1. ukuthuthukiswa kwemboni yensimbi kuqhuba ukukhula kwesidingo somhlaba wonke sama-electrode e-graphite
1.1 isingeniso esifushane se-graphite electrode
I-electrode ye-graphiteuhlobo lwezinto eziqhuba i-graphite ezimelana nokushisa okuphezulu. Luhlobo lwezinto eziqhuba i-graphite ezimelana nokushisa okuphezulu, ezenziwa ngokugaya izinto zokusetshenziswa, ukuchoboza i-grinding powder, ukuhlanganisa, ukuxuba, ukwakha, ukubhaka, ukufaka i-grafiti kanye nokucubungula ngomshini, okubizwa ngokuthi i-artificial graphite electrode (i-graphite electrode) ukuhlukanisa nokusetshenziswa kwezulu. Kodwa-ke, i-graphite iyi-electrode yemvelo ye-graphite elungiselelwe ngezinto zokusetshenziswa. Ama-electrode e-graphite angaqhuba ugesi futhi akhiqize ugesi, ngaleyo ndlela ancibilikise insimbi eqoshiwe noma ezinye izinto zokusetshenziswa esithandweni somlilo ukuze akhiqize insimbi neminye imikhiqizo yensimbi, esetshenziswa kakhulu ekukhiqizeni insimbi. I-graphite electrode uhlobo lwezinto ezinokumelana okuphansi kanye nokumelana nokushisa okushisayo esithandweni somlilo se-arc. Izici eziyinhloko zokukhiqizwa kwe-graphite electrode umjikelezo wokukhiqiza omude (ngokuvamile ohlala izinyanga ezintathu kuya kwezinhlanu), ukusetshenziswa kwamandla amakhulu kanye nenqubo yokukhiqiza eyinkimbinkimbi.
Izinto zokusetshenziswa ezingenhla kochungechunge lwe-graphite electrode embonini ikakhulukazi i-petroleum coke kanye ne-needle coke, futhi izinto zokusetshenziswa zibiza ingxenye enkulu yezindleko zokukhiqiza i-graphite electrode, ezibalelwa ngaphezu kuka-65%, ngoba kusenegebe elikhulu phakathi kobuchwepheshe bokukhiqiza i-needle coke yaseShayina kanye nobuchwepheshe uma kuqhathaniswa ne-United States kanye ne-Japan, ikhwalithi ye-needle coke yasekhaya kunzima ukuyiqinisekisa, ngakho-ke iShayina isathembele kakhulu ekungenisweni kwe-needle coke esezingeni eliphezulu. Ngo-2018, inani eliphelele lemakethe ye-needle coke eShayina lalingamathani angu-418000, kanti ukungeniswa kwe-needle coke eShayina kufinyelela amathani angu-218000, okubalelwa ngaphezu kuka-50%; ukusetshenziswa okuyinhloko kwe-graphite electrode engezansi ukwenza insimbi yesithando sikagesi.
Ukuhlukaniswa okuvamile kwe-graphite electrode kusekelwe ezicini zomzimba nezamakhemikhali zemikhiqizo eqediwe. Ngaphansi kwale nqubo yokuhlukaniswa, i-graphite electrode ingahlukaniswa ibe yi-electrode ye-graphite yamandla avamile, i-electrode ye-graphite yamandla aphezulu kanye ne-electrode ye-graphite yamandla aphezulu kakhulu. Ama-electrode e-graphite anamandla ahlukene ahlukile ezintweni zokusetshenziswa, ukumelana kwe-electrode, i-modulus ye-elastic, amandla okuguquguquka, i-coefficient of thermal expansion, i-current density evumelekile kanye nezinkambu zokusetshenziswa.
1.2. Ukubuyekezwa komlando wokuthuthukiswa kwe-graphite electrode eShayina
I-electrode ye-graphite isetshenziswa kakhulu ekuncibilikiseni insimbi nensimbi. Ukuthuthukiswa kwemboni ye-electrode ye-graphite yaseShayina kuhambisana nenqubo yesimanje yemboni yensimbi nensimbi yaseShayina. I-electrode ye-graphite eShayina yaqala ngawo-1950, futhi ibhekane nezigaba ezintathu selokhu yazalwa.
Imakethe ye-graphite electrode kulindeleke ukuthi ihlehle ngo-2021. Engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2020, ethintwe yisimo sobhubhane, isidingo sasekhaya sehle kakhulu, ama-oda angaphandle abambezeleka, futhi inani elikhulu lemithombo yezimpahla lathinta imakethe yasekhaya. NgoFebhuwari 2020, intengo ye-graphite electrode yakhuphuka isikhashana, kodwa ngokushesha impi yamanani yaqina. Kulindeleke ukuthi ngokululama kwezimakethe zasekhaya nezangaphandle kanye nokukhula kokuncibilika kwesithando sikagesi ngaphansi kwenqubomgomo yokungathathi hlangothi kwekhabhoni yasekhaya, imakethe ye-graphite electrode kulindeleke ukuthi ihlehle. Kusukela ngo-2020, njengoba intengo ye-graphite electrode yehla futhi ithambekele ekuzinzeni, isidingo sasekhaya se-graphite electrode yokwenza insimbi ye-EAF sikhula kancane kancane, futhi inani lokuthumela kwamanye amazwe le-graphite electrode yamandla aphezulu kakhulu liyanda kancane kancane, ukuhlushwa kwemakethe ye-graphite electrode yaseShayina kuzokhula kancane kancane, futhi imboni izokhula kancane kancane.
