“Iphi imoto kaphethiloli embi, kungani kufanele sakhe izimoto ezintsha zamandla?” Lona kufanele kube ngumbuzo oyinhloko abantu abaningi abawucabangayo mayelana “nomoya ohambayo” wamanje embonini yezimoto. Ngaphansi kokusekelwa kweziqubulo ezinkulu “zokuphela kwamandla”, “ukonga amandla nokunciphisa ukukhishwa komoya” kanye “nokukhiqiza ukuze kuhlangatshezwane”, isidingo saseShayina sokuthuthukisa imithombo emisha yamandla asikabonwa futhi siqashelwe umphakathi.
Ngempela, ngemva kwamashumi eminyaka yentuthuko eqhubekayo ezimotweni zezinjini zokushisa zangaphakathi, uhlelo lwamanje lokukhiqiza oluvuthiwe, ukwesekwa kwemakethe kanye nemikhiqizo engabizi kakhulu nekhwalithi ephezulu kwenza kube nzima ukuqonda ukuthi kungani imboni kufanele ishiye lo “mgwaqo oyisicaba” iphendukele ekuthuthukisweni. Amandla amasha “ayindlela yodaka” engakabi yingozi. Kungani kufanele sithuthukise imboni entsha yamandla? Lo mbuzo olula noqondile ukungaqondi nokungaziwa kithi sonke.
Eminyakeni eyisikhombisa edlule, ku-“China Energy Policy 2012 White Paper”, uhlelo lwesu lukazwelonke “luzothuthukisa amandla amasha kanye namandla avuselelekayo” luzocaciswa. Kusukela ngaleso sikhathi, imboni yezimoto yaseShayina ishintshe ngokushesha, futhi ishintshe ngokushesha isu lezimoto zikaphethiloli yaya isu elisha lamandla. Ngemva kwalokho, izinhlobo ezahlukene zemikhiqizo yamandla emisha exhunywe “ezixhasweni” zangena ngokushesha emakethe, futhi izwi lokungabaza laqala ukuzungeza imboni yamandla amasha.
Izwi lemibuzo lavela ngezindlela ezahlukene, futhi isihloko saholela ngqo ekukhuphukeni naphansi kwemboni. Siyini isimo samanje samandla endabuko aseShayina kanye namandla avuselelekayo? Ingabe imboni yokukhiqiza izimoto yaseShayina ingagudluka? Ungabhekana kanjani nezimoto ezintsha zamandla eziphelelwe yisikhathi esikhathini esizayo, nokuthi ukungcola kukhona yini? Lapho ukungabaza okuningi, ukuzethemba okuncane, indlela yokuthola isimo sangempela ngemuva kwalezi zinkinga, ikota yokuqala yekholomu izogxila kumphathi obalulekile embonini - ibhethri.
Amakholomu “ayizinkinga zamandla” ezingagwenywa
Ngokungafani nemoto kaphethiloli, uphethiloli awudingi isithwali (uma ithangi likaphethiloli lingabalwa), kodwa “ugesi” udinga ukuthwalwa yibhethri. Ngakho-ke, uma ufuna ukubuyela emthonjeni wemboni, khona-ke “ugesi” isinyathelo sokuqala ekuthuthukisweni kwamandla amasha. Indaba kagesi ihlobene ngqo nenkinga yamandla. Kukhona umbuzo ocacile njengamanje: Ingabe ukukhuthaza ngamandla imithombo emisha yamandla ngempela kungenxa yokuthi indawo yokugcina amandla ehlanganisiwe yaseShayina iseduze? Ngakho-ke ngaphambi kokuba sikhulume ngempela ngokuthuthukiswa kwamabhethri namandla amasha, kufanele siphendule imibuzo mayelana nombuzo wamanje waseShayina “wokusebenzisa ugesi noma ukusebenzisa uwoyela”.
