Ngokwengxelo ekhutshwe yiTrendForce Consulting, njengoko i-Anson, i-Infineon kunye nezinye iiprojekthi zentsebenziswano nabavelisi beemoto kunye namandla zicacile, imakethi iyonke yecandelo lamandla eSiC iya kunyuswa iye kwi-2.28 yeebhiliyoni zeedola zaseMelika ngo-2023 (inqaku lasekhaya le-IT: malunga ne-15.869 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan), inyuke nge-41.4% unyaka nonyaka.
Ngokwengxelo, ii-semiconductors zesizukulwana sesithathu ziquka i-silicon carbide (SiC) kunye ne-gallium nitride (GaN), kwaye i-SiC ithatha i-80% yexabiso lilonke lemveliso. I-SiC ifanelekile kwiimeko zokusetyenziswa kombane ophezulu kunye nombane ophezulu, nto leyo enokuphucula ngakumbi ukusebenza kakuhle kwezithuthi zombane kunye nenkqubo yezixhobo zamandla avuselelekayo.
Ngokutsho kweTrendForce, izicelo ezimbini eziphambili zezixhobo zamandla zeSiC zizithuthi zombane kunye namandla avuselelekayo, afikelele kwi-$1.09 yeebhiliyoni kunye ne-$210 yezigidi ngokulandelelana ngo-2022 (okwangoku malunga ne-RMB7.586 yeebhiliyoni). Ibandakanya i-67.4% kunye ne-13.1% yemarike iyonke yezixhobo zamandla zeSiC.
Ngokutsho kweTrendForce Consulting, imakethi yamandla eSiC kulindeleke ukuba ifikelele kwi-$5.33 yeebhiliyoni ngo-2026 (okwangoku malunga ne-37.097 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi). Izicelo eziphambili zisaxhomekeke kwizithuthi zombane kunye namandla avuselelekayo, ixabiso lemveliso yezithuthi zombane lifikelela kwi-$3.98 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi (okwangoku malunga ne-27.701 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi), i-CAGR (izinga lokukhula lonyaka elihlanganisiweyo) elimalunga ne-38%; Amandla avuselelekayo afikelele kwi-410 yezigidi zeerandi zaseMelika (malunga ne-2.854 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi okwangoku), i-CAGR emalunga ne-19%.
I-Tesla ayibathintelanga abaqhubi be-SiC
Ukukhula kwemarike ye-silicon carbide (SiC) kwiminyaka emihlanu edlulileyo kuxhomekeke kakhulu kwiTesla, umenzi wezixhobo zokuqala zokuqala ukusebenzisa ezi zinto kwizithuthi zombane, kunye nomthengi omkhulu namhlanje. Ngoko ke xa kutshanje ibhengeze ukuba ifumene indlela yokunciphisa isixa se-SiC esisetyenziswa kwiimodyuli zayo zamandla zexesha elizayo ngama-75 ekhulwini, eli shishini laphazamiseka, kwaye uluhlu lwezinto zabadlali abaphambili lwachaphazeleka.
Ukuncitshiswa ngama-75 ekhulwini kuvakala kuyoyikisa, ingakumbi ngaphandle kwemeko eninzi, kodwa kukho iimeko ezininzi ezinokubakho emva kwesi sibhengezo - akukho nanye kuzo ebonisa ukwehla okukhulu kwemfuno yezixhobo okanye imakethi iyonke.
Imeko 1: Izixhobo ezimbalwa
I-inverter ene-48-chip kwiTesla Model 3 isekelwe kwitekhnoloji entsha ekhoyo ngexesha lophuhliso (2017). Nangona kunjalo, njengoko i-ecosystem yeSiC ikhula, kukho ithuba lokwandisa ukusebenza kwe-SiC substrates ngokusebenzisa uyilo lwenkqubo oluphucukileyo olune-integration ephezulu. Nangona kungenakwenzeka ukuba itekhnoloji enye iya kunciphisa iSiC nge-75%, inkqubela phambili eyahlukeneyo ekupakisheni, ekupholiseni (oko kukuthi, emacala mabini kunye nepholileyo ngolwelo), kunye noyilo lwesixhobo esine-channeled kunokukhokelela kwizixhobo ezincinci nezisebenza ngcono. ITesla ngokungathandabuzekiyo iya kuhlola eli thuba, kwaye inani le-75% kusenokwenzeka libhekiselele kuyilo lwe-inverter oludibeneyo kakhulu olunciphisa inani lee-dies ezisebenzisayo ukusuka kwi-48 ukuya kwi-12. Nangona kunjalo, ukuba kunjalo, ayilingani nokunciphisa okuhle kwezinto zeSiC njengoko kucetyisiwe.
Okwangoku, ezinye ii-Oems eziza kuqalisa izithuthi ze-800V ngo-2023-24 ziya kuxhomekeka kwi-SiC, eyona ifanelekileyo kwizixhobo ezinamandla aphezulu kunye ne-voltage ephezulu kweli candelo. Ngenxa yoko, ii-Oems zisenokungaboni mpembelelo yexesha elifutshane ekungeneni kwe-SiC.
Le meko igxininisa utshintsho kwimarike yeemoto yeSiC ukusuka kwizinto eziluhlaza ukuya ekudityanisweni kwezixhobo neenkqubo. Iimodyuli zamandla ngoku zidlala indima ebalulekileyo ekuphuculeni iindleko kunye nokusebenza ngokubanzi, kwaye bonke abadlali abaphambili kwindawo yeSiC baneenkampani zeemodyuli zamandla ezinezakhono zabo zangaphakathi zokupakisha - kubandakanya i-onsemi, i-STMicroelectronics kunye ne-Infineon. I-Wolfspeed ngoku isanda ngaphaya kwezinto eziluhlaza ukuya kwizixhobo.