2. Iphethini yokuhlinzekwa kanye nesidingo se-graphite electrode kulindeleke ukuthi ibuyele emuva
2.1. ukuguquguquka kwentengo yomhlaba wonke kwe-graphite electrode kukhulu kakhulu
Kusukela ngo-2014 kuya ku-2016, ngenxa yokuncipha kwesidingo esingezansi, imakethe yomhlaba wonke ye-graphite electrode yehla, futhi intengo ye-graphite electrode yahlala iphansi. Njengezinto ezisetshenziswa kakhulu ze-graphite electrode, intengo ye-needle coke yehle yaya ku-$562.2 ngethani ngo-2016. Njengoba iShayina ingumthengisi we-needle coke, isidingo seShayina sinomthelela omkhulu entengweni ye-needle coke ngaphandle kweShayina. Njengoba amandla abakhiqizi be-graphite electrode ehla ngaphansi komugqa wezindleko zokukhiqiza ngo-2016, isitokwe sezenhlalo safinyelela ezingeni eliphansi. Ngo-2017, inqubomgomo yakhansela isithando somlilo esiphakathi sensimbi ye-Di Tiao, futhi inani elikhulu lensimbi eqoshiwe lageleza esithandweni sesitshalo sensimbi, okwaholela ekwandeni okungazelelwe kwesidingo semboni ye-graphite electrode eShayina engxenyeni yesibili ka-2017. Ukwanda kwesidingo se-graphite electrode kwabangela ukuba intengo ye-needle coke ikhuphuke kakhulu ngo-2017, futhi yafinyelela ku-US $3769.9 ngethani ngo-2019, ikhuphuke izikhathi ezingu-5.7 uma kuqhathaniswa no-2016.
Eminyakeni yamuva nje, uhlangothi lwenqubomgomo yasekhaya belusekela futhi luqondisa inqubo emfushane yokwenza insimbi ye-EAF esikhundleni sensimbi eguqulayo, okukhuthaze ukwanda kwesidingo se-electrode ye-graphite embonini yensimbi yaseShayina. Kusukela ngo-2017, imakethe yensimbi ye-EAF yomhlaba wonke isiye yasimama, okuholele ekushodeni kokuhlinzekwa kwe-electrode ye-graphite yomhlaba wonke. Isidingo sama-electrode e-graphite ngaphandle kweShayina sakhuphuka kakhulu ngo-2017 futhi intengo yafinyelela ezingeni layo eliphakeme kakhulu. Kusukela ngaleso sikhathi, ngenxa yokutshalwa kwezimali ngokweqile, ukukhiqizwa kanye nokuthengwa, imakethe inesitokwe esiningi kakhulu, futhi intengo emaphakathi ye-electrode ye-graphite yehle ngo-2019. Ngo-2019, intengo ye-electrode ye-uhhp graphite yayizinzile ku-US $8824.0 ngethani, kodwa yahlala iphakeme kunentengo yangaphambilini ngaphambi kuka-2016.
Engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2020, i-COVID-19 yaholela ekwehleni okwengeziwe kwentengo yokuthengisa emaphakathi yama-electrode e-graphite, kanti intengo yasekhaya ye-needle coke yehle isuka ku-8000 yuan / ton yaya ku-4500 yuan / ton ekupheleni kuka-Agasti, noma u-43.75%. Izindleko zokukhiqiza i-needle coke eShayina zingama-yuan angu-5000-6000 / ton, futhi abakhiqizi abaningi bangaphansi kwesilinganiso senzuzo nokulahlekelwa. Ngokululama komnotho, ukukhiqizwa nokumakethwa kwama-electrode e-graphite eShayina kuthuthukile kusukela ngo-Agasti, izinga lokuqala lensimbi yesithando sikagesi ligcinwe ku-65%, intshiseko yezitshalo zensimbi yokuthenga ama-electrode e-graphite ikhuphukile, futhi uhlu lokubuza ngemakethe yokuthumela kwamanye amazwe lukhuphukile kancane kancane. Intengo ye-electrode ye-graphite nayo ibilokhu ikhuphuka kusukela ngoSepthemba 2020. Intengo ye-electrode ye-graphite ikhuphukile ngokuvamile ngama-yuan angu-500-1500 / ton, futhi intengo yokuthumela kwamanye amazwe ikhuphukile kakhulu.
Kusukela ngo-2021, lapho isimo sobhubhane eSifundazweni saseHebei sithinteke khona, izitshalo eziningi ze-graphite electrode zivaliwe futhi izimoto zokuhamba zilawulwa ngokuqinile, futhi ama-electrode e-graphite endawo awakwazi ukuthengiswa ngokujwayelekile. Intengo yemikhiqizo evamile nenamandla aphezulu emakethe ye-graphite electrode yasekhaya inyukile. Intengo ejwayelekile ye-uhp450mm specification enokuqukethwe kwe-needle coke okungu-30% emakethe ingu-15-15500 yuan / ton, kanti intengo ejwayelekile ye-uhp600mm specification ingu-185-19500 yuan / ton, ikhuphuke isuka ku-500-2000 yuan / ton. Intengo ekhuphukayo yezinto zokusetshenziswa isekela nentengo ye-graphite electrode. Njengamanje, intengo ye-needle coke ochungechungeni lwamalahle lwasekhaya icishe ibe ngu-7000 yuan, uchungechunge lwamafutha lucishe lube ngu-7800, kanti intengo yokungenisa icishe ibe ngu-1500 amadola aseMelika. Ngokusho kolwazi lweBachuan, abanye abakhiqizi abakhulu ba-ode umthombo wezimpahla ngoFebhuwari. Ngenxa yokugcinwa okuphakathi kwabahlinzeki abakhulu bezinto zokusetshenziswa ekhaya nakwamanye amazwe ngo-Ephreli, kulindeleke ukuthi i-electrode ye-graphite ka-2021 isazoba nendawo yokwenyuka engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka. Kodwa-ke, ngokukhuphuka kwezindleko, ukuphela kwesidingo sokuncibilikisa isithando sikagesi esingezansi kuzoba buthaka, futhi intengo ye-electrode ye-graphite engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka kulindeleke ukuthi ihlale izinzile.
