A ranar 30 ga Janairu, Kamfanin British Petroleum (BP) ya fitar da rahoton "World Energy Outlook" na shekarar 2023, yana mai jaddada cewa man fetur a cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci ya fi muhimmanci a sauyin makamashi, amma ƙarancin samar da makamashi a duniya, hayakin carbon yana ci gaba da ƙaruwa kuma ana sa ran wasu abubuwa za su hanzarta sauyin kore da ƙarancin carbon, rahoton ya gabatar da yanayi huɗu na ci gaban makamashi a duniya, kuma ya yi hasashen ƙarancin haɓakar hydrocarbon zuwa 2050.
Rahoton ya nuna cewa a cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci, man fetur zai taka muhimmiyar rawa a cikin tsarin sauyin makamashi, amma ƙarancin makamashi a duniya, ci gaba da ƙaruwar hayakin carbon da kuma yawan faruwar yanayi mai tsanani zai hanzarta sauyin makamashi a duniya mai kore da ƙarancin carbon. Canjin da ya dace yana buƙatar magance tsaron makamashi, araha da dorewa a lokaci guda; Makomar makamashi ta duniya za ta nuna manyan halaye guda huɗu: raguwar rawar da makamashin hydrocarbon ke takawa, saurin haɓaka makamashi mai sabuntawa, ƙaruwar ƙarfin lantarki, da ci gaba da haɓaka ƙarancin amfani da hydrocarbon.
Rahoton ya ɗauka cewa ci gaban tsarin makamashi zai kai ga shekarar 2050 a ƙarƙashin yanayi uku: saurin sauyawa, sifili da kuma sabon ƙarfi. Rahoton ya nuna cewa a ƙarƙashin yanayin sauyawa mai sauri, fitar da hayakin carbon zai ragu da kusan kashi 75%; A cikin yanayin sifili, fitar da hayakin carbon zai ragu da fiye da kashi 95; A ƙarƙashin sabon yanayin canzawa (wanda ke ɗaukar cewa yanayin ci gaban makamashi na duniya gaba ɗaya a cikin shekaru biyar da suka gabata, gami da ci gaban fasaha, rage farashi, da sauransu, da kuma ƙarfin manufofin duniya zai ci gaba da canzawa a cikin shekaru biyar zuwa 30 masu zuwa), fitar da hayakin carbon a duniya zai kai kololuwa a cikin shekarun 2020 kuma ya rage fitar da hayakin carbon a duniya da kusan kashi 30% nan da shekarar 2050 idan aka kwatanta da shekarar 2019.
Rahoton ya yi jayayya cewa ƙarancin hydrocarbons suna taka muhimmiyar rawa a sauyin makamashi mai ƙarancin carbon, musamman a masana'antu, sufuri da sauran fannoni waɗanda ke da wahalar samar da wutar lantarki. Hydrogen kore da hydrogen shuɗi sune manyan ƙarancin hydrocarbon, kuma mahimmancin hydrogen kore zai inganta tare da tsarin canza makamashi. Cinikin hydrogen ya haɗa da cinikin bututun ruwa na yanki don jigilar hydrogen mai tsabta da cinikin teku don abubuwan da aka samo daga hydrogen.
Rahoton ya yi hasashen cewa nan da shekarar 2030, a ƙarƙashin saurin sauyi da kuma yanayin rashin daidaito, ƙarancin buƙatar hydrocarbon zai kai tan miliyan 30/shekara da tan miliyan 50/shekara, bi da bi, tare da yawancin waɗannan ƙarancin hydrocarbons ana amfani da su azaman hanyoyin samar da makamashi da kuma masu rage masana'antu don maye gurbin iskar gas, hydrogen mai tushen kwal (wanda ake amfani da shi azaman kayan masana'antu don tacewa, samar da ammonia da methanol) da kwal. Sauran za a yi amfani da su wajen samar da sinadarai da siminti.
Nan da shekarar 2050, samar da ƙarfe zai yi amfani da kusan kashi 40% na jimillar ƙarancin buƙatar hydrocarbon a ɓangaren masana'antu, kuma a ƙarƙashin saurin sauyawa da yanayin rashin daidaito, ƙarancin hydrocarbons zai kai kimanin kashi 5% da 10% na jimillar amfani da makamashi, bi da bi.
Rahoton ya kuma yi hasashen cewa, a ƙarƙashin saurin sauyi da yanayin sifili, abubuwan da aka samo daga hydrogen za su kai kashi 10 cikin 100 da 30 cikin 100 na buƙatar makamashin jiragen sama da kashi 30 cikin 100 da 55 cikin 100 na buƙatar makamashin teku, bi da bi, nan da shekarar 2050, inda mafi yawan sauran za su je ga ɓangaren sufuri mai nauyi; Nan da shekarar 2050, jimlar ƙarancin hydrocarbons da abubuwan da aka samo daga hydrogen za su kai kashi 10 cikin 100 da 20% na jimillar amfani da makamashi a ɓangaren sufuri, bi da bi, a ƙarƙashin saurin sauyi da yanayin sifili.
A halin yanzu, farashin hydrogen mai launin shuɗi yawanci yana ƙasa da na hydrogen mai launin kore a yawancin sassan duniya, amma bambancin farashi zai ragu a hankali yayin da fasahar kera hydrogen mai launin kore ke ci gaba, ingancin samarwa yana ƙaruwa da farashin man fetur na gargajiya yana ƙaruwa, in ji rahoton. A ƙarƙashin saurin canji da yanayin rashin daidaito, rahoton ya yi hasashen cewa hydrogen mai launin kore zai kai kusan kashi 60 cikin 100 na jimlar ƙarancin hydrocarbon nan da shekarar 2030, wanda zai karu zuwa kashi 65 cikin 100 nan da shekarar 2050.
Rahoton ya kuma nuna cewa yadda ake cinikin hydrogen zai bambanta dangane da amfani da shi a ƙarshe. Ga aikace-aikacen da ke buƙatar sinadarin hydrogen mai tsabta (kamar hanyoyin dumama masana'antu masu zafi ko jigilar ababen hawa a hanya), ana iya shigo da buƙatar daga yankunan da suka dace ta hanyar bututun mai; Ga yankunan da ake buƙatar sinadarin hydrogen (kamar ammonia da methanol ga jiragen ruwa), farashin jigilar hydrogen ta hanyar amfani da hydrogen yana da ƙasa kaɗan kuma ana iya shigo da buƙatar daga ƙasashe mafi arha a duniya.
Misali, a Tarayyar Turai, rahoton ya yi hasashen cewa a karkashin saurin sauyi da yanayin rashin daidaito, Tarayyar Turai za ta samar da kusan kashi 70% na ƙarancin iskar gas ɗinta nan da shekarar 2030, wanda zai faɗi zuwa kashi 60% nan da shekarar 2050. Daga cikin ƙarancin iskar gas da ake shigowa da su daga ƙasashen waje, kusan kashi 50% na iskar hydrogen za a shigo da ita ta bututun mai daga Arewacin Afirka da sauran ƙasashen Turai (misali Norway, Birtaniya), sauran kashi 50% kuma za a shigo da su ta teku daga kasuwar duniya a cikin nau'in sinadarin hydrogen.
Lokacin Saƙo: Fabrairu-06-2023