E ai ki tētahi pūrongo i tukuna e TrendForce Consulting, i te mea kua mārama a Anson, Infineon me ētahi atu kaupapa mahi tahi me ngā kaihanga motuka me te pūngao, ka piki ake te mākete wāhanga hiko SiC whānui ki te 2.28 piriona tāra US i te tau 2023 (tuhipoka kāinga IT: tata ki te 15.869 piriona yuan), he pikinga 41.4% i ia tau.
E ai ki te pūrongo, ko ngā mea hanga haurua-whakatipuranga tuatoru kei roto ko te silicon carbide (SiC) me te gallium nitride (GaN), ā, e 80% o te uara putanga katoa te SiC. He pai te SiC mō ngā whakamahinga ngaohiko teitei me te au teitei, ka taea ai te whakapai ake i te whai huatanga o ngā waka hiko me te pūnaha taputapu pūngao whakahou.
E ai ki a TrendForce, ko ngā tono matua e rua mō ngā wāhanga hiko SiC ko ngā waka hiko me te pūngao hou, kua eke ki te $1.09 piriona me te $210 miriona i te tau 2022 (tata ki te RMB7.586 piriona i tēnei wā). Koia te 67.4% me te 13.1% o te mākete wāhanga hiko SiC katoa.
E ai ki a TrendForce Consulting, e matapaetia ana ka eke te mākete wāhanga hiko SiC ki te $5.33 piriona i te tau 2026 (tata ki te 37.097 piriona yuan i tēnei wā). Kei te whakawhirinaki tonu ngā tono matua ki ngā waka hiko me te pūngao whakahou, me te uara putanga o ngā waka hiko e eke ana ki te $3.98 piriona (tata ki te 27.701 piriona yuan i tēnei wā), CAGR (tere tipu ā-tau) tata ki te 38%; Pūngao whakahou i eke ki te 410 miriona tāra US (tata ki te 2.854 piriona yuan i tēnei wā), CAGR tata ki te 19%.
Kāore a Tesla i aukati i ngā kaiwhakahaere SiC
Ko te tipu o te mākete silicon carbide (SiC) i roto i ngā tau e rima kua pahure ake nei, i whakawhirinaki nui ki a Tesla, te kaihanga taputapu taketake tuatahi ki te whakamahi i te rauemi i roto i ngā waka hiko, me te kaihoko nui rawa atu i ēnei rā. Nō reira, i te wā i panuitia ai e ia kua kitea he huarahi hei whakaiti i te nui o te SiC e whakamahia ana i roto i ana waeine hiko a meake nei mā te 75 ōrau, i mataku te umanga, ā, i pāngia ngā taonga o ngā kaitākaro matua.
He ahua whakamataku te whakahekenga o te 75 ōrau, ina koa kāore he horopaki nui, engari he maha ngā āhuatanga pea kei muri i te panuitanga – kāore tetahi o ēnei e tohu ana i te whakahekenga nui o te hiahia mō ngā rauemi, o te mākete whānui rānei.
Horopaki 1: He iti ake ngā taputapu
Ko te kaitahuri maramara-48 i roto i te Tesla Model 3 e ahu mai ana i te hangarau auaha rawa atu i te wā o te whanaketanga (2017). Heoi, i te pakeketanga o te pūnaha SiC, he whai wāhitanga ki te whakawhānui ake i te mahi a ngā papa SiC mā roto i ngā hoahoa pūnaha matatau ake me te whakaurunga teitei ake. Ahakoa kāore pea e taea e te hangarau kotahi te whakaiti i te SiC mā te 75%, ko ngā whanaketanga maha i roto i te takai, te whakamatao (arā, te taha-rua me te whakamatao-wai), me te hoahoa taputapu hongere ka arahi ki ngā taputapu kiato ake, pai ake te mahi. Kāore e kore ka tūhuratia e Tesla tētahi whai wāhitanga pēnei, ā, ko te whika 75% e pā ana ki tētahi hoahoa kaitahuri tino whakauru e whakaiti ana i te maha o ngā mate e whakamahia ana mai i te 48 ki te 12. Heoi, ki te pēnei te āhua, kāore e rite ki tētahi whakaiti pai o ngā rauemi SiC e ai ki te whakaaro.
I taua wā tonu, ko ētahi atu Oem e whakarewa ana i ngā waka 800V i te tau 2023-24 ka whakawhirinaki tonu ki te SiC, koinei te kaitono pai rawa atu mō ngā taputapu mana teitei me te ngaohiko teitei i tēnei wāhanga. Nō reira, kāore pea ngā Oem e kite i te pānga poto ki te urunga SiC.
E whakaatu ana tēnei āhuatanga i te nekehanga o te arotahi o te mākete motuka SiC mai i ngā rauemi mata ki te whakaurunga taputapu me ngā pūnaha. He mea nui te mahi a ngā kōwae hiko ināianei ki te whakapai ake i te utu me te mahi whānui, ā, he pakihi kōwae hiko ā ngā kaitākaro nui katoa i te ao SiC me ā rātou ake āheinga tākai ā-roto – tae atu ki a onsemi, STMicroelectronics me Infineon. Kei te whānui haere a Wolfspeed i tua atu i ngā rauemi mata ki ngā taputapu.