2.2. isikhala sokukhula se-electrode ye-graphite yasekhaya esezingeni eliphezulu kanye namandla aphezulu kakhulu sikhulu
Ukukhishwa kwama-electrode e-graphite kwamanye amazwe kunciphile, kanti amandla okukhiqiza ikakhulukazi angama-electrode e-graphite anamandla aphezulu kakhulu. Kusukela ngo-2014 kuya ku-2019, ukukhiqizwa kwama-electrode e-graphite emhlabeni wonke (ngaphandle kweShayina) kwehle kusuka kumathani angu-800000 kuya kumathani angu-710000, ngesilinganiso sokukhula sonyaka esihlanganisiwe esingu-2.4%. Ngenxa yokubhidlizwa kwezitshalo ezinomthamo ophansi, ukulungiswa nokwakhiwa kabusha kwemvelo isikhathi eside, amandla nomkhiqizo ngaphandle kweShayina kuyaqhubeka nokwehla, futhi igebe phakathi kokukhipha nokusetshenziswa ligcwaliswa ama-electrode e-graphite athunyelwa yiShayina. Kusukela esakhiweni somkhiqizo, umkhiqizo wama-electrode e-graphite anamandla aphezulu kakhulu kwamanye amazwe ubiza cishe u-90% womkhiqizo ophelele wawo wonke ama-electrode e-graphite (ngaphandle kweShayina). I-electrode ye-graphite esezingeni eliphezulu nenamandla aphezulu kakhulu isetshenziswa kakhulu ekukhiqizweni kwensimbi engagqwali nensimbi ekhethekile. Umenzi udinga izinkomba eziphezulu zomzimba nezamakhemikhali ezifana nobuningi, ukumelana nokuqukethwe komlotha kwama-electrode anjalo.
Umkhiqizo we-graphite electrode eShayina uqhubekile nokwenyuka, futhi amandla okukhiqiza e-electrode ye-graphite esezingeni eliphezulu kanye ne-ultra high power anqunyelwe. Umkhiqizo we-graphite electrode eShayina wehle kusuka kumathani angu-570000 ngo-2014 kuya kumathani angu-500000 ngo-2016. Umkhiqizo waseShayina ubuye wanda kusukela ngo-2017 futhi wafinyelela amathani angu-800000 ngo-2019. Uma kuqhathaniswa nemakethe yomhlaba wonke ye-graphite electrode, abakhiqizi basekhaya banamandla okukhiqiza e-graphite electrode esezingeni eliphansi, kodwa nge-graphite esezingeni eliphezulu ne-ultra high power, amandla okukhiqiza asekhaya anqunyelwe kakhulu. Ngo-2019, umkhiqizo we-graphite electrode e-ultra-high-power eShayina ungamathani angu-86000 kuphela, okwenza cishe u-10% womkhiqizo wonke, ohluke kakhulu esakhiweni semikhiqizo ye-graphite electrode yangaphandle.
Ngokombono wesidingo, ukusetshenziswa kwama-electrode e-graphite emhlabeni (ngaphandle kweShayina) ngo-2014-2019 kuhlale kukhulu kunomkhiqizo, futhi ngemva kuka-2017, ukusetshenziswa kuyanda unyaka nonyaka. Ngo-2019, ukusetshenziswa kwama-electrode e-graphite emhlabeni (ngaphandle kweShayina) kwakungamathani angu-890000. Kusukela ngo-2014 kuya ku-2015, ukusetshenziswa kwama-electrode e-graphite eShayina kwehle kusuka kumathani angu-390000 kuya kumathani angu-360000, kanti umkhiqizo wama-electrode e-graphite asezingeni eliphezulu futhi anamandla aphezulu wehle kusuka kumathani angu-23800 kuya kumathani angu-20300. Kusukela ngo-2016 kuya ku-2017, ngenxa yokululama kancane kancane kwamandla emakethe yensimbi eShayina, isilinganiso sokwenza insimbi ye-EAF siyanda. Okwamanje, inani lama-EAF aphezulu asetshenziswa abakhiqizi bensimbi liyakhula. Isidingo sama-electrode e-graphite anamandla aphezulu kakhulu sikhuphuke safinyelela kumathani angu-580000 ngo-2019, okuthi kuwo, isidingo sama-electrode e-graphite anamandla aphezulu kakhulu sifinyelela kumathani angu-66300, kanti i-CAGR ngo-2017-2019 ifinyelela ku-68%. I-graphite electrode (ikakhulukazi i-graphite electrode enamandla aphezulu) kulindeleke ukuthi ihlangabezane nesidingo esiqhutshwa ukuvikelwa kwemvelo kanye nokukhiqizwa okulinganiselwe ekugcineni kokuhlinzekwa kanye nokugeleza kwensimbi yesithando ekugcineni kwesidingo.
