Malinga ndi lipoti lomwe linatulutsidwa ndi TrendForce Consulting, pamene Anson, Infineon ndi mapulojekiti ena ogwirizana ndi opanga magalimoto ndi mphamvu akumveka bwino, msika wonse wamagetsi a SiC udzakwezedwa kufika pa madola aku US 2.28 biliyoni mu 2023 (chidziwitso chakunyumba cha IT: pafupifupi 15.869 biliyoni yuan), kuwonjezeka ndi 41.4% pachaka.
Malinga ndi lipotilo, ma semiconductor a m'badwo wachitatu akuphatikizapo silicon carbide (SiC) ndi gallium nitride (GaN), ndipo SiC imayimira 80% ya phindu lonse lotulutsa. SiC ndi yoyenera kugwiritsa ntchito magetsi amphamvu komanso magetsi amphamvu, zomwe zingathandize kwambiri kuyendetsa bwino magalimoto amagetsi ndi zida zamagetsi zongowonjezwdwanso.
Malinga ndi TrendForce, ntchito ziwiri zazikulu zogwiritsira ntchito zida zamagetsi za SiC ndi magalimoto amagetsi ndi mphamvu zongowonjezwdwanso, zomwe zafika $1.09 biliyoni ndi $210 miliyoni motsatana mu 2022 (pakadali pano pafupifupi RMB7.586 biliyoni). Ili ndi 67.4% ndi 13.1% ya msika wonse wa zida zamagetsi za SiC.
Malinga ndi TrendForce Consulting, msika wamagetsi wa SiC ukuyembekezeka kufika $5.33 biliyoni pofika chaka cha 2026 (pakadali pano pafupifupi 37.097 biliyoni ya yuan). Ntchito zazikulu zimadalirabe magalimoto amagetsi ndi mphamvu zongowonjezwdwa, ndipo mtengo wa magalimoto amagetsi ufika $3.98 biliyoni (pakadali pano pafupifupi 27.701 biliyoni ya yuan), CAGR (chiwerengero cha kukula kwa pachaka) cha pafupifupi 38%; Mphamvu zongowonjezwdwa zafika madola 410 miliyoni aku US (pafupifupi 2.854 biliyoni ya yuan pakadali pano), CAGR ya pafupifupi 19%.
Tesla sinalepheretse ogwiritsa ntchito SiC
Kukula kwa msika wa silicon carbide (SiC) m'zaka zisanu zapitazi kwadalira kwambiri Tesla, kampani yoyamba kupanga zida zoyambira kugwiritsa ntchito zidazo m'magalimoto amagetsi, komanso yogula kwambiri masiku ano. Chifukwa chake posachedwa pomwe idalengeza kuti yapeza njira yochepetsera kuchuluka kwa SiC yomwe imagwiritsidwa ntchito m'magawo ake amagetsi amtsogolo ndi 75 peresenti, makampaniwa adachita mantha, ndipo zinthu zomwe osewera akuluakulu adagula zidawonongeka.
Kuchepetsa kwa 75 peresenti kukumveka koopsa, makamaka popanda nkhani zambiri, koma pali zochitika zingapo zomwe zingachitike kumbuyo kwa chilengezochi - palibe chomwe chikusonyeza kuchepa kwakukulu kwa kufunikira kwa zipangizo kapena msika wonse.
Chitsanzo 1: Zipangizo zochepa
Inverter ya ma chip 48 mu Tesla Model 3 imachokera ku ukadaulo watsopano kwambiri womwe ulipo panthawi yopangidwa (2017). Komabe, pamene chilengedwe cha SiC chikukhwima, pali mwayi wowonjezera magwiridwe antchito a ma substrates a SiC kudzera mu mapangidwe apamwamba kwambiri a makina okhala ndi kuphatikiza kwapamwamba. Ngakhale sizingatheke kuti ukadaulo umodzi ungachepetse SiC ndi 75%, kupita patsogolo kosiyanasiyana pakulongedza, kuziziritsa (monga, yokhala ndi mbali ziwiri komanso yoziziritsidwa ndi madzi), komanso kapangidwe ka zida zolumikizidwa kungayambitse zida zazing'ono komanso zogwira ntchito bwino. Mosakayikira Tesla idzafufuza mwayi woterewu, ndipo chiwerengero cha 75% mwina chikutanthauza kapangidwe ka inverter kophatikizidwa kwambiri komwe kamachepetsa chiwerengero cha ma dies omwe amagwiritsa ntchito kuchokera pa 48 mpaka 12. Komabe, ngati zili choncho, sizili zofanana ndi kuchepetsa kwabwino kwa zinthu za SiC monga momwe zanenedwera.
Pakadali pano, ma Oem ena omwe ayambitsa magalimoto a 800V mu 2023-24 adzadalirabe SiC, yomwe ndi yoyenera kwambiri pazida zamagetsi amphamvu kwambiri komanso zamagetsi amphamvu kwambiri m'gawoli. Chifukwa chake, ma Oem sangawone zotsatira zazifupi pa kulowa kwa SiC.
Izi zikuwonetsa kusintha kwa msika wamagalimoto a SiC kuchoka pa zinthu zopangira kupita ku kuphatikiza zida ndi machitidwe. Ma module amphamvu tsopano amasewera gawo lofunikira pakukweza mtengo ndi magwiridwe antchito onse, ndipo osewera onse akuluakulu mu SiC ali ndi mabizinesi a ma module amphamvu omwe ali ndi luso lawo loyika mkati - kuphatikiza onsemi, STMicroelectronics ndi Infineon. Wolfspeed tsopano ikukulirakulira kupitirira zinthu zopangira mpaka zida.
