"Aaway gaariga shidaalka ee xun, maxaan u horumarineynaa gawaarida tamarta cusub?" Tani waa inay noqotaa su'aasha ugu weyn ee dadka badankoodu ka fikiraan "jihada dabaysha" ee hadda jirta ee warshadaha baabuurta. Iyada oo la taageerayo hal-ku-dhegyada waaweyn ee "yaraynta tamarta", "badbaadinta tamarta iyo yaraynta qiiqa" iyo "soo-saarka wax soo saarka", baahida Shiinaha ee ah inuu horumariyo ilo tamar cusub weli bulshadu ma aqoonsanin oo ma aqoonsanin.
Runtii, ka dib tobanaan sano oo horumar joogto ah laga sameeyay gawaarida matoorada gubashada gudaha, nidaamka wax soo saarka ee hadda jira ee bisil, taageerada suuqa iyo alaabada qiimaha jaban iyo kuwa tayada sare leh ayaa adkeynaya in la fahmo sababta warshaduhu uga tagayaan "waddadan fidsan" oo ay u jeestaan horumarinta. Tamarta cusub waa "waddo dhoobo ah" oo aan weli khatar ahayn. Maxaan u horumarinaynaa warshad tamar cusub? Su'aashan fudud oo toos ah waa faham la'aanta iyo aan la garanayn dhammaanteen.
Toddobo sano ka hor, "Siyaasadda Tamarta Shiinaha ee 2012 Warqadda Cad", qorshaha istiraatiijiyadeed ee qaranka "wuxuu si adag u horumarin doonaa tamar cusub iyo tamar la cusboonaysiin karo". Tan iyo markaas, warshadaha baabuurta ee Shiinaha ayaa si degdeg ah isu beddelay, waxayna si dhakhso ah uga wareegeen istaraatiijiyad baabuur shidaal ah una beddeleen istiraatiijiyad tamar cusub. Intaa ka dib, noocyo kala duwan oo ah alaabada tamarta cusub ee lala xiriiriyo "kaalmo" ayaa si degdeg ah u soo galay suuqa, codka shakigana wuxuu bilaabay inuu ku wareegsanaado warshadaha tamarta cusub.
Codka su'aalaha ayaa ka yimid dhinacyo kala duwan, mowduucuna wuxuu sidoo kale si toos ah u horseeday kor iyo hoos warshadaha. Waa maxay xaaladda hadda ee tamarta dhaqameed ee Shiinaha iyo tamarta la cusboonaysiin karo? Warshadaha wax soo saarka baabuurta ee Shiinaha ma u janjeeri karaan inay dhaafaan? Sidee loola macaamilaa gawaarida tamarta cusub ee mustaqbalka hawlgabka ah, iyo haddii wasakhowga jiro? Inta badan shakiga, kalsoonida yar, sida loo helo xaaladda dhabta ah ee ka dambeysa dhibaatooyinkan, rubuca hore ee tiirka ayaa bartilmaameedsan doona qalabka muhiimka ah ee ku wareegsan warshadaha - batteriga.
Tiirarku waa "arrimaha tamarta" oo aan laga fursan karin
Si ka duwan gaariga shidaalka, gaaska uma baahna side (haddii haanta shidaalka aan la tirin), laakiin "korontada" waxaa loo baahan yahay in baytarigu qaado. Sidaa darteed, haddii aad rabto inaad dib ugu laabato isha warshadaha, markaa "korontada" waa tallaabada ugu horreysa ee horumarinta tamarta cusub. Arrinta korontadu waxay si toos ah ugu xiran tahay arrinta tamarta. Waxaa jira su'aal cad oo hadda jirta: Ma run ahaantii si xooggan loo horumarinayaa ilaha tamarta cusub sababtoo ah kaydka tamarta midaysan ee Shiinaha ayaa soo dhow? Markaa ka hor inta aynaan runtii ka hadlin horumarinta baytariyada iyo tamarta cusub, waa inaan ka jawaabnaa su'aalaha ku saabsan su'aasha hadda ee Shiinaha ee ah "isticmaalka korontada ama isticmaalka saliidda".