3. ukukhula kokuncibilikisa inqubo emfushane kuqhuba ukuthuthukiswa kwe-electrode ye-graphite
3.1. isidingo sesithando esisha sikagesi sokushayela i-graphite electrode
Imboni yensimbi ingenye yezimboni eziyinhloko zentuthuko yomphakathi kanye nentuthuko. Eminyakeni yamuva nje, ukukhiqizwa kwensimbi engahluziwe emhlabeni wonke kuye kwaqhubeka nokukhula okuqhubekayo. Insimbi isetshenziswa kabanzi embonini yezimoto, yokwakha, yokupakisha kanye neyezitimela, kanti ukusetshenziswa kwensimbi emhlabeni wonke kuye kwanda kancane kancane. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ikhwalithi yemikhiqizo yensimbi ithuthukisiwe futhi imithetho yokuvikela imvelo iyanda. Abanye abakhiqizi bensimbi baphendukela ekukhiqizweni kwensimbi ye-arc furnace, kuyilapho i-graphite electrode ibaluleke kakhulu esithandweni se-arc, ngaleyo ndlela kuthuthukiswa izidingo zekhwalithi ye-graphite electrode. Ukuncibilikisa insimbi nensimbi kuyinkambu eyinhloko yokusetshenziswa kwe-graphite electrode, ebalelwa cishe ku-80% wokusetshenziswa okuphelele kwe-graphite electrode. Ekuncibilikiseni insimbi nensimbi, ukwenza insimbi yesithando sikagesi kubalelwa cishe ku-50% wokusetshenziswa okuphelele kwe-graphite electrode, kanti ukucwenga ngaphandle kwesithando kubalelwa ngaphezu kuka-25% wokusetshenziswa okuphelele kwe-graphite electrode. Emhlabeni, ngo-2015, iphesenti lomkhiqizo ophelele wensimbi engahluziwe emhlabeni lalingu-25.2%, 62.7%, 39.4% kanye no-22.9% ngokulandelana e-United States, emazweni angu-27 e-European Union kanye ne-Japan, kanti ngo-2015, ukukhiqizwa kwensimbi engahluziwe yase-China esithandweni sikagesi kwaba ngu-5.9%, okwakuphansi kakhulu kunezinga lomhlaba. Ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, ubuchwepheshe benqubo emfushane bunezinzuzo ezisobala kunenqubo ende. Imboni ekhethekile yensimbi ene-EAF njengemishini yokukhiqiza eyinhloko kulindeleke ukuthi ithuthuke ngokushesha. Imithombo yezinto zokusetshenziswa zensimbi ye-EAF izoba nendawo enkulu yokuthuthukiswa kwesikhathi esizayo. Ngakho-ke, ukwenziwa kwensimbi ye-EAF kulindeleke ukuthi kuthuthuke ngokushesha, ngaleyo ndlela kukhuliswe isidingo se-graphite electrode. Ngokombono wezobuchwepheshe, i-EAF iyimishini eyinhloko yokwenza insimbi yenqubo emfushane. Ubuchwepheshe bokwenza insimbi yenqubo emfushane bunezinzuzo ezisobala ekusebenzeni kahle kokukhiqiza, ukuvikelwa kwemvelo, izindleko zokutshalwa kwezimali zokwakha kanye nokuguquguquka kwenqubo; kusukela ezansi komfula, cishe u-70% wensimbi ekhethekile kanye no-100% wensimbi ene-alloy ephezulu eShayina kukhiqizwa yi-arc furnace. Ngo-2016, umkhiqizo wensimbi ekhethekile eShayina uyingxenye eyodwa kwezinhlanu kuphela yaseJapan, kanti imikhiqizo yensimbi ekhethekile ephezulu ikhiqizwa eJapan kuphela. Ingxenye yenani eliphelele liyi-1/8 kuphela yaseJapan. Ukuthuthukiswa kwesikhathi esizayo kwensimbi ekhethekile ephezulu eShayina kuzoqhuba ukuthuthukiswa kwe-graphite electrode yensimbi yesithando sikagesi kanye nesithando sikagesi; ngakho-ke, ukugcinwa kwezinsiza zensimbi kanye nokusetshenziswa kwezinsalela eShayina kunendawo enkulu yokuthuthukiswa, futhi isisekelo sezinsiza zokwenza insimbi yesikhathi esifushane esikhathini esizayo siqinile.
Umkhiqizo we-graphite electrode uhambisana noshintsho lomkhiqizo wensimbi yesithando sikagesi. Ukwanda komkhiqizo wensimbi yesithando kuzoqhuba isidingo se-graphite electrode esikhathini esizayo. Ngokusho kwedatha ye-World Iron and Steel Association kanye ne-China Carbon Industry Association, umkhiqizo wensimbi yesithando sikagesi eShayina ngo-2019 ungamathani ayizigidi ezingu-127.4, kanti umkhiqizo we-graphite electrode ungamathani angu-7421000. Umkhiqizo kanye nezinga lokukhula kwe-graphite electrode eShayina kuhlobene kakhulu nomkhiqizo kanye nezinga lokukhula kwensimbi yesithando sikagesi eShayina. Ngokombono wokukhiqiza, umkhiqizo wensimbi yesithando sikagesi ngo-2011 wafinyelela esicongweni sawo, wabe usuncipha unyaka nonyaka, kanti umkhiqizo we-graphite electrode eShayina nawo wehla unyaka nonyaka ngemva kuka-2011. Ngo-2016, uMnyango Wezimboni kanye Nobuchwepheshe Bolwazi wangena ezithandweni zikagesi ezingaba ngu-205 zamabhizinisi okwenza insimbi, ngokukhiqiza amathani ayizigidi ezingu-45, okwenza u-6.72% womkhiqizo wensimbi engahluziwe kazwelonke kulo nyaka wamanje. Ngo-2017, kwanezelwa ezintsha ezingu-127, kwakhiqizwa amathani ayizigidi ezingu-75, okwaba ngu-9.32% wesamba sokukhiqizwa kwensimbi engahluziwe ngonyaka ofanayo; ngo-2018, kwanezelwa ezintsha ezingu-34, kwakhiqizwa amathani ayizigidi ezingu-100, okwaba ngu-11% wesamba sokukhiqizwa kwensimbi engahluziwe ngonyaka wamanje; ngo-2019, izitofu zikagesi ezingaphansi kwama-50t zasuswa, kwathi izitofu zikagesi ezakhiwe futhi ezikhiqizwayo eShayina zazingaphezu kuka-355, okwaba ngu-12.8%. Ingxenye yokwenza insimbi yesitofu sikagesi eShayina isengaphansi kunesilinganiso somhlaba wonke, kodwa igebe liqala ukuncipha kancane kancane. Kusukela esilinganisweni sokukhula, umkhiqizo we-graphite electrode ukhombisa ukuthambekela kokuguquguquka nokwehla. Ngo-2015, ukuthambekela kokwehla kokukhiqizwa kwensimbi yesitofu sikagesi kuyancishiswa, futhi umkhiqizo we-graphite electrode uyancipha. Ingxenye yokukhiqizwa kwensimbi esikhathini esizayo izoba nkulu, okuzoqhuba isikhala sokufunwa kwe-graphite electrode yesitofu sikagesi esikhathini esizayo.
