"Kodi galimoto yamafuta ili kuti, n’chifukwa chiyani tiyenera kupanga magalimoto atsopano amphamvu?" Ili liyenera kukhala funso lalikulu lomwe anthu ambiri amaganizira za "njira ya mphepo" yomwe makampani opanga magalimoto akugwiritsa ntchito panopa. Mothandizidwa ndi mawu akuluakulu akuti "kuchepa kwa mphamvu", "kusunga mphamvu ndi kuchepetsa utsi woipa" ndi "kupanga zinthu zatsopano", kufunikira kwa China kupanga magwero atsopano a mphamvu sikunadziwikebe ndi kuvomerezedwa ndi anthu.
Zoonadi, pambuyo pa zaka makumi ambiri za kupita patsogolo kosalekeza m'magalimoto oyaka mkati, makina opangira zinthu okhwima omwe alipo, chithandizo cha msika, ndi zinthu zotsika mtengo komanso zapamwamba zimapangitsa kuti zikhale zovuta kumvetsetsa chifukwa chake makampaniwa ayenera kusiya "msewu wathyathyathya" uwu ndikuyamba chitukuko. Mphamvu zatsopano ndi "njira yamatope" yomwe siili yoopsa. Nchifukwa chiyani tiyenera kupanga makampani atsopano amagetsi? Funso losavuta komanso losavuta ili ndi kusamvetsetsa komanso kusadziwika kwa tonsefe.
Zaka zisanu ndi ziwiri zapitazo, mu "China Energy Policy 2012 White Paper", dongosolo ladziko lonse "lidzakhazikitsa mphamvu zatsopano ndi mphamvu zongowonjezwdwanso" lidzafotokozedwa bwino. Kuyambira pamenepo, makampani opanga magalimoto ku China asintha mofulumira, ndipo asintha mwachangu kuchoka pa njira yogwiritsira ntchito magalimoto amafuta kupita ku njira yatsopano yamagetsi. Pambuyo pake, mitundu yosiyanasiyana ya zinthu zatsopano zamagetsi zolumikizidwa ndi "thandizo" zinalowa mwachangu pamsika, ndipo mawu okayikira anayamba kuzungulira makampani opanga mphamvu zatsopano.
Mawu a mafunso anachokera mbali zosiyanasiyana, ndipo nkhaniyi inatsogolera mwachindunji ku kukwera ndi kutsika kwa makampani. Kodi momwe mphamvu zachikhalidwe zaku China zilili panopa ndi zotani? Kodi makampani opanga magalimoto aku China angasinthe? Kodi tingatani ndi magalimoto atsopano amphamvu omwe achotsedwa ntchito mtsogolo, komanso ngati kuipitsidwa kulipo? Kukayikira kochuluka, chidaliro chochepa, momwe mungapezere momwe zinthu zilili kumbuyo kwa mavutowa, gawo loyamba la gawoli lidzayang'ana chonyamulira chofunikira kwambiri m'makampani - batri.
Mizati ndi "mavuto amphamvu" osapeŵeka
Mosiyana ndi galimoto yamafuta, mafuta safuna chonyamulira (ngati thanki yamafuta siiwerengedwa), koma "magetsi" amafunika kunyamulidwa ndi batire. Chifukwa chake, ngati mukufuna kubwerera ku gwero la mafakitale, ndiye kuti "magetsi" ndiye gawo loyamba pakukula kwa mphamvu zatsopano. Nkhani yamagetsi ikugwirizana mwachindunji ndi nkhani yamagetsi. Pali funso lomveka bwino pakadali pano: Kodi kulimbikitsa mwamphamvu magwero atsopano amagetsi kwenikweni chifukwa chakuti mphamvu yogwirizana ya China ili pafupi kusungidwa? Chifukwa chake tisanalankhule za chitukuko cha mabatire ndi mphamvu zatsopano, tiyenera kuyankha mafunso okhudza funso lomwe likufunsidwa ku China la "kugwiritsa ntchito magetsi kapena kugwiritsa ntchito mafuta".