Su'aal 1aad: Xaaladda hadda ee tamarta dhaqameed ee Shiinaha
Si ka duwan sababta ay aadanuhu ugu horreyn u tijaabiyeen gawaarida korontada ku shaqeeya ee saafiga ah 100 sano ka hor, kacaanka cusub waxaa sababay isbeddelka "shidaalka dhaqameed" una wareegay "tamarta la cusboonaysiin karo". Waxaa jira "noocyo" kala duwan oo ku saabsan fasiraadda xaaladda tamarta Shiinaha ee internetka, laakiin dhinacyo badan oo xog ah ayaa muujinaya in kaydka tamarta dhaqameed ee Shiinaha uusan ahayn mid aan loo adkaysan karin oo walwal leh sida gudbinta shabakadda, kaydka saliidda ee si dhow ula xiriira baabuurta ayaa sidoo kale ay ka hadlaan dadweynaha. Mid ka mid ah mowduucyada ugu badan.
Sida laga soo xigtay xogta ku jirta Warbixinta Tamarta Shiinaha 2018, inkastoo wax soo saarka saliidda gudaha uu hoos u dhacayo, Shiinaha wuxuu ku jiray xaalad deggan marka loo eego ganacsiga soo dejinta tamarta iyadoo kororka isticmaalka saliidda uu kordhay. Tani waxay caddayn kartaa in ugu yaraan horumarka hadda ee tamarta cusub uusan si toos ah ula xiriirin "kaydka saliidda."
Laakiin si dadban ayaa isku xiran? Marka la eego ganacsiga tamarta ee deggan, ku tiirsanaanta tamarta ee dhaqameed ee Shiinaha ayaa weli sarreysa. Wadarta guud ee soo dejinta tamarta, saliidda cayriin waxay ka dhigan tahay 66% halka dhuxushuna ay ka tahay 18%. Marka la barbardhigo 2017, soo dejinta saliidda cayriin waxay sii waddaa inay si degdeg ah u korto. Sannadkii 2018, soo dejinta saliidda cayriin ee Shiinaha waxay gaartay 460 milyan oo tan, taasoo ah koror sanadle ah oo ah 10%. Ku tiirsanaanta saliidda cayriin ee waddamada shisheeye waxay gaartay 71%, taasoo la macno ah in in ka badan laba meelood meel saliidda cayriin ee Shiinaha ay ku tiirsan tahay soo dejinta.
Ka dib horumarinta warshadaha cusub ee tamarta, isbeddelka isticmaalka saliidda Shiinaha ayaa sii socda, laakiin marka la barbardhigo 2017, isticmaalka saliidda Shiinaha ayaa weli kor u kacay 3.4%. Marka la eego awoodda wax soo saarka saliidda cayriin, waxaa jiray hoos u dhac weyn sannadihii 2016-2018 marka la barbar dhigo 2015, isbeddelka jihadana wuxuu kordhiyay ku tiirsanaanta ganacsiga saliidda ee la soo dejiyo.
Xaaladda hadda jirta ee kaydka tamarta dhaqameed ee Shiinaha ee "ku-tiirsanaanta dadban", waxaa sidoo kale la rajeynayaa in horumarinta warshadaha tamarta cusub ay sidoo kale beddeli doonto qaab-dhismeedka isticmaalka tamarta. Sannadkii 2018, isticmaalka tamarta nadiifka ah sida gaaska dabiiciga ah, korontada biyaha, tamarta nukliyeerka iyo tamarta dabaysha ayaa ka dhigan 22.1% wadarta isticmaalka tamarta, taas oo sii kordheysay sannado badan.
Marka loo gudbo tamarta nadiifka ah ee ilaha tamarta dhaqameed, bartilmaameedka caalamiga ah ee kaarboon yar, oo aan kaarboon lahayn hadda waa mid isku mid ah, sida noocyada baabuurta ee Yurub iyo Ameerika ay hadda u nadiifinayaan "waqtiga la joojinayo iibinta gawaarida shidaalka". Si kastaba ha ahaatee, dalalku waxay ku tiirsan yihiin ilo tamar dhaqameed oo kala duwan, "la'aanta kheyraadka saliidda cayriin" ee Shiinaha waa mid ka mid ah dhibaatooyinka ku jira u gudubka tamarta nadiifka ah. Zhu Xi, oo ah agaasimaha Dhaqaalaha Tamarta ee Akadeemiyada Sayniska Bulshada ee Shiinaha, ayaa yiri: "Sababtoo ah waayihii kala duwanaa ee dalalka, Shiinuhu wali wuxuu ku jiraa xilligii dhuxusha, adduunku wuxuu galay xilligii saliidda iyo gaaska, geeddi-socodka loogu dhaqaaqayo nidaamka tamarta la cusboonaysiin karo mustaqbalka hubaal waa ka duwan yahay. Shiinuhu wuxuu ka gudbi karaa saliidda iyo gaaska. Waqtiyada." Isha: Guriga Gawaarida
Waqtiga boostada: Noofambar-04-2019