Ngokwenqubomgomo yokulungisa imboni yensimbi ekhishwe yi-Ministry of industry and information technology, kuphakanyiswa ngokusobala ukuthi "kukhuthazwe ukukhuthazwa kwenqubo yokwenza insimbi yenqubo emfushane kanye nokusetshenziswa kwemishini ngensimbi eqoshiwe njengezinto zokusetshenziswa. Ngo-2025, isilinganiso sezingcezu zokwenza insimbi zamabhizinisi ensimbi aseShayina akufanele sibe ngaphansi kuka-30%. Ngokuthuthukiswa kohlelo lweminyaka emihlanu lwe-14 emikhakheni ehlukahlukene, kulindeleke ukuthi isilinganiso senqubo emfushane sizothuthukisa kakhulu isidingo se-graphite electrode, into ebalulekile etholakala phezulu.
Ngaphandle kweShayina, amazwe amakhulu akhiqiza insimbi emhlabeni, njenge-United States, iJapan neNingizimu Korea, ikakhulukazi enza insimbi yesithando sikagesi, okudinga ama-electrode e-graphite amaningi, kuyilapho amandla e-electrode e-graphite yaseShayina enza okungaphezu kuka-50% womthamo womhlaba wonke, okwenza iShayina ibe ngumthengisi we-electrode ye-graphite. Ngo-2018, umthamo wokuthunyelwa kwe-electrode ye-graphite yaseShayina ufinyelele kumathani angu-287000, ukwanda okungu-21.11% unyaka nonyaka, kugcinwa umkhuba wokukhula, kanye nokwenyuka okukhulu iminyaka emithathu ilandelana. Kulindeleke ukuthi umthamo wokuthunyelwa kwe-electrode ye-graphite eShayina uzokwenyuka ufike kumathani angu-398000 ngo-2023, ngesilinganiso sokukhula sonyaka esihlanganisiwe esingu-5.5%. Ngenxa yokuthuthuka kwezinga lobuchwepheshe lomkhakha, imikhiqizo ye-electrode ye-graphite yaseShayina iye yaqashelwa futhi yamukelwa kancane kancane ngamakhasimende aphesheya kwezilwandle, futhi imali engenayo yokuthengisa kwamanye amazwe yamabhizinisi e-electrode ye-graphite yaseShayina ikhuphuke kakhulu. Uma sithatha imboni ehamba phambili ye-graphite electrode eShayina njengesibonelo, ngokuthuthuka okuphelele kwemboni ye-graphite electrode, ngenxa yokuncintisana kwayo okunamandla komkhiqizo, i-Fangda carbon inyuse kakhulu imali engenayo yaphesheya kwebhizinisi le-graphite electrode eminyakeni emibili yamuva nje. Ukuthengiswa kwamanye amazwe kukhuphuke kusuka ku-430million yuan esikhathini esiphansi semboni ye-graphite electrode ngo-2016 kuya ku-2018, imali engenayo yaphesheya kwebhizinisi le-graphite electrode yaba ngaphezu kuka-30% wemali engenayo iyonke yenkampani, futhi izinga lokwanda kwamazwe ngamazwe lalikhula. Ngokuthuthuka okuqhubekayo kwezinga lobuchwepheshe kanye nokuncintisana komkhiqizo embonini ye-graphite electrode yaseShayina, i-graphite electrode yaseShayina izoqashelwa futhi ithembeke ngamakhasimende aphesheya. Umthamo wokuthumela ngaphandle we-graphite electrode kulindeleke ukuthi ukhuphuke kakhulu, okuzoba yisici esiyinhloko sokukhuthaza ukugaywa kokukhiqizwa kwe-graphite electrode eShayina.
3.2. umthelela wenqubomgomo yokuvikela imvelo esimweni sobhubhane ubangela ukuthi ukuhlinzekwa kwe-graphite electrode kube kuncane
Ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni kwenqubo ende yokwenza insimbi yenqubo emfushane esithandweni sikagesi kuncishisiwe. Ngokusho kohlelo lweminyaka emihlanu lwe-13 lwemboni yensimbi engcolile, uma kuqhathaniswa nokwenza insimbi yensimbi, ukukhishwa kwamathani ayi-1.6 e-carbon dioxide namathani ama-3 emfucuza eqinile kungancishiswa ngokusebenzisa ithani eli-1 lokwenza insimbi yensimbi engcolile. Uchungechunge lwezinqubo luhilelekile embonini yensimbi nensimbi. Inqubo ngayinye izodlula ochungechungeni lwezinguquko zamakhemikhali nezomzimba. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, izinhlobo ezahlukene zezinsalela kanye nemfucuza zizokhishwa ngenkathi kukhiqizwa imikhiqizo edingekayo. Ngokubala, singathola ukuthi lapho kukhiqizwa okufanayo kwe-slab/billet yethani eli-1, inqubo ende equkethe inqubo yokusinta izokhipha ukungcola okwengeziwe, okungokwesibili enqubweni ende yenqubo ye-pellet, kuyilapho ukungcola okukhishwe ngokwenza insimbi yesikhathi esifushane kuphansi kakhulu kunaleyo yenqubo ende enenqubo yokusinta kanye nenqubo ende equkethe i-pellet, okubonisa ukuthi ukwenza insimbi yenqubo yesikhathi esifushane kunobungane kakhulu nemvelo. Ukuze kunqotshwe impi yokuvikela isibhakabhaka esiluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka, izifundazwe eziningi eShayina zikhiphe isaziso sokukhiqiza okuphezulu kakhulu ebusika nasentwasahlobo, futhi zenze amalungiselelo okukhiqiza ahlukene ezinkampanini ezibalulekile ezihlobene negesi njengensimbi, i-nonferrous, i-coking, imboni yamakhemikhali, izinto zokwakha kanye ne-casting. Phakathi kwazo, uma ukusetshenziswa kwamandla, ukuvikelwa kwemvelo kanye nokuphepha kwamabhizinisi e-carbon kanye ne-ferroalloy lapho i-graphite electrode ingaphansi kwawo kwehluleka ukuhlangabezana nezidingo ezifanele, ezinye izifundazwe ziphakamise ngokusobala ukuthi ukuvinjelwa kokukhiqiza noma ukumiswa kokukhiqiza kuzosetshenziswa ngokwesimo sangempela.
