Raporo yashyizwe ahagaragara na TrendForce Consulting ivuga ko kubera ko imishinga ya Anson, Infineon n'indi mishinga y'ubufatanye n'inganda zikora imodoka n'ingufu isobanutse neza, isoko rusange ry'ingufu za SiC rizazamuka rigere kuri miliyari 2.28 z'amadolari y'Amerika mu 2023 (Icyitonderwa: hafi miliyari 15.869 z'amayuan), rizazamukaho 41.4% ugereranyije n'umwaka.
Nk’uko raporo ibivuga, semiconductors zo mu gisekuru cya gatatu zirimo silicon carbide (SiC) na gallium nitride (GaN), kandi SiC ingana na 80% by’agaciro k’umusaruro wose. SiC ikwiriye gukoreshwa mu miterere y’amashanyarazi menshi n’amashanyarazi menshi, ibi bikaba bishobora kunoza imikorere y’imodoka zikoresha amashanyarazi n’ibikoresho by’ingufu zisubira.
Nk’uko TrendForce ibitangaza, ibintu bibiri bya mbere bikoreshwa mu gutanga ingufu za SiC ni imodoka zikoresha amashanyarazi n’ingufu zishobora kongera gukoreshwa, byageze kuri miliyari 1.09 z’amadolari y’Amerika na miliyoni 210 z’amadolari y’Amerika mu 2022 (ubu bingana na miliyari 7.586 z’amadolari y’Amerika). Bingana na 67.4% na 13.1% by’isoko ryose ry’ingufu za SiC.
Nk’uko TrendForce Consulting ibitangaza, isoko ry’ingufu za SiC ryitezwe kugera kuri miliyari 5.33 z’amadolari mu 2026 (ubu ni hafi miliyari 37.097 z’amayuan). Ikoreshwa ry’ingenzi riracyashingiye ku modoka zikoresha amashanyarazi n’ingufu zishobora kongera gukoreshwa, aho umusaruro w’imodoka zikoresha amashanyarazi ugera kuri miliyari 3.98 z’amadolari (ubu ni hafi miliyari 27.701 z’amayuan), CAGR (igipimo cy’izamuka ry’ingufu ku mwaka) kingana na 38%; Ingufu zishobora kongera gukoreshwa zageze kuri miliyoni 410 z’amadolari y’Amerika (ubu ni hafi miliyari 2.854 z’amayuan), CAGR ingana na 19%.
Tesla ntiyabujije abakora SiC
Iterambere ry'isoko rya silicon carbide (SiC) mu myaka itanu ishize ryashingiye cyane kuri Tesla, uruganda rwa mbere rw'ibikoresho bya mbere rwakoresheje ibikoresho mu modoka zikoresha amashanyarazi, rukaba n'umuguzi munini muri iki gihe. Rero ubwo iherutse gutangaza ko yabonye uburyo bwo kugabanya ingano ya SiC ikoreshwa mu bikoresho byayo by'amashanyarazi ku kigero cya 75 ku ijana, inganda zaratangaye cyane, maze ububiko bw'abashoramari bakomeye burangirika.
Kugabanya 75% bisa nkaho biteye ubwoba, cyane cyane nta makuru menshi ajyanye n’iri tangazo, ariko hari ibintu byinshi bishobora kubaho nyuma y’iri tangazo - nta na kimwe muri byo kigaragaza ko igabanuka rikomeye ry’ibikenewe mu bikoresho cyangwa isoko muri rusange.
Urugero rwa 1: Ibikoresho bike
Inverter ifite chip 48 muri Tesla Model 3 ishingiye ku ikoranabuhanga rigezweho cyane ryari rihari mu gihe cyo gutera imbere (2017). Ariko, uko ibidukikije bya SiC bigenda bikura, hari amahirwe yo kwagura imikorere ya substrates za SiC binyuze mu bishushanyo mbonera bya sisitemu bigezweho hamwe no guhuza neza. Nubwo bidashoboka ko ikoranabuhanga rimwe ryagabanya SiC ho 75%, iterambere ritandukanye mu gupakira, gukonjesha (ni ukuvuga, gukonjesha impande ebyiri n'amazi), n'imiterere y'ibikoresho bya channeled bishobora gutuma ibikoresho bito kandi bikora neza. Nta gushidikanya ko Tesla izashakisha ayo mahirwe, kandi imibare ya 75% ishobora kuba yerekeza ku gishushanyo mbonera cya inverter gifite ikoranabuhanga rinini rigabanya umubare w'ibikoresho ikoresha kuva kuri 48 kugeza kuri 12. Ariko, niba ari uko bimeze, ntabwo bingana no kugabanya neza ibikoresho bya SiC nk'uko byavuzwe.
Hagati aho, izindi Oems zizashyira ahagaragara imodoka za 800V muri 2023-24 zizakomeza kwishingikiriza kuri SiC, ari nayo nziza kurusha izindi mu bikoresho bifite ingufu nyinshi n’amashanyarazi menshi muri iki gice. Kubera iyo mpamvu, Oems zishobora kutabona ingaruka z’igihe gito ku kwinjira kwa SiC.
