Ngokusho kombiko okhishwe yiTrendForce Consulting, njengoba i-Anson, i-Infineon kanye neminye imisebenzi yokubambisana nabakhiqizi bezimoto namandla icacile, imakethe yezingxenye zamandla ze-SiC iyonke izokhushulelwa kumadola aseMelika ayizigidigidi ezingu-2.28 ngo-2023 (inothi lasekhaya le-IT: cishe ama-yuan ayizigidigidi ezingu-15.869), okukhuphuke ngo-41.4% unyaka nonyaka.
Ngokusho kombiko, ama-semiconductor esizukulwane sesithathu afaka i-silicon carbide (SiC) kanye ne-gallium nitride (GaN), kanti i-SiC ikhiqiza u-80% wenani eliphelele lokukhipha. I-SiC ifanelekela izimo zokusetshenziswa kwamandla aphezulu kanye nogesi ophezulu, okungathuthukisa kakhulu ukusebenza kahle kwezimoto zikagesi kanye nohlelo lwemishini yamandla avuselelekayo.
Ngokusho kwe-TrendForce, izinhlelo ezimbili eziphezulu zezingxenye zamandla ze-SiC yizimoto zikagesi kanye namandla avuselelekayo, afinyelele ku-$1.09 billion kanye no-$210 million ngokulandelana ngo-2022 (okwamanje cishe ama-RMB7.586 billion). Ihlanganisa u-67.4% kanye no-13.1% wemakethe iyonke yezingxenye zamandla ze-SiC.
Ngokusho kwe-TrendForce Consulting, imakethe yezingxenye zamandla ze-SiC kulindeleke ukuthi ifinyelele ku-$5.33 billion ngo-2026 (okwamanje cishe yi-yuan eyizigidigidi ezingama-37.097). Izinhlelo zokusebenza ezijwayelekile zisathembele ezimotweni zikagesi kanye namandla avuselelekayo, kanti inani lomkhiqizo wezimoto zikagesi lifinyelela ku-$3.98 billion (okwamanje cishe yi-yuan eyizigidigidi ezingama-27.701), i-CAGR (isilinganiso sokukhula sonyaka esihlanganisiwe) cishe singama-38%; Amandla avuselelekayo afinyelele ku-$410 million wase-US (cishe yi-yuan eyizigidigidi ezingama-2.854 okwamanje), i-CAGR ecishe ibe yi-19%.
I-Tesla ayizange ivimbele abaqhubi be-SiC
Ukukhula kwemakethe ye-silicon carbide (SiC) eminyakeni emihlanu edlule kuye kwancika kakhulu ku-Tesla, umenzi wemishini wokuqala wokuqala ukusebenzisa le nto ezimotweni zikagesi, kanye nomthengi omkhulu kunabo bonke namuhla. Ngakho-ke lapho isanda kumemezela ukuthi isithole indlela yokunciphisa inani le-SiC elisetshenziswa kumamojula ayo kagesi esikhathi esizayo ngamaphesenti angama-75, imboni yaphazamiseka, futhi izinto ezisetshenziswa abadlali abakhulu zahlupheka.
Ukunciphisa ngamaphesenti angama-75 kuzwakala kuyesabisa, ikakhulukazi ngaphandle komongo omkhulu, kodwa kunezimo eziningana ezingaba khona ngemuva kwalesi simemezelo - okungekho noyedwa kuzo osikisela ukwehla okukhulu kwesidingo sezinto zokwakha noma imakethe iyonke.
Isimo 1: Amadivayisi ambalwa
I-inverter enama-chip angu-48 ku-Tesla Model 3 isekelwe kubuchwepheshe obusha kakhulu obutholakala ngesikhathi sokuthuthukiswa (2017). Kodwa-ke, njengoba i-ecosystem ye-SiC ikhula, kunethuba lokwandisa ukusebenza kwe-substrates ze-SiC ngokusebenzisa imiklamo yesistimu ethuthukisiwe kakhulu ngokuhlanganiswa okuphezulu. Nakuba kungenakwenzeka ukuthi ubuchwepheshe obubodwa buzonciphisa i-SiC ngo-75%, intuthuko ehlukahlukene ekupakisheni, ekupholiseni (okungukuthi, ezinhlangothini ezimbili kanye nepholile ngoketshezi), kanye nokwakhiwa kwedivayisi eneziteshi kungaholela kumadivayisi amancane kakhulu, asebenza kangcono. Akungabazeki ukuthi i-Tesla izohlola ithuba elinjalo, futhi isibalo esingu-75% cishe sibhekisela kumklamo we-inverter ohlanganiswe kakhulu onciphisa inani lama-dies eliwasebenzisayo kusuka ku-48 kuya ku-12. Kodwa-ke, uma kunjalo, akufani nokunciphisa okuhle kwezinto ze-SiC njengoba kuye kwaphakanyiswa.
Okwamanje, amanye ama-Oem azokwethula izimoto ezingama-800V ngo-2023-24 azoqhubeka nokuthembela ku-SiC, okuyiyona engcono kakhulu yamadivayisi anamandla aphezulu kanye ne-voltage ephezulu kulesi sigaba. Ngenxa yalokho, ama-Oem angase angaboni umthelela wesikhashana ekungeneni kwe-SiC.
