukhawuleza, kwaye ukusetyenziswa kwentsimbi ekrwada kuyaqhubeka nokwanda, kwaye imfuno ye-electrode ye-graphite eqhelekileyo nayo iya kunyuka kakhulu. Kulindeleke ukuba ixabiso le-electrode ye-graphite yamandla aqhelekileyo linyuswe liye ngaphezulu kwexabiso kwikota yesithathu ka-2021, kwaye inzuzo iya kufezekiswa. Njengoko imfuno yehlabathi ye-electrode ye-graphite yamandla aqhelekileyo iqhubeka inyuka kwixesha elizayo, indawo yenzuzo iya kwanda kancinci kancinci.
4. Ipateni yokhuphiswano loshishino lwe-graphite electrode eTshayina
Iindawo eziphakathi kushishino lwe-graphite electrode ngabavelisi be-graphite electrode, kunye namashishini abucala njengabathathi-nxaxheba. Imveliso ye-graphite electrode yaseTshayina ibandakanya malunga ne-50% yemveliso yehlabathi ye-graphite electrodes. Njengeshishini eliphambili kushishino lwe-graphite electrode yaseTshayina, isabelo semarike se-square carbon graphite electrode eTshayina singaphezulu kwe-20%, kwaye amandla e-graphite electrode angowesithathu kwihlabathi. Ngokuphathelele umgangatho wemveliso, amashishini aphambili kushishino lwe-graphite electrode eTshayina anokhuphiswano olukhulu lwamazwe ngamazwe, kwaye iinkcukacha zobugcisa zeemveliso ngokusisiseko zifikelela kwinqanaba leemveliso ezifanayo zabakhuphisana bamanye amazwe. Kukho ukwahlukana kwimarike ye-graphite electrode. Imarike ye-ultra-high-power graphite electrode ihlalwa kakhulu ngamashishini aphezulu kushishino, kwaye amashishini amane aphezulu athatha ngaphezulu kwe-80% yesabelo semarike semarike ye-UHP graphite electrode, kwaye uxinano lweshishini lucacile.
Kwimarike ye-electrode ye-graphite enamandla aphezulu kakhulu, amashishini amakhulu e-electrode ye-graphite akwiindawo eziphakathi anamandla amakhulu okuxoxisana neshishini lokwenza intsimbi elisezantsi, kwaye afuna abathengi abasezantsi bahlawule ukuhambisa iimpahla ngaphandle kokubonelela ngexesha leakhawunti. Ii-electrode ze-graphite ezinamandla aphezulu kunye namandla aqhelekileyo zinomda wobugcisa ophantsi, ukhuphiswano olukhulu lwemarike kunye nokhuphiswano lwamaxabiso olubonakalayo. Kwimarike ye-electrode ye-graphite enamandla aphezulu kunye namandla aqhelekileyo, ejongene neshishini lokwenza intsimbi elinoxinzelelo oluphezulu olusezantsi, amashishini amancinci naphakathi e-electrode ye-graphite anamandla abuthathaka okuxoxisana nelisezantsi, ukuze anike abathengi ixesha leakhawunti okanye anciphise amaxabiso ukuze bakhuphisane nemarike. Ukongeza, ngenxa yezinto eziqinisa ukhuseleko lokusingqongileyo, amandla amashishini aphakathi anqongophele kakhulu, kwaye izinga lokusetyenziswa kwamandla lilonke leshishini lingaphantsi kwama-70%. Amanye amashishini abonakala ngathi yimeko yokuyalelwa ukuba ayeke ukuvelisa ngokungenasiphelo. Ukuba impumelelo yeshishini lokunyibilikisa isinyithi, i-phosphorus etyheli kunye nezinye izinto ezikrwada zoshishino ezisezantsi kwe-graphite electrode iyancipha, imfuno yemarike ye-graphite electrode incinci, kwaye ixabiso le-graphite electrode alinyuki kakhulu, ukunyuka kweendleko zokusebenza kuya kukhokelela ekusindeni kwamashishini amancinci naphakathi ngaphandle kokhuphiswano oluphambili, kwaye kancinci kancinci aphume kwimarike okanye afunyanwe yi-graphite electrode enkulu okanye amashishini esinyithi.
