"Mota yemafuta yakaipa kupi, sei tichifanira kugadzira mota itsva dzemagetsi?" Uyu unofanira kuva mubvunzo mukuru unofungidzirwa nevanhu vazhinji nezve "gwara remhepo" riripo parizvino muindasitiri yemotokari. Vachitsigirwa nemashoko makuru ekuti "kupera kwesimba", "kuchengetedza simba nekuderedza utsi" uye "kugadzira zvinhu zvitsva", kuda kweChina kugadzira masosi matsva esimba hakusati kwaonekwa uye kuzivikanwa nenzanga.
Zvechokwadi, mushure memakumi emakore ekufambira mberi kuri kuramba kuchienderera mberi mumotokari dzinoshandisa injini dzinopisa mukati, hurongwa hwekugadzira hwazvino, rutsigiro rwemusika uye zvigadzirwa zvakachipa uye zvemhando yepamusoro zvinoita kuti zviome kunzwisisa kuti nei indasitiri ichifanira kusiya "mugwagwa wakatsetseka" uyu yotendeukira kubudiriro. Simba idzva "inzira yematope" isati yava nengozi. Sei tichifanira kugadzira indasitiri itsva yesimba? Mubvunzo uyu uri nyore uye wakananga kusanzwisisa uye kusazivikanwa kwedu tese.
Makore manomwe apfuura, mu "China Energy Policy 2012 White Paper", hurongwa hwenyika "huchavandudza simba idzva nesimba rinogona kuvandudzwa" huchajekeswa. Kubva ipapo, indasitiri yemotokari yeChina yakachinja nekukurumidza, uye yakakurumidza kuchinja kubva pahurongwa hwemotokari yemafuta kuenda kuhurongwa hutsva hwesimba. Mushure meizvozvo, mhando dzakasiyana dzezvigadzirwa zvitsva zvesimba zvakabatana ne "rubatsiro" zvakakurumidza kupinda mumusika, uye inzwi rekusava nechokwadi rakatanga kutenderedza indasitiri yesimba idzva.
Inzwi rekubvunzana rakabuda mumativi akasiyana, uye nyaya yacho yakatungamirawo zvakananga kukukura nekudzika kweindasitiri. Ndeipi mamiriro aripo pari zvino esimba reChina remazuva ano uye simba rinodzokororwa? Indasitiri yekugadzira mota yeChina inogona here kukundwa? Maitiro ekugadzirisa mota itsva dzesimba dzakarega kushanda mune ramangwana, uye kana kusvibiswa kuripo here? Kana kusava nechokwadi kwakawanda, chivimbo chidiki, maitiro ekuwana mamiriro chaiwo ari shure kwematambudziko aya, chikamu chekutanga chekoramu chichananga kune kutakura kwakakosha kutenderera indasitiri - bhatiri.
Makoramu haadzivisiki "matambudziko esimba"
Kusiyana nemotokari yemafuta, peturu haidi kutakura (kana tangi remafuta risingaverengeki), asi "magetsi" anofanira kutakurwa nebhatiri. Saka, kana uchida kudzokera kunobva indasitiri, saka "magetsi" ndiyo nhanho yekutanga mukuvandudza simba idzva. Nyaya yemagetsi yakabatana zvakananga nenyaya yesimba. Pane mubvunzo wakajeka parizvino: Kukurudzira nesimba masosi matsva esimba zvechokwadi nekuti kuchengetedza simba kwakabatana kweChina kuri pedyo here? Saka tisati tataura nezvekuvandudzwa kwemabhatiri nesimba idzva, tinofanira kupindura mibvunzo nezvemubvunzo weChina we "kushandisa magetsi kana kushandisa mafuta".