Funso 1: Momwe mphamvu zachikhalidwe zaku China zilili masiku ano
Mosiyana ndi chifukwa chomwe anthu adayesera magalimoto amagetsi okha zaka 100 zapitazo, kusintha kwatsopano kumeneku kudachitika chifukwa cha kusintha kuchoka pa "mafuta achikhalidwe" kupita ku "mphamvu zongowonjezwdwanso". Pali "mitundu" yosiyanasiyana yokhudza kutanthauzira kwa momwe mphamvu za China zilili pa intaneti, koma mbali zambiri za deta zikuwonetsa kuti mphamvu zachikhalidwe zaku China sizosapiririka komanso zodetsa nkhawa ngati ma netiweki, ndipo mafuta osungira omwe ali okhudzana kwambiri ndi magalimoto amakambidwanso ndi anthu. Chimodzi mwa mitu yofunika kwambiri.
Malinga ndi deta yomwe ili mu China Energy Report 2018, ngakhale kuti kupanga mafuta m'dziko muno kukuchepa, China yakhala ikukhazikika pankhani ya malonda a mphamvu zochokera kunja chifukwa cha kuchuluka kwa kugwiritsa ntchito mafuta. Izi zitha kutsimikizira kuti chitukuko cha mphamvu zatsopano chomwe chikuchitika panopa sichikugwirizana mwachindunji ndi "malo osungira mafuta."
Koma kodi pali kugwirizana kwina? Pankhani ya malonda okhazikika a mphamvu, kudalira kwachikhalidwe kwa mphamvu ku China kukukulirakulirabe. Pakati pa mphamvu zonse zomwe zimatumizidwa kunja, mafuta osakonzedwa ndi 66% ndipo malasha ndi 18%. Poyerekeza ndi 2017, kuitanitsa mafuta osakonzedwa kukupitilizabe kukula mofulumira. Mu 2018, kuitanitsa mafuta osakonzedwa ku China kunafika matani 460 miliyoni, kuwonjezeka kwa chaka ndi chaka kwa 10%. Kudalira mafuta osakonzedwa kumayiko akunja kunafika pa 71%, zomwe zikutanthauza kuti mafuta osakonzedwa ku China opitilira magawo awiri mwa atatu amadalira mafuta osakonzedwa.
Pambuyo pa chitukuko cha mafakitale atsopano amagetsi, kagwiritsidwe ntchito ka mafuta ku China kakupitirira kuchepa, koma poyerekeza ndi chaka cha 2017, kugwiritsa ntchito mafuta ku China kukukwerabe ndi 3.4%. Ponena za mphamvu zopangira mafuta osakonzedwa, panali kuchepa kwakukulu mu 2016-2018 poyerekeza ndi chaka cha 2015, ndipo kusintha kwa njira kunawonjezera kudalira kwambiri malonda a mafuta ochokera kunja.
Malinga ndi momwe zinthu zilili panopa ku China chifukwa cha "kudalira mphamvu zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito nthawi zonse", tikukhulupiriranso kuti chitukuko cha makampani atsopano amagetsi chidzasinthanso momwe magetsi amagwiritsidwira ntchito. Mu 2018, kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu zoyera monga gasi wachilengedwe, mphamvu yamadzi, mphamvu ya nyukiliya ndi mphamvu ya mphepo kunapanga 22.1% ya mphamvu zonse zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito, zomwe zakhala zikuwonjezeka kwa zaka zambiri.
Pakusintha kwa mphamvu zoyera m'magwero a mphamvu zachikhalidwe, cholinga cha dziko lonse chopanda mpweya woipa, chopanda mpweya woipa chikugwirizana, monga momwe makampani a magalimoto aku Europe ndi America akupezera "nthawi yoti asiye kugulitsa magalimoto amafuta". Komabe, mayiko ali ndi kudalira kosiyana pa magwero a mphamvu zachikhalidwe, ndipo "kusowa kwa mafuta osakonzedwa" kwa China ndi chimodzi mwa mavuto omwe akukumana nawo pakusintha kwa mphamvu zoyera. Zhu Xi, mkulu wa Energy Economics wa Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, anati: "Chifukwa cha nthawi zosiyanasiyana za mayiko, China ikadali mu nthawi ya malasha, dziko lapansi lalowa mu nthawi ya mafuta ndi gasi, ndipo njira yopitira ku njira yogwiritsira ntchito mphamvu zongowonjezwdwanso mtsogolomu ndi yosiyana. China ikhoza kudutsa mafuta ndi gasi. Nthawi." Gwero: Car House
Nthawi yotumizira: Novembala-04-2019