Lesi simo siqokomisa ushintsho emakethe yezimoto ze-SiC kusukela ekugxilweni kwezinto zokusetshenziswa kuya ekuhlanganisweni kwemishini nezinhlelo. Amamojula kagesi manje adlala indima ebalulekile ekuthuthukiseni izindleko kanye nokusebenza okuphelele, futhi bonke abadlali abakhulu esikhaleni se-SiC banamabhizinisi amamojula kagesi anamakhono abo okupakisha angaphakathi - kufaka phakathi i-onsemi, i-STMicroelectronics kanye ne-Infineon. I-Wolfspeed manje isanda ngale kwezinto zokusetshenziswa kuya kumadivayisi.
Isimo 2: Izimoto ezincane ezinezidingo eziphansi zamandla
I-Tesla ibilokhu isebenza emotweni entsha esezingeni lokuqala ukuze kube lula ukuyisebenzisa izimoto zayo. I-Model 2 noma i-Model Q izoba eshibhile futhi ibe ncane kunezimoto zayo zamanje, futhi izimoto ezincane ezinezici ezimbalwa ngeke zidinge okuqukethwe kwe-SiC okuningi ukuze zisebenze. Kodwa-ke, amamodeli ayo akhona cishe azogcina umklamo ofanayo futhi asadinga inani elikhulu le-SiC iyonke.
Naphezu kwazo zonke izinzuzo zayo, i-SiC iyinto ebiza kakhulu, futhi ama-Oem amaningi aveze isifiso sokunciphisa izindleko. Manje njengoba i-Tesla, i-OEM enkulu kunazo zonke kule ndawo, isiphawulile ngamanani, lokhu kungafaka ingcindezi kuma-IDM ukuze anciphise izindleko. Ingabe isimemezelo se-Tesla singaba isu lokuqhuba izixazululo ezincintisanayo ngezindleko? Kuzoba mnandi ukubona ukuthi imboni izosabela kanjani emasontweni/ezinyangeni ezizayo…
Ama-Idms asebenzisa amasu ahlukene ukunciphisa izindleko, njengokuthola i-substrate kubahlinzeki abahlukene, ukwandisa umkhiqizo ngokwandisa umthamo nokushintshela kuma-wafers amakhulu (6 “no-8″). Ukucindezela okwandisiwe kungenzeka kusheshise ijika lokufunda labadlali kulo lonke uchungechunge lokuhlinzeka kule ndawo. Ngaphezu kwalokho, izindleko ezikhulayo zingenza i-SiC ibe yithengeka kakhulu hhayi nje kwabanye abakhiqizi bezimoto kodwa nakwezinye izinhlelo zokusebenza, okungaqhubekisela phambili ukwamukelwa kwayo.
Isimo 3: Shintsha i-SIC ngezinye izinto
Abahlaziyi be-Yole Intelligence baqapha ngokucophelela ezinye izindlela zobuchwepheshe ezingancintisana ne-SiC ezimotweni zikagesi. Isibonelo, i-SiC egobile inikeza amandla amaningi – sizoyibona ithatha indawo ye-SiC eyisicaba esikhathini esizayo?
Ngo-2023, ama-Si IGBT azosetshenziswa kuma-inverter e-EV futhi abekwe kahle embonini ngokwezinga lomthamo kanye nezindleko. Abakhiqizi basathuthukisa ukusebenza, futhi lesi sisekelo singase sibonise amandla emodeli enamandla aphansi okukhulunywe ngayo esimeni sesibili, okwenza kube lula ukwandisa ngobuningi. Mhlawumbe i-SiC izogcinelwa izimoto ze-Tesla ezithuthuke kakhulu nezinamandla kakhulu.
I-GaN-on-Si ikhombisa amandla amakhulu emakethe yezimoto, kodwa abahlaziyi babona lokhu njengento okufanele icatshangelwe isikhathi eside (iminyaka engaphezu kwemi-5 kuma-inverters ezweni lendabuko). Nakuba kube nengxoxo embonini ezungeze i-GaN, isidingo se-Tesla sokunciphisa izindleko kanye nokwandisa ubuningi kwenza kube nzima ukuthi ishintshele ezintweni ezintsha kakhulu nezingavuthiwe njenge-SiC esikhathini esizayo. Kodwa ingabe i-Tesla ingathatha isinyathelo esinesibindi sokwamukela lezi zinto ezintsha kuqala? Isikhathi kuphela esizosho.
Ukuthunyelwa kwama-wafer kuthinteke kancane, kodwa kungase kube nezimakethe ezintsha
Nakuba ukusunduza kokuhlanganiswa okukhulu kungeke kube nomthelela omkhulu emakethe yamadivayisi, kungaba nomthelela ekuthunyelweni kwe-wafer. Nakuba kungekona okuphawulekayo njengoba abaningi babecabanga ekuqaleni, isimo ngasinye sibikezela ukwehla kwesidingo se-SiC, okungathinta izinkampani ze-semiconductor.
Kodwa-ke, kungandisa ukunikezwa kwezinto zokwakha kwezinye izimakethe ezikhule kanye nemakethe yezimoto eminyakeni emihlanu edlule. I-Auto ilindele ukuthi zonke izimboni zikhule kakhulu eminyakeni ezayo — cishe ngenxa yezindleko eziphansi kanye nokwanda kokufinyelela ezintweni zokwakha.
Isimemezelo sikaTesla sithumele amagagasi okushaqisayo embonini, kodwa uma sicabanga kabanzi, umbono we-SiC usalokhu umuhle kakhulu. I-Tesla izoya kuphi ngokulandelayo - futhi imboni izosabela kanjani futhi izivumelanise nezimo? Kufanele sikunake.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Mashi-27-2023