3.3. iphethini yokuhlinzekwa kanye nesidingo se-graphite electrode iyashintsha kancane kancane
I-pneumonia entsha ye-coronavirus ebangelwe ukwehla komnotho womhlaba kanye nethonya elithile lokuvikela engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2020, yenze i-electrode ye-graphite kokubili ekudingweni kwemakethe yasekhaya nakwamanye amazwe kanye nentengo yokuthengisa yehla, kanti amabhizinisi e-electrode ye-graphite embonini anciphisa ukukhiqizwa, amisa ukukhiqizwa futhi enza ukulahlekelwa. Esikhathini esifushane nesiphakathi, ngaphezu kokulindela kweShayina ukuthuthukisa ukufunwa kwe-electrode ye-graphite, amandla e-electrode ye-graphite yaphesheya angase ancishiswe ngaphansi kwethonya lobhubhane, okuzokwenza isimo sibe sibi kakhulu sephethini yokuphakelwa okuqinile kwe-electrode ye-graphite.
Kusukela kwikota yesine ka-2020, isitokwe se-graphite electrode besilokhu sincipha njalo, futhi izinga lokuqala kwebhizinisi liye landa. Kusukela ngo-2019, ukunikezwa kwe-graphite electrode iyonke eShayina kube kukhulu kakhulu, futhi amabhizinisi e-graphite electrode nawo alawula ngempumelelo ukuqala. Nakuba ukwehla komnotho womhlaba wonke ngo-2020, umthelela wemishini yensimbi yangaphandle ethintekile yi-COVID-19 ngokuvamile uyaqhubeka, kodwa umkhiqizo wensimbi engahluziwe waseShayina uhlala ukhula ngokuqinile. Kodwa-ke, intengo yemakethe ye-graphite electrode ithintwa kakhulu ukunikezwa kwemakethe, futhi intengo iyaqhubeka nokwehla, futhi amabhizinisi e-graphite electrode alahlekelwe kakhulu. Amanye amabhizinisi amakhulu e-graphite electrode eShayina asebenzise kakhulu isitokwe ngo-Ephreli nangoMeyi 2020. Njengamanje, ukunikezwa kanye nesidingo semakethe ephezulu kakhulu nenkulu kuseduze nephuzu lokulinganisela ukunikezwa kanye nesidingo. Ngisho noma isidingo singashintshi, usuku lokunikezwa kanye nesidingo esikhulu luzofika maduze.
Ukukhula okusheshayo kokusetshenziswa kwezinsimbi ezilahliwe kukhuthaza isidingo. Ukusetshenziswa kwensimbi elahliwe kukhuphuke kusuka kumathani ayizigidi ezingu-88.29 ngo-2014 kuya kumathani ayizigidi ezingu-18781 ngo-2018, kanti i-CAGR ifinyelele ku-20.8%. Ngokuvula kwenqubomgomo kazwelonke yokungenisa insimbi elahliwe kanye nokwanda kwesilinganiso sokuncibilikisa isithando sikagesi, kulindeleke ukuthi ukusetshenziswa kwensimbi elahliwe kuzoqhubeka kukhuphuka ngokushesha. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ngenxa yokuthi intengo yensimbi elahliwe ithintwa kakhulu yisidingo saphesheya kwezilwandle, intengo yezinsimbi ezilahliwe zaphesheya kwezilwandle ikhuphuke kakhulu engxenyeni yesibili ka-2020 ngenxa yomthelela wokuqala kweShayina ukungenisa izinsimbi ezilahliwe. Njengamanje, intengo yensimbi elahliwe isezingeni eliphezulu, futhi isiqalile ukubuya kusukela ngo-2021. Ukwehla kwesidingo okubangelwa umthelela wesimo sobhubhane kwamanye amazwe kulindeleke ukuthi kuqhubeke kuthinte ukwehla kwensimbi elahliwe. Kulindeleke ukuthi intengo yensimbi eqoshiwe izoqhubeka nokuthinteka engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2021. I-lattice izoshintshashintsha futhi yehle, okuphinde kube ngcono ekuthuthukisweni kwesilinganiso sokuqala kwesithando kanye nesidingo se-graphite electrode.
Isidingo esiphelele sensimbi yomlilo kagesi yomhlaba wonke kanye nensimbi engeyona yomlilo ngo-2019 nango-2020 singamathani ayi-1376800 kanye namathani ayizigidi eziyi-14723 ngokulandelana. Kubikezelwa ukuthi isidingo esiphelele somhlaba wonke sizokhula eminyakeni emihlanu ezayo, futhi sifinyelele amathani ayizigidi eziyi-2.1444 ngo-2025. Isidingo sensimbi yomlilo kagesi sibangela iningi lazo zonke. Kulinganiselwa ukuthi isidingo sizofinyelela amathani ayizigidi eziyi-1.8995 ngo-2025.
Isidingo somhlaba wonke sama-electrode e-graphite ngo-2019 nango-2020 singamathani ayi-1376800 kanye namathani ayizigidi eziyi-14723 ngokulandelana. Kubikezelwa ukuthi isidingo somhlaba wonke sizokhula kakhulu eminyakeni emihlanu ezayo, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi sifinyelele amathani ayizigidi eziyi-2.1444 ngo-2025. Okwamanje, ngo-2021 nango-2022, ukunikezwa kwama-electrode e-graphite emhlabeni wonke kwakungaphezu kwamathani ayi-267 kanye nayi-16000 ngokulandelana. Ngemuva kuka-2023, kuzoba nokuntuleka kokunikezwa, kanye negebe lamathani ayi--17900, amathani ayi-39000 kanye namathani ayi--24000.