Emva kowama-2017, ngokonyuka ngokukhawuleza kwenzuzo ekwenzeni intsimbi yesithando sombane, imfuno kunye nexabiso le-graphite electrode yezinto ezisetyenziswayo zokwenza intsimbi yesithando sombane nayo inyuke ngokukhawuleza. Inzuzo iyonke yeshishini le-graphite electrode inyuke kakhulu. Amashishini kushishino andise ubungakanani bawo bemveliso. Amanye amashishini ayeke ukusebenza kwimarike aqaliswe ukusebenza kancinci kancinci. Ukusuka kwimveliso iyonke ye-graphite electrode, uxinaniso lweshishini luye lwehla. Ukuthatha i-square carbon ehamba phambili ye-graphite electrode njengomzekelo, isabelo sayo semarike siphela sehle ukusuka malunga nama-30% ngo-2016 ukuya malunga nama-25% ngo-2018. Nangona kunjalo, malunga nohlu oluthile lweemveliso ze-graphite electrode, ukhuphiswano kwimarike yeshishini luye lwahlulwa. Ngenxa yeemfuno zobugcisa eziphezulu ze-ultra-high-power electrode ye-graphite, isabelo semarike seemveliso zamandla aphezulu siphuculwa ngakumbi ngokukhulula amandla emveliso yamashishini amakhulu oshishino ngamandla obuchwephesha afanelekileyo, kwaye amashishini amakhulu amane aphezulu athatha ngaphezulu kwama-80% yesabelo semarike seemveliso zamandla aphezulu. Ngokuphathelele amandla aqhelekileyo kunye ne-electrode yegrafiti enamandla aphezulu eneemfuno zobugcisa eziphantsi, ukhuphiswano kwimarike luyanda kancinci kancinci ngenxa yokudibana kwakhona kwamashishini amancinci naphakathi anamandla obuchwephesha abuthathaka kunye nokwandiswa kwemveliso.
Emva kwamashumi eminyaka yophuhliso, ngokungeniswa kwetekhnoloji yokuvelisa i-graphite electrode, amashishini amakhulu e-graphite electrode eTshayina ayazi kakuhle itekhnoloji eyintloko yokuvelisa i-graphite electrode. Itekhnoloji yokuvelisa kunye nenqanaba letekhnoloji ye-graphite electrode iyafana neyabakhuphisana nabo baphesheya, kwaye ngeenzuzo zokusebenza ngexabiso eliphezulu, amashishini e-graphite electrode aseTshayina adlala indima ebalulekileyo kukhuphiswano lwemarike yehlabathi.
5. iingcebiso zotyalo-mali
Ekupheleni kobonelelo, ukuxinana kweshishini le-graphite electrode kusenendawo yokuphucula, ukhuseleko lokusingqongileyo kunye nomda wemveliso kwandisa umlinganiselo wokwenziwa kwentsimbi yesithando sombane, kwaye uphuhliso lulonke lweshishini le-graphite electrode lulungile. Kwicala lemfuno, ngenxa yokuphucula imveliso kunye nokunciphisa ukusetyenziswa kwamandla, i-100-150 yeetoni ze-UHP EAF yexesha elizayo yindlela ephambili yophuhliso, kwaye uphuhliso lwe-UHP EAF luyindlela eqhelekileyo. Njengenye yezinto eziphambili ze-UHP EAF, imfuno ye-electrode ye-graphite enamandla amakhulu kulindeleke ukuba inyuke ngakumbi.
Ukuchuma kweshishini le-graphite electrode kuye kwehla kwiminyaka emibini edlulileyo. Ukusebenza kweenkampani eziphambili zasekhaya ze-graphite electrode kuye kwehla kakhulu ngo-2020. Lonke eli shishini likwinqanaba lokulindela okuphantsi kunye nexabiso elingaphantsi. Nangona kunjalo, sikholelwa ukuba ngokuphuculwa kwezinto ezisisiseko zoshishino kunye nokubuyela kancinci kwexabiso le-graphite electrode kwinqanaba elifanelekileyo, ukusebenza kwamashishini aphambili kushishino kuya kuxhamla ngokupheleleyo ekubuyeni kwemarike ye-graphite electrode. Kwixesha elizayo, iTshayina inendawo enkulu yophuhliso lwentsimbi yenkqubo emfutshane, eya kunceda uphuhliso lwe-graphite electrode yenkqubo emfutshane ye-EAF. Kucetyiswa ukuba amashishini aphambili kwicandelo le-graphite electrode kufuneka agxile.
6. iingcebiso zomngcipheko
Umlinganiselo woshishino lokwenza intsimbi kwizitofu zombane eTshayina awunjengoko bekulindelwe, kwaye ixabiso lezinto ezikrwada ze-graphite electrode liyatshintshatshintsha kakhulu.
Ixesha lokuthumela: Epreli-13-2021