Ku ya 30 Mutarama, British Petroleum (BP) yasohoye raporo ya 2023 yitwa “World Energy Outlook”, ishimangira ko ibikomoka kuri peteroli mu gihe gito ari ingenzi cyane mu mpinduka z’ingufu, ariko ibura ry’ingufu ku isi, imyuka ihumanya ikirere ikomeza kwiyongera n’ibindi bintu byitezwe ko bizakwihutisha ihindagurika ry’ibidukikije n’ihindagurika ry’ingufu nke zikomoka kuri karuboni, raporo yashyize ahagaragara icyerekezo kimwe cy’iterambere ry’ingufu ku isi, kandi iteganya ko iterambere ry’ingufu nke zikomoka kuri karuboni kugeza mu 2050.
Raporo igaragaza ko mu gihe gito, ibikomoka kuri peteroli bizagira uruhare runini mu ihinduka ry'ingufu, ariko ibura ry'ingufu ku isi, ukwiyongera guhoraho kw'ibyuka bihumanya ikirere hamwe n'ikirere kibi cyane bizihutisha ihinduka ry'ingufu ku isi ku bidukikije n'ihindagurika ry'ingufu nke zikomoka kuri karuboni. Ihinduka rinoze rigomba guhangana icyarimwe n'umutekano w'ingufu, ubushobozi bwo kuzigama no kuzigama; Ejo hazaza h'ingufu ku isi hazagaragaza ibintu bine by'ingenzi: uruhare rw'ingufu zikomoka kuri karuboni, iterambere ryihuse ry'ingufu zishobora kuvugururwa, urwego rw'amashanyarazi rwiyongera, no gukomeza kwiyongera kw'ikoreshwa ry'ingufu nke zikomoka kuri karuboni.
Raporo ivuga ko iterambere ry’ingufu mu mikorere y’ingufu kugeza mu 2050 rizaba rishingiye ku bintu bitatu: ihindagurika ryihuse, zeru n’ingufu nshya. Raporo igaragaza ko mu gihe cy’ihindagurika ryihuse, imyuka ihumanya ikirere ya karuboni yagabanukaho hafi 75%; Mu gihe cy’ihindagurika ry’ikirere, imyuka ihumanya ikirere ya karuboni izagabanukaho ibirenze 95; Mu gihe cy’ihindagurika rishya (rigaragaza ko imiterere rusange y’iterambere ry’ingufu ku isi mu myaka itanu ishize, harimo iterambere ry’ikoranabuhanga, kugabanya ikiguzi, nibindi, hamwe n’ubukana bwa politiki ku isi bizakomeza guhinduka mu myaka itanu kugeza kuri 30 iri imbere), imyuka ihumanya ikirere ku isi izazamuka cyane mu myaka ya 2020 kandi igabanye imyuka ihumanya ikirere ku isi ho 30% mu 2050 ugereranije no mu 2019.
Raporo ivuga ko hydrocarbon nkeya zigira uruhare runini mu ihindagurika ry’ingufu zikomoka kuri karubone nkeya, cyane cyane mu nganda, ubwikorezi n’izindi nzego zigoranye gukoresha amashanyarazi. Hydrogen y’icyatsi kibisi na hydrogen y’ubururu ni byo hydrocarbon nkeya cyane, kandi akamaro ka hydrogon y’icyatsi kibisi kazongerwa hamwe n’impinduka mu ngufu. Ubucuruzi bwa hydrogon burimo ubucuruzi bw’imiyoboro yo mu karere yo gutwara hydrogen nziza n’ubucuruzi bwo mu mazi ku bikomoka kuri hydrogen.
Raporo iteganya ko mu 2030, mu gihe cy’impinduka zihuta kandi zidafite ingaruka ku isoko, hazabaho toni miliyoni 30 z’ibikomoka kuri karubone (hydrocarbons) ku mwaka na toni miliyoni 50 ku mwaka, aho inyinshi muri izi karubone nke zikoreshwa nk’isoko y’ingufu n’ibikoresho bigabanya ingufu mu nganda kugira ngo zisimbuze gaze karemano, hydrogen ishingiye ku makara (ikoreshwa nk’ibikoresho fatizo by’inganda mu gutunganya, gukora ammonia na methanol) n’amakara. Ibisigaye bizakoreshwa mu buvuzi no mu gukora sima.
Mu 2050, icyuma kizakoresha hafi 40% by'ingufu nke zikenewe mu nganda, kandi mu gihe cy'impinduka zihuta kandi nta kibazo, hydrocarbon nke zizaba zigera kuri 5% na 10% by'ingufu zose zikoreshwa, uko bikurikirana.
Raporo kandi iteganya ko, mu gihe cy’impinduka zihuta n’izidafite ishingiro, ibikomoka kuri hydrogen bizaba 10% na 30% by’ingufu zikenewe mu ndege na 30% na 55% by’ingufu zikenewe mu mazi, mu 2050, ibisigaye byinshi bikazajya mu rwego rw’ubwikorezi bunini; Mu 2050, igiteranyo cy’ibikomoka kuri hydrocarbon nke na hydrogen bizaba 10% na 20% by’ingufu zose zikoreshwa mu rwego rw’ubwikorezi, mu gihe cy’impinduka zihuta n’izidafite ishingiro.
Raporo ivuga ko muri iki gihe, ikiguzi cya hydrogen y'ubururu gisanzwe kiri hasi ugereranyije n'icya hydrogen y'icyatsi mu bice byinshi by'isi, ariko itandukaniro ry'ibiciro rizagenda rigabanuka uko ikoranabuhanga mu gukora hydrogen y'icyatsi rigenda ritera imbere, umusaruro urushaho kwiyongera ndetse n'igiciro cy'ibikomoka kuri peteroli gakondo kikiyongera. Mu gihe cy'impinduka zihuta kandi zidafite ingaruka mbi, raporo iteganya ko hydrogen y'icyatsi izaba ifite hafi 60% by'ibikomoka kuri hydrocarbon nkeya mu 2030, igere kuri 65% mu 2050.
Raporo kandi igaragaza ko uburyo hydrogen icuruzwa buzatandukana bitewe n'ikoreshwa ryayo. Ku bijyanye n'ikoreshwa risaba hydrogen nziza (nk'uburyo bwo gushyushya mu nganda cyangwa gutwara imodoka zo mu muhanda), ubusabe bushobora gutumizwa mu turere dukenewe binyuze mu miyoboro; Ku turere dukeneye hydrogen (nka ammonia na methanol ku bwato), ikiguzi cyo gutwara hakoreshejwe hydrogen kiri hasi kandi ubusabe bushobora gutumizwa mu bihugu bihendutse cyane ku isi.
Urugero, mu Muryango w’Ubumwe bw’u Burayi, raporo iteganya ko mu gihe cy’impinduka zihuta kandi zigahinduka zeru, Umuryango w’Ubumwe bw’u Burayi uzatanga hafi 70% by’ingufu nke za hydrocarbon mu 2030, zikagabanuka zikagera kuri 60% mu 2050. Mu mvubura nke za hydrocarbon zitumizwa mu mahanga, hafi 50% bya hydrocarbon nziza zizatumizwa binyuze mu miyoboro iva muri Afurika y’Amajyaruguru n’ibindi bihugu by’i Burayi (urugero: Noruveje, Ubwongereza), naho izindi 50% zizatumizwa mu mazi ziturutse ku isoko mpuzamahanga mu buryo bw’imvange ya hydrocarbon.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Gashyantare-06-2023