Ibi bigaragaza impinduka mu isoko ry’imodoka rya SiC aho kwibanda ku bikoresho fatizo bijya mu guhuza ibikoresho na sisitemu. Ibikoresho by’amashanyarazi ubu bigira uruhare runini mu kunoza ikiguzi n’imikorere muri rusange, kandi abakinnyi bose bakomeye mu ishami rya SiC bafite ubucuruzi bw’ibicuruzwa by’amashanyarazi bifite ubushobozi bwo gupakira imbere - harimo na onsemi, STMicroelectronics na Infineon. Wolfspeed ubu irimo kwaguka ikagera ku bikoresho fatizo.
Urugero rwa 2: Imodoka nto zifite ingufu nkeya
Tesla imaze igihe ikora ku modoka nshya yo mu rwego rwo hejuru kugira ngo yorohereze imodoka zayo gukoresha. Model 2 cyangwa Model Q izaba ihendutse kandi iciriritse kurusha imodoka zabo zisanzwe, kandi imodoka nto zifite imiterere mike ntizikenera SiC nyinshi kugira ngo zizikoreshe. Ariko, moderi zayo zisanzwe zishobora kugumana imiterere imwe kandi zigasaba SiC nyinshi muri rusange.
Nubwo ari byiza, SiC ni ibikoresho bihenze, kandi amasosiyete menshi ya Oems yagaragaje icyifuzo cyo kugabanya ibiciro. None se ko Tesla, ikigo kinini cyane muri uru rwego, cyagize icyo kivuga ku biciro, ibi bishobora gushyira igitutu ku masosiyete ya IDM kugira ngo agabanye ibiciro. Ese itangazo rya Tesla ryaba ari ingamba zo guteza imbere ibisubizo bigezweho ku giciro? Bizaba bishimishije kureba uko inganda zibyitwaramo mu byumweru/amezi ari imbere…
Idms irimo gukoresha ingamba zitandukanye kugira ngo igabanye ibiciro, nko gushaka substrate ku batanga serivisi zitandukanye, kwagura umusaruro binyuze mu kongera ubushobozi no guhindura wafer nini (6 "na 8"). Ubwiyongere bw'umuvuduko bushobora kwihutisha intera yo kwiga ku bakinnyi bo mu ruhererekane rw'ibikoresho muri uru rwego. Byongeye kandi, izamuka ry'ibiciro rishobora gutuma SiC ihendutse cyane atari ku zindi modoka gusa ahubwo no ku zindi porogaramu, bishobora gutuma ikoreshwa cyane.
Urugero rwa 3: Simbuza SIC ibindi bikoresho
Abasesenguzi bo muri Yole Intelligence barimo gukurikiranira hafi izindi koranabuhanga zishobora guhangana na SiC mu modoka zikoresha amashanyarazi. Urugero, SiC ifite groove itanga ingufu nyinshi - ese tuzayibona isimbura SiC ifite imiterere y'ubutaka mu gihe kizaza?
Mu 2023, Si IGBTs zizakoreshwa mu byuma bihindura amashanyarazi kandi zizaba zihagaze neza mu nganda mu bijyanye n'ubushobozi n'igiciro. Abakora baracyakomeza kunoza imikorere, kandi iyi substrate ishobora kugaragaza ubushobozi bw'imashini ikoresha ingufu nke yavuzwe mu gice cya kabiri, bigatuma byoroha kuyigura ku bwinshi. Wenda SiC izaba igenewe imodoka za Tesla zigezweho kandi zikomeye.
GaN-on-Si igaragaza ubushobozi bukomeye ku isoko ry'imodoka, ariko abasesenguzi babona ibi nk'ikintu kigomba kwitabwaho mu gihe kirekire (imyaka irenga 5 mu byuma bihindura ikirere mu isi gakondo). Nubwo habayeho ibiganiro mu nganda zikikije GaN, kuba Tesla ikeneye kugabanya ikiguzi no kongera umubare w'ibikoresho bituma bidashoboka ko izajya mu bikoresho bishya kandi bitakuze cyane nka SiC mu gihe kizaza. Ariko se Tesla ishobora gutera intambwe ikomeye yo gukoresha ibi bikoresho bishya mbere na mbere? Igihe ni cyo kizabigaragaza.
Kohereza amafi ya Wafer byagize ingaruka nke, ariko hashobora kuba hari amasoko mashya
Nubwo gushishikariza abantu gukoresha ibikoresho bya elegitoroniki mu buryo bwagutse bizagira ingaruka nke ku isoko ry’ibikoresho, bishobora kugira ingaruka ku kohereza ibikoresho bya elegitoroniki. Nubwo bitabaye bikomeye nkuko benshi babitekerezaga mbere, buri kibazo kigaragaza ko igabanuka ry’ubusabe bwa SiC, bishobora kugira ingaruka ku bigo bya elegitoroniki.
Ariko, bishobora kongera uburyo ibikoresho bitangwa ku yandi masoko yazamutse hamwe n’isoko ry’imodoka mu myaka itanu ishize. Auto yiteze ko inganda zose zizakura cyane mu myaka iri imbere - hafi ya byose bitewe n’ibiciro biri hasi no kwiyongera kw’ibikoresho.
Itangazo rya Tesla ryatangaje cyane inganda, ariko iyo turebye neza, icyerekezo cya SiC kiracyari cyiza cyane. Tesla izakurikiraho igana he - kandi inganda zizakora iki kandi zigahindura imikorere yazo? Birakwiye ko twitaho.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Werurwe-27-2023