Imeko yesi-2: Izithuthi ezincinci ezineemfuno eziphantsi zamandla
I-Tesla ibisebenza kwimoto entsha ekumgangatho wokuqala ukuze kube lula ukuyisebenzisa izithuthi zayo. I-Model 2 okanye i-Model Q iya kuba nexabiso eliphantsi kwaye incinci kunezithuthi zabo zangoku, kwaye iimoto ezincinci ezineempawu ezimbalwa aziyi kufuna umxholo we-SiC ukuze zisebenze. Nangona kunjalo, iimodeli zayo ezikhoyo zisenokuthi zigcine uyilo olufanayo kwaye zisafuna inani elikhulu le-SiC iyonke.
Nangona intle, iSiC yinto ebiza kakhulu, kwaye uninzi lwee-Oems lubonakalise umnqweno wokunciphisa iindleko. Ngoku ekubeni iTesla, eyona OEM inkulu kweli candelo, iphawule ngamaxabiso, oku kungafaka uxinzelelo kwii-IDM ukuze kuncitshiswe iindleko. Ngaba isibhengezo sikaTesla singaba licebo lokuqhuba izisombululo ezikhuphisanayo ngeendleko? Kuya kuba nomdla ukubona indlela eli shishini eliza kusabela ngayo kwiiveki/kwiinyanga ezizayo…
Ii-Idms zisebenzisa amaqhinga ahlukeneyo ukunciphisa iindleko, njengokufumana i-substrate kubathengisi abahlukeneyo, ukwandisa imveliso ngokwandisa umthamo kunye nokutshintshela kwii-wafers ezinkulu ezinobubanzi (6 “kunye ne-8″). Uxinzelelo olunyukileyo lunokukhawulezisa indlela yokufunda yabadlali kulo lonke uthotho lokubonelela kule ndawo. Ukongeza, ukunyuka kweendleko kunokwenza i-SiC ifikeleleke ngakumbi kungekuphela nje kwabanye abenzi beemoto kodwa nakwezinye izicelo, ezinokubangela ukuba yamkelwe ngakumbi.
Imeko 3: Faka ezinye izinto endaweni ye-SIC
Abahlalutyi kwiYole Intelligence bajonga ngokusondeleyo ezinye iindlela zobuchwepheshe ezinokukhuphisana neSiC kwizithuthi zombane. Umzekelo, iSiC eneengcango inika amandla amaninzi – ngaba siza kuyibona ithatha indawo yeSiC ethe tyaba kwixesha elizayo?
Ngowama-2023, ii-Si IGBTs ziya kusetyenziswa kwii-EV inverters kwaye zibekwe kakuhle kushishino ngokwemiba yomthamo kunye neendleko. Abavelisi basaphucula ukusebenza, kwaye le substrate inokubonisa amandla emodeli yamandla aphantsi ekhankanyiweyo kwimeko yesibini, okwenza kube lula ukwandisa ngobuninzi. Mhlawumbi i-SiC iya kugcinelwa iimoto zeTesla eziphucukileyo nezinamandla ngakumbi.
I-GaN-on-Si ibonakalisa amandla amakhulu kwimarike yeemoto, kodwa abahlalutyi babona oku njengento eza kuqwalaselwa ixesha elide (ngaphezulu kweminyaka emi-5 kwii-inverters kwihlabathi lemveli). Nangona kubekho ingxoxo ethile kushishino olujikeleze i-GaN, imfuneko ye-Tesla yokunciphisa iindleko kunye nokwandiswa kobuninzi yenza kungabi lula ukuba itshintshele kwizixhobo ezintsha nezingavuthwanga kangako kune-SiC kwixesha elizayo. Kodwa ngaba i-Tesla ingathatha inyathelo elinesibindi lokwamkela ezi zixhobo zintsha kuqala? Ixesha kuphela eliza kuxela.
Ukuthunyelwa kweewafer kuchaphazeleke kancinci, kodwa kusenokuba kukho iimarike ezintsha
Nangona ukunyanzeliswa kokuhlanganiswa okukhulu kungayi kuba nefuthe elincinane kwimarike yezixhobo, kunokuba nefuthe ekuthunyelweni kwe-wafer. Nangona kungengomsebenzi omkhulu njengoko abaninzi babecinga ekuqaleni, imeko nganye ixela ukwehla kwemfuno ye-SiC, enokuchaphazela iinkampani ze-semiconductor.
Nangona kunjalo, inokunyusa ukuhanjiswa kwezinto kwezinye iimarike ezikhule kunye nemarike yeemoto kwiminyaka emihlanu edlulileyo. I-Auto ilindele ukuba onke amashishini akhule kakhulu kwiminyaka ezayo - phantse ngenxa yeendleko eziphantsi kunye nokufikelela okwandileyo kwizinto.
Isibhengezo sikaTesla sithumele amaza othusayo kulo lonke eli shishini, kodwa xa sicinga ngakumbi, umbono weSiC usahleli ulungile kakhulu. Iza kuya phi iTesla ngokulandelayo - kwaye eli shishini liza kusabela njani kwaye lizivumelanise njani nezimo? Sifanele siwuqwalasele.
Ixesha leposi: Matshi-27-2023