Mubvunzo 1: Mamiriro ezvinhu aripo panguva ino esimba rechinyakare reChina
Kusiyana nechikonzero chakaita kuti vanhu vaedze mota dzemagetsi dzakachena makore zana apfuura, shanduko itsva yakakonzerwa nekuchinja kubva ku "mafuta echinyakare" kuenda ku "simba rinodzokororwa". Kune "shanduro" dzakasiyana pamusoro pekutsanangurwa kwemamiriro esimba reChina paInternet, asi zvinhu zvakawanda zvedata zvinoratidza kuti matura esimba echinyakare eChina haana kutsungiririka uye anonetsa sematura emagetsi, uye matura emafuta ane hukama nemotokari anokurukurwawo neveruzhinji. Imwe yenyaya dzakakosha.
Sekureva kwedata riri muChina Energy Report 2018, kunyangwe kugadzirwa kwemafuta emuno kuri kudzikira, China yave mumamiriro ezvinhu akagadzikana panyaya yekutengeserana kwesimba rinopinda munyika nekuwedzera kwekushandiswa kwemafuta. Izvi zvinogona kuratidza kuti zviri kuitika pari zvino zvesimba idzva hazvina chekuita zvakananga ne "nzvimbo yekuchengetedza mafuta."
Asi zvine chekuita nekutengeserana kwesimba kwakasimba here? Munyaya yekutengeserana kwesimba kwakasimba, kuvimba kwesimba reChina kwechinyakare kuchiri pamusoro. Pakati pesimba rese rinotengwa kunze kwenyika, mafuta asina kuchekwa anokwana 66% uye marasha anokwana 18%. Zvichienzaniswa na2017, mafuta asina kuchekwa anoramba achikura nekukurumidza. Muna 2018, mafuta asina kuchekwa anowanikwa kunze kwenyika neChina akasvika matani mamiriyoni 460, kuwedzera kwegore negore kwe10%. Kuvimba nemafuta asina kuchekwa kunyika dzekunze kwakasvika 71%, zvinoreva kuti anopfuura zvikamu zviviri muzvitatu zvemafuta asina kuchekwa eChina anoenderana nekutenga kunze kwenyika.
Mushure mekuvandudzwa kwemaindasitiri matsva esimba, maitiro ekushandiswa kwemafuta muChina ari kuramba achiderera, asi zvichienzaniswa negore ra2017, kushandiswa kwemafuta muChina kwakaramba kuchikwira ne3.4%. Panyaya yekukwanisa kugadzira mafuta asina kucheneswa, pakava nekuderera kukuru muna 2016-2018 zvichienzaniswa negore ra2015, uye kuchinja kwenzira kwakawedzera kuvimba nekutengesa mafuta kunze kwenyika.
Pasi pemamiriro aripo e "passive dependence" yeChina yekushandiswa kwesimba remagetsi, zvinotarisirwawo kuti kukura kweindasitiri itsva yesimba kuchachinjawo maitiro ekushandiswa kwesimba. Muna 2018, kushandiswa kwesimba rakachena senge gasi rechisikigo, simba remvura, simba renyukireya uye simba remhepo kwakaita 22.1% yekushandiswa kwesimba rese, izvo zvave zvichiwedzera kwemakore mazhinji.
Mukuchinja kwesimba rakachena mumasimba echinyakare, chinangwa chepasi rose chekushaya kabhoni yakawanda pasi rose, chisina kabhoni chakafanana pari zvino, sezvo makambani emotokari ekuEurope neAmerica ari kuzadzisa "nguva yekurega kutengesa mota dzemafuta". Zvisinei, nyika dzine kuvimba kwakasiyana pamasimba echinyakare, uye "kushomeka kwemafuta asina kucheneswa" kweChina ndeimwe yematambudziko ari mukuchinja kwesimba rakachena. Zhu Xi, director weEnergy Economics yeChinese Academy of Social Sciences, akati: "Nekuda kwenguva dzakasiyana dzenyika, China ichiri munguva yemarasha, nyika yapinda munguva yemafuta negasi, uye maitiro ekufambira mberi kune sisitimu yesimba rinogona kuvandudzwa mune ramangwana zvechokwadi akasiyana. China inogona kusanganisa mafuta negasi. Nguva." Chitubu: Car House
Nguva yekutumira: Mbudzi-04-2019