Chitsanzo chachiwiri: Magalimoto ang'onoang'ono omwe ali ndi mphamvu zochepa
Tesla yakhala ikugwira ntchito pa galimoto yatsopano yoyambira kuti magalimoto ake azitha kugwiritsidwa ntchito mosavuta. Mtundu 2 kapena Mtundu Q udzakhala wotsika mtengo komanso wocheperako kuposa magalimoto awo apano, ndipo magalimoto ang'onoang'ono okhala ndi zinthu zochepa sadzafunika zinthu zambiri za SiC kuti azigwiritse ntchito. Komabe, mitundu yake yomwe ilipo mwina idzakhalabe ndi kapangidwe komweko ndipo imafunabe SiC yambiri.
Ngakhale zili ndi ubwino wake wonse, SiC ndi chinthu chodula, ndipo makampani ambiri a Oem asonyeza chikhumbo chochepetsa ndalama. Tsopano popeza Tesla, kampani yayikulu kwambiri ya OEM m'derali, yapereka ndemanga pamitengo, izi zitha kukakamiza ma IDM kuti achepetse ndalama. Kodi kulengeza kwa Tesla kungakhale njira yoyendetsera njira zopikisana kwambiri pamitengo? Zidzakhala zosangalatsa kuwona momwe makampaniwa adzachitire m'masabata/miyezi ikubwerayi…
Ma Idms akugwiritsa ntchito njira zosiyanasiyana kuti achepetse ndalama, monga kupeza zinthu kuchokera kwa ogulitsa osiyanasiyana, kukulitsa kupanga mwa kuwonjezera mphamvu ndikusintha kukhala ma wafer akuluakulu (6 “ndi 8”). Kupanikizika kowonjezereka kungafulumizitse kuphunzira kwa osewera m'derali. Kuphatikiza apo, kukwera kwa mitengo kungapangitse SiC kukhala yotsika mtengo osati kwa opanga magalimoto ena okha komanso kwa mapulogalamu ena, zomwe zingapangitse kuti igwiritsidwe ntchito kwambiri.
Chitsanzo 3: Sinthani SIC ndi zinthu zina
Akatswiri a ku Yole Intelligence akuyang'anitsitsa ukadaulo wina womwe ungapikisane ndi SiC m'magalimoto amagetsi. Mwachitsanzo, SiC yolumikizidwa imapereka mphamvu zambiri - kodi tidzaiwona ikusintha SiC yosalala mtsogolomu?
Pofika chaka cha 2023, ma IGBT a Si adzagwiritsidwa ntchito mu ma EV inverters ndipo ali pamalo abwino mkati mwa makampani pankhani ya mphamvu ndi mtengo. Opanga akupititsa patsogolo magwiridwe antchito, ndipo gawo ili likhoza kuwonetsa kuthekera kwa mtundu wamagetsi otsika womwe watchulidwa mu gawo lachiwiri, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti zikhale zosavuta kukulitsa kwambiri. Mwina SiC idzasungidwa magalimoto apamwamba komanso amphamvu kwambiri a Tesla.
GaN-on-Si ikuwonetsa kuthekera kwakukulu pamsika wamagalimoto, koma akatswiri akuwona izi ngati lingaliro la nthawi yayitali (zaka zoposa 5 mu ma inverters m'dziko lachikhalidwe). Ngakhale kuti pakhala kukambirana kwina m'makampani okhudza GaN, kufunikira kwa Tesla kuchepetsa ndalama ndi kukulitsa kuchuluka kwa magalimoto kumapangitsa kuti zikhale zosatheka kuti ipite kuzinthu zatsopano komanso zosakhwima kwambiri kuposa SiC mtsogolo. Koma kodi Tesla ingatenge sitepe yolimba mtima yogwiritsa ntchito zinthu zatsopanozi kaye? Nthawi yokha ndiyo idzatiuza.
Kutumiza ma wafer kwakhudzidwa pang'ono, koma pakhoza kukhala misika yatsopano
Ngakhale kuti kukakamiza kuphatikiza kwakukulu sikudzakhudza kwambiri msika wa zida, kungakhale ndi zotsatirapo pa kutumiza kwa ma wafer. Ngakhale kuti sikodabwitsa monga momwe ambiri ankaganizira poyamba, zochitika zonse zikuwonetsa kuchepa kwa kufunikira kwa SiC, komwe kungakhudze makampani opanga ma semiconductor.
Komabe, izi zitha kuwonjezera kupezeka kwa zipangizo kumisika ina yomwe yakula limodzi ndi msika wamagalimoto m'zaka zisanu zapitazi. Auto ikuyembekeza kuti mafakitale onse akula kwambiri m'zaka zikubwerazi - makamaka chifukwa cha kutsika kwa ndalama komanso kuwonjezeka kwa mwayi wopeza zipangizo.
Kulengeza kwa Tesla kunadabwitsa makampani onse, koma poganizira bwino, chiyembekezo cha SiC chikadali chabwino kwambiri. Kodi Tesla ipita kuti kenako - ndipo kodi makampaniwa adzachitapo kanthu bwanji ndikusintha? Ndikoyenera kusamala.
Nthawi yotumizira: Mar-27-2023