Horopaki 2: Ngā waka iti me ngā hiahia hiko iti
Kei te mahi a Tesla i tētahi waka hou mō te taumata tīmatanga hei whakangāwari ake i te whakamahi i āna waka. Ka iti ake te utu, ka iti ake hoki te kiato o te Model 2, te Model Q rānei i ō rātou waka o nāianei, ā, kāore e nui te SiC e hiahiatia ana e ngā waka iti ake me ngā āhuatanga iti ake hei whakakaha i a rātou. Heoi, tera pea ka mau tonu te hoahoa o āna tauira o nāianei, ā, me nui tonu te SiC e hiahiatia ana.
Ahakoa ōna painga katoa, he rauemi utu nui te SiC, ā, he maha ngā kamupene Oem kua whakaatu i te hiahia ki te whakaiti i ngā utu. Nā te mea kua kōrero a Tesla, te OEM nui rawa atu o te ao, mō ngā utu, ka pēhia pea ngā kamupene IDM ki te whakaiti i ngā utu. Tērā pea he rautaki te panuitanga a Tesla hei akiaki i ngā otinga whakataetae-utu? He mea whakamere te kite i te urupare a te umanga i ngā wiki/marama e haere ake nei…
Kei te whakamahi a Idms i ngā rautaki rerekē hei whakaiti i ngā utu, pērā i te hoko mai i ngā kaiwhakarato rerekē, te whakawhānui ake i te whakaputanga mā te whakanui ake i te kaha me te huri ki ngā anga whānui ake (6 "me te 8"). Ko te pikinga o te pēhanga ka tere ake te ako mō ngā kaitākaro puta noa i te mekameka tuku i tēnei rohe. Hei tāpiri, ko te pikinga o ngā utu ka taea te whakaiti i te utu o te SiC, ehara i te mea mō ētahi atu kaihanga motuka anake, engari mō ētahi atu tono anō hoki, ka taea ai te akiaki i tōna whakamahinga.
Horopaki 3: Whakakapia te SIC ki ētahi atu rauemi
Kei te aro nui ngā kaitātari i Yole Intelligence ki ētahi atu hangarau ka taea te whakataetae ki te SiC i roto i ngā waka hiko. Hei tauira, he nui ake te kaha o te SiC kua whakakōpikopikohia – ka kitea rānei e tātou ka whakakapi i te SiC papatahi ā muri ake nei?
Hei te tau 2023, ka whakamahia ngā Si IGBT i roto i ngā inverters EV, ā, kei te pai te tūnga i roto i te umanga e pā ana ki te kaha me te utu. Kei te whakapai tonu ngā kaihanga i te mahi, ā, tera pea ka whakaatuhia e tēnei papa te kaha o te tauira iti-mana kua whakahuatia i te horopaki tuarua, e māmā ake ai te whakanui ake i ngā rahinga nui. Tērā pea ka rāhuitia te SiC mō ngā motuka matatau ake, kaha ake a Tesla.
He nui te pūmanawa o te GaN-on-Si i roto i te mākete motuka, engari e kite ana ngā kaitātari he whakaaro roa tēnei (neke atu i te 5 tau i roto i ngā inverters i te ao tuku iho). Ahakoa kua kōrerohia ētahi kōrero i roto i te umanga mō te GaN, ko te hiahia o Tesla kia whakaitihia te utu me te whakanui ake i te papatipu, kāore pea e neke atu ki tētahi rauemi hou ake, kāore i te tino pakari i te SiC a muri ake nei. Engari ka taea e Tesla te tango i te hikoi maia ki te tango i tēnei rauemi auaha i te tuatahi? Mā te wā anake e whakaatu.
He paku pāngia ngā tukunga wafer, engari tera pea he mākete hou
Ahakoa he iti noa te pānga o te akiaki kia nui ake te whakaurunga ki te mākete taputapu, tera pea ka pā ki ngā tuku wafer. Ahakoa kāore i te tino nui pērā i te whakaaro o te tini i te tīmatanga, e tohu ana ia āhuatanga i te hekenga o te tono SiC, ka pā pea ki ngā kamupene semiconductor.
Heoi anō, ka taea e ia te whakanui ake i te tuku rauemi ki ētahi atu mākete kua tipu tahi me te mākete motuka i ngā tau e rima kua pahure ake nei. E matapaetia ana e te motuka ka tino tipu ngā ahumahi katoa i ngā tau e haere ake nei — nā te iti o ngā utu me te pikinga ake o te urunga atu ki ngā rauemi.
I ohorere te umanga i te panuitanga a Tesla, engari i muri i te whakaaroaro anō, he tino pai tonu te tirohanga mō te SiC. Kei hea a Tesla e anga atu ai - ā, me pēhea te urupare me te urutau a te umanga? He mea tika kia aro atu tātou ki tēnei.
Wā tuku: Maehe-27-2023