Ngo-2019 nango-2020, isidingo somhlaba wonke sama-electrode e-graphite e-UHP singamathani angu-9087000 kanye namathani angu-986400 ngokulandelana. Kubikezelwa ukuthi isidingo somhlaba wonke sizokhula eminyakeni emihlanu ezayo, futhi sifinyelele cishe amathani ayizigidi ezingu-1.608 ngo-2025. Phakathi naleso sikhathi, ngo-2021 nango-2022, ukunikezwa kwama-electrode e-graphite emhlabeni wonke kwakungaphezu kwamathani angu-775 kanye no-61500 ngokulandelana. Ngemva kuka-2023, kuzoba nokuntuleka kokunikezwa, kanye negebe lamathani angu--08000, amathani angu-26300 kanye namathani angu--67300.
Kusukela engxenyeni yesibili ka-2020 kuya kuJanuwari 2021, intengo yomhlaba wonke ye-electrode ye-graphite enamandla kakhulu yehle kusuka ku-27000/t kuya ku-24000/T. Kulinganiselwa ukuthi ibhizinisi eliyinhloko lingenza inzuzo ye-yuan / ton ka-1922-2067 ngentengo yamanje. Ngo-2021, isidingo somhlaba wonke sama-electrode e-graphite anamandla kakhulu sizokhula kakhulu, ikakhulukazi ukushisa okuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kulindeleke ukuthi kuqhubeke nokudonsa isidingo se-graphite yamandla aphezulu kakhulu, futhi izinga lokuqala kwe-graphite electrode lizoqhubeka likhuphuke. Kulindeleke ukuthi intengo ye-UHP graphite electrode ngo-2021 izokwenyuswa ibe yi-26000/t engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka, futhi inzuzo izokwenyuswa ibe yi-3922-4067 yuan / ton. Ngokukhula okuqhubekayo kwesidingo esiphelele sama-electrode e-graphite anamandla aphezulu kakhulu esikhathini esizayo, isikhala senzuzo sizokwenyuswa kakhulu.
Kusukela ngoJanuwari 2021, intengo yomhlaba wonke ye-common power graphite electrode ingu-11500-12500 yuan / ton. Ngokwezindleko zamanje kanye nentengo yemakethe, inzuzo ye-common graphite electrode ilinganiselwa ukuthi ingu-264-1404 yuan / ton, okusesesimeni sokulahlekelwa. Intengo yamanje ye-graphite electrode enamandla ajwayelekile ikhuphuke isuka ku-10000 yuan / ton kwikota yesithathu ka-2020 yaya ku-12500 yuan / T. ngokululama kancane kancane komnotho womhlaba, ikakhulukazi ngaphansi kwenqubomgomo yokungasebenzisi ikhabhoni, isidingo sensimbi yesithando sikhuphuka ngokushesha, futhi ukusetshenziswa kwensimbi eqoshiwe kuyaqhubeka nokukhula, futhi isidingo se-common graphite electrode sizokhuphuka kakhulu. Kulindeleke ukuthi intengo ye-graphite electrode enamandla ajwayelekile izokhushulwa ibe ngaphezu kwezindleko kwikota yesithathu ka-2021, futhi inzuzo izotholakala. Njengoba isidingo somhlaba wonke sama-graphite electrode amandla ajwayelekile siqhubeka sikhuphuka esikhathini esizayo, isikhala senzuzo sizokhula kancane kancane.
4. iphethini yokuncintisana yomkhakha we-graphite electrode eShayina
Izindawo eziphakathi nendawo embonini ye-graphite electrode ngabakhiqizi be-graphite electrode, kanye namabhizinisi azimele njengabahlanganyeli. Ukukhiqizwa kwe-graphite electrode yaseShayina kubala cishe u-50% womkhiqizo womhlaba wonke wama-graphite electrode. Njengebhizinisi elihamba phambili embonini ye-graphite electrode yaseShayina, isabelo semakethe se-square carbon graphite electrode eShayina singaphezu kuka-20%, futhi amandla e-graphite electrode angowesithathu emhlabeni. Ngokuphathelene nekhwalithi yomkhiqizo, amabhizinisi amakhulu embonini ye-graphite electrode eShayina anokuncintisana okuqinile kwamazwe ngamazwe, futhi imininingwane yobuchwepheshe yemikhiqizo ngokuyisisekelo ifinyelela ezingeni lemikhiqizo efanayo yabancintisani bangaphandle. Kukhona ukuhlukaniswa emakethe ye-graphite electrode. Imakethe ye-graphite electrode enamandla kakhulu ihlalwa kakhulu amabhizinisi aphezulu embonini, kanti amabhizinisi amane aphezulu abala ngaphezu kuka-80% wesabelo semakethe se-UHP graphite electrode, futhi ukuhlushwa kwemboni kusobala.
Emakethe ye-electrode ye-graphite enamandla aphezulu kakhulu, amabhizinisi amakhulu e-electrode ye-graphite asezingeni eliphakathi nendawo anamandla amakhulu okuxoxisana embonini yokwenza insimbi engezansi, futhi adinga amakhasimende angezansi ukuthi akhokhe ukuze alethe izimpahla ngaphandle kokunikeza isikhathi se-akhawunti. Ama-electrode e-graphite anamandla aphezulu navamile anomkhawulo wobuchwepheshe ophansi, umncintiswano wemakethe oqinile kanye nomncintiswano wamanani ovelele. Emakethe ye-electrode ye-graphite yamandla aphezulu navamile, ebhekene nemboni yokwenza insimbi enokugxila okuphezulu phansi, amabhizinisi amancane naphakathi nendawo e-graphite electrode anamandla amancane okuxoxisana angaphansi komhlaba, ukuze anikeze amakhasimende isikhathi se-akhawunti noma anciphise amanani ukuze ancintisane nemakethe. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ngenxa yezici zokuqinisa ukuvikelwa kwemvelo, amandla amabhizinisi aphakathi nendawo anqunyelwe kakhulu, futhi izinga lokusetshenziswa kwamandla eliphelele lemboni lingaphansi kuka-70%. Amanye amabhizinisi aze abonakale sengathi ayalwa ukuba ayeke ukukhiqiza unomphela. Uma ukuchuma kwemboni yokuncibilikisa insimbi, i-phosphorus ephuzi kanye nezinye izinto zokusetshenziswa zezimboni ezansi kwe-graphite electrode kuncipha, isidingo semakethe ye-graphite electrode sinqunyelwe, futhi intengo ye-graphite electrode ingakhuphuki kakhulu, ukwenyuka kwezindleko zokusebenza kuzoholela ekusindeni kwamabhizinisi amancane naphakathi ngaphandle kokuncintisana okuyinhloko, futhi kancane kancane aphume emakethe noma atholwe yi-graphite electrode enkulu noma amabhizinisi ensimbi.