Umbuzo 1: Isimo samanje samandla endabuko aseShayina
Ngokungafani nesizathu esenza abantu baqale ukuzama izimoto zikagesi ezihlanzekile eminyakeni eyi-100 eyedlule, inguquko entsha yabangelwa ukushintsha kusuka “kuphethiloli wendabuko” kuya “kumandla avuselelekayo”. Kunezinhlobo “zezinguqulo” ezahlukene ekuchazeni isimo samandla saseShayina ku-inthanethi, kodwa izici eziningi zedatha zibonisa ukuthi izindawo zokugcina amandla zendabuko zaseShayina azibekezeleleki futhi azikhathazi njengokudluliselwa kwenethi, futhi izindawo zokugcina uwoyela ezihlobene eduze nezimoto nazo zixoxwa umphakathi. Esinye sezihloko ezibaluleke kakhulu.
Ngokusho kwedatha eku-China Energy Report 2018, yize ukukhiqizwa kukawoyela wasekhaya kwehla, i-China ibilokhu isesimweni esizinzile maqondana nokuhwebelana kwamandla okungenisa kanye nokwanda kokusetshenziswa kukawoyela. Lokhu kungafakazela ukuthi okungenani intuthuko yamanje yamandla amasha ayihlobene ngqo "nesitoreji sikawoyela."
Kodwa kuxhumene ngokungaqondile? Ngokwesimo sokuhweba ngamandla okuzinzile, ukuthembela kwamandla kwendabuko kweShayina kusephezulu. Phakathi kokungeniswa kwamandla okuphelele, uwoyela ongahluziwe ubanga u-66% kanti amalahle ubanga u-18%. Uma kuqhathaniswa no-2017, ukungeniswa kukawoyela ongahluziwe kuyaqhubeka nokukhula ngokushesha. Ngo-2018, ukungeniswa kukawoyela ongahluziwe eShayina kufinyelele kumathani ayizigidi ezingu-460, ukwanda konyaka nonyaka kwe-10%. Ukuthembela kukawoyela ongahluziwe emazweni angaphandle kufinyelele ku-71%, okusho ukuthi ngaphezu kwezingxenye ezimbili kwezintathu zikawoyela ongahluziwe waseShayina kuncike ekungenisweni kwamanye amazwe.
Ngemva kokuthuthukiswa kwezimboni ezintsha zamandla, umkhuba wokusetshenziswa kukawoyela eShayina uyaqhubeka nokwehla, kodwa uma kuqhathaniswa no-2017, ukusetshenziswa kukawoyela eShayina kusalokhu kukhuphuke ngo-3.4%. Ngokuphathelene namandla okukhiqiza uwoyela ongahluziwe, kube nokwehla okukhulu ngo-2016-2018 uma kuqhathaniswa no-2015, futhi ukushintsha kwendlela kwandisa ukuncika ekuthengisweni kukawoyela kwamanye amazwe.
Ngaphansi kwesimo samanje se-"passive dependence" yendabuko yaseShayina yokugcina amandla, kunethemba lokuthi ukuthuthukiswa kwemboni entsha yamandla kuzoshintsha nesakhiwo sokusetshenziswa kwamandla. Ngo-2018, ukusetshenziswa kwamandla ahlanzekile njengegesi yemvelo, ugesi wamanzi, ugesi wenuzi kanye namandla omoya kwaba ngu-22.1% wokusetshenziswa kwamandla okuphelele, obekulokhu kukhula iminyaka eminingi.
Ekushintsheni kwamandla ahlanzekile emithonjeni yamandla yendabuko, umgomo womhlaba wonke ongenawo ikhabhoni ephansi, ongenakhabhoni okwamanje uyafana, njengoba nje izinkampani zezimoto zaseYurophu naseMelika seziqeda “isikhathi sokuyeka ukuthengisa izimoto zikaphethiloli”. Kodwa-ke, amazwe ancike ngendlela ehlukile emithonjeni yamandla yendabuko, futhi “ukuntuleka kwemithombo kawoyela ongahluziwe” kweShayina kungenye yezinkinga ekushintsheni kwamandla ahlanzekile. UZhu Xi, umqondisi we-Energy Economics ye-Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, uthe: “Ngenxa yezinkathi ezahlukene zamazwe, iShayina isesenkathini yamalahle, umhlaba ungene enkathini kawoyela negesi, futhi inqubo yokuya ohlelweni lwamandla avuselelekayo esikhathini esizayo ihlukile impela. IShayina ingase ihlanganise uwoyela negesi. Izikhathi.” Umthombo: Indlu Yezimoto
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Novemba-04-2019