Ngemuva kuka-2017, ngokwanda okusheshayo kwenzuzo ekwenzeni insimbi yesithando sikagesi, isidingo kanye nentengo ye-graphite electrode yezinto ezisetshenziswayo zokwenza insimbi yesithando sikagesi nayo yanda ngokushesha. Inzuzo enkulu yemboni ye-graphite electrode ikhuphuke kakhulu. Amabhizinisi embonini andise isikali sawo sokukhiqiza. Amanye amabhizinisi ayeke imakethe aqale ukusebenza kancane kancane. Kusukela ekukhiqizweni okuphelele kwe-graphite electrode, ukuhlushwa kwemboni kuye kwehla. Uma sithatha ikhabhoni yesikwele ehamba phambili ye-graphite electrode njengesibonelo, isabelo sayo semakethe sehle sisuka cishe ku-30% ngo-2016 saya cishe ku-25% ngo-2018. Kodwa-ke, ngokuphathelene nokuhlukaniswa okuthile kwemikhiqizo ye-graphite electrode, ukuncintisana emakethe yemboni kuye kwahlukaniswa. Ngenxa yezidingo zobuchwepheshe eziphezulu ze-graphite electrode enamandla aphezulu, isabelo semakethe semikhiqizo yamandla aphezulu sithuthukiswa kakhulu ngokukhulula amandla okukhiqiza amabhizinisi amakhulu embonini ngamandla obuchwepheshe ahambisanayo, kanti amabhizinisi amakhulu amane aphezulu athatha ngaphezu kuka-80% wesabelo semakethe semikhiqizo yamandla aphezulu. Ngokuphathelene namandla avamile kanye ne-electrode ye-graphite enamandla aphezulu enezidingo zobuchwepheshe eziphansi, ukuncintisana emakethe kuyaqina kancane kancane ngenxa yokuhlanganiswa kabusha kwamabhizinisi amancane naphakathi anamandla obuchwepheshe abuthakathaka kanye nokwanda komkhiqizo.
Ngemva kwamashumi eminyaka yentuthuko, ngokwethulwa kobuchwepheshe bokukhiqizwa kwe-graphite electrode, amabhizinisi amakhulu e-graphite electrode eShayina asebenolwazi lobuchwepheshe obuyinhloko bokukhiqizwa kwe-graphite electrode. Ubuchwepheshe bokukhiqiza kanye nezinga lobuchwepheshe be-graphite electrode lifana nelabancintisana baphesheya kwezilwandle, futhi ngezinzuzo zokusebenza okubiza kakhulu, amabhizinisi e-graphite electrode aseShayina adlala indima ebalulekile emncintiswaneni wemakethe yomhlaba wonke.
5. iziphakamiso zokutshalwa kwezimali
Ekupheleni kokuhlinzekwa, ukugcwala kwemboni ye-graphite electrode kusenendawo yokuthuthukiswa, ukuvikelwa kwemvelo kanye nomkhawulo wokukhiqiza kwandisa isilinganiso sokwenza insimbi yesithando sikagesi, futhi ukuthuthukiswa okuphelele kwemboni ye-graphite electrode kuhle. Ngasohlangothini lwesidingo, ngenxa yokuthuthukisa umkhiqizo nokunciphisa ukusetshenziswa kwamandla, i-UHP EAF yamathani ayi-100-150 yesikhathi esizayo iyisiqondiso sentuthuko esijwayelekile, kanti ukuthuthukiswa kwe-UHP EAF kuwumkhuba ojwayelekile. Njengenye yezinto eziyinhloko ze-UHP EAF, isidingo se-graphite electrode enkulu enamandla aphezulu kulindeleke ukuthi sikhule kakhulu.
Ukuchuma kwemboni ye-graphite electrode kwehle eminyakeni emibili edlule. Ukusebenza kwezinkampani ze-graphite electrode ezihamba phambili zasekhaya kwehle kakhulu ngo-2020. Imboni iyonke isesigabeni sokulindela okuphansi kanye nokungabi nanani elifanele. Kodwa-ke, sikholelwa ukuthi ngokuthuthukiswa kwezici eziyisisekelo zemboni kanye nokubuyela kancane kancane kwentengo ye-graphite electrode ezingeni elifanele, ukusebenza kwamabhizinisi ahamba phambili embonini kuzozuza ngokugcwele ekubuyeni kwemakethe ye-graphite electrode. Esikhathini esizayo, iShayina inendawo enkulu yokuthuthukiswa kokwenziwa kwensimbi yenqubo emfushane, okuzozuzisa ukuthuthukiswa kwe-graphite electrode ye-EAF yenqubo emfushane. Kuphakanyiswa ukuthi amabhizinisi ahamba phambili emkhakheni we-graphite electrode kufanele agxile.
6. amathiphu obungozi
Ingxenye yemboni yokwenza insimbi yesithando sikagesi eShayina ayilindelekile, futhi intengo yezinto zokusetshenziswa ze-graphite electrode iyashintshashintsha kakhulu.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Ephreli-13-2021