Ku ya 30 Mutarama, peteroli yo mu Bwongereza (BP) yashyize ahagaragara raporo ya 2023 “World Energy Outlook”, ishimangira ko ibicanwa biva mu kirere mu gihe gito ari ngombwa cyane mu gihe cyo guhindura ingufu, ariko ikibazo cy’ibura ry’ingufu ku isi, ibyuka bihumanya ikirere bikomeje kwiyongera ndetse n’ibindi bintu biteganijwe ko byihutisha impinduka enye z’iterambere ry’ingufu ku isi, kandi bikavuga ko iterambere rya hydrocarubone rizagera kuri 2050.
Raporo yerekana ko mu gihe gito, ibicanwa biva mu kirere bizagira uruhare runini mu nzira yo guhindura ingufu, ariko ibura ry’ingufu ku isi, ubwiyongere bukabije bw’ibyuka bihumanya ikirere ndetse n’ibihe bikunze kubaho by’ikirere gikabije bizihutisha ingufu z’isi yose icyatsi kibisi na karuboni nkeya. Inzibacyuho inoze ikeneye icyarimwe gukemura ikibazo cyumutekano wingufu, ubushobozi kandi burambye; Iterambere ry’ingufu ku isi rizerekana inzira enye zingenzi: igabanuka ry’ingufu za hydrocarubone, iterambere ryihuse ry’ingufu zishobora kongera ingufu, kwiyongera kw’amashanyarazi, no gukomeza kwiyongera kw’ikoreshwa rya hydrocarubone.
Raporo ivuga ko ubwihindurize bwa sisitemu y’ingufu kugeza mu 2050 mu bihe bitatu: inzibacyuho yihuse, net zeru nimbaraga nshya. Raporo yerekana ko mu gihe cyihuta cy’inzibacyuho, ibyuka bihumanya ikirere byagabanukaho 75%; Muri net-zeru, ibyuka bihumanya ikirere bizagabanuka kurenga 95; Mu bihe bishya bigenda byiyongera (bivuze ko muri rusange iterambere ry’ingufu ku isi mu myaka itanu ishize, harimo iterambere ry’ikoranabuhanga, kugabanya ibiciro, n’ibindi, ndetse n’ubukomezi bwa politiki ku isi ntibizahinduka mu myaka itanu iri imbere)
Raporo ivuga ko hydrocarbone nkeya igira uruhare runini mu guhindura ingufu za karubone nkeya, cyane cyane mu nganda, ubwikorezi no mu zindi nzego zigoye amashanyarazi. Icyatsi kibisi na hydrogène yubururu ningenzi hydrocarubone yo hasi, kandi akamaro ka hydrogène yicyatsi kaziyongera hamwe nuburyo bwo guhindura ingufu. Ubucuruzi bwa hydrogène bukubiyemo ubucuruzi bwo mu karere bwo gutwara hydrogène nziza n’ubucuruzi bwo mu nyanja bukomoka kuri hydrogène.
Raporo ivuga ko mu 2030, mu gihe cy’inzibacyuho yihuse hamwe na zeru zeru, ingufu za hydrocarubone nkeya zizagera kuri toni miliyoni 30 / umwaka na toni miliyoni 50 ku mwaka, aho usanga amenshi muri ayo mavuta ya hydrocarbone akoreshwa nk'isoko ry’ingufu ndetse n’ibikoresho bigabanya inganda mu gusimbuza gaze karemano, hydrogène ishingiye ku makara (ikoreshwa nk'ibikoresho fatizo mu nganda mu gutunganya, gutanga amoni na metani) hamwe n'amakara. Ibisigaye bizakoreshwa mu miti no gukora sima.
Kugeza mu 2050, umusaruro w’ibyuma uzakoresha hafi 40% y’ibikenerwa na hydrocarubone nkeya mu rwego rw’inganda, kandi mu gihe cy’inzibacyuho yihuse hamwe na zero zero, hydrocarbone nkeya izagera kuri 5% na 10% by’ingufu zose zikoreshwa.
Raporo iteganya kandi ko, mu gihe cyihuta cyihuse hamwe na zeru zeru, ibikomoka kuri hydrogène bizajya bingana na 10 ku ijana na 30 ku ijana by’ingufu zikoreshwa mu ndege na 30 ku ijana na 55 ku ijana by’ingufu zikomoka ku nyanja, mu mwaka wa 2050, abasigaye benshi bakajya mu rwego rwo gutwara abantu n'ibintu mu mihanda iremereye; Kugeza mu 2050, igiteranyo cya hydrocarbone nkeya n’ibikomoka kuri hydrogène bizaba bingana na 10% na 20% by’ingufu zose zikoreshwa mu rwego rwo gutwara abantu, bitewe n’inzibacyuho yihuse hamwe na zero zero.
Raporo ivuga ko kuri ubu, igiciro cya hydrogène y'ubururu ubusanzwe kiri munsi ugereranije n'icya hydrogène y'icyatsi kibisi mu bice byinshi by'isi, ariko itandukaniro ry'ibiciro rizagenda rigabanuka buhoro buhoro uko ikoranabuhanga rya hydrogène ry’icyatsi ritera imbere, umusaruro ukiyongera ndetse n’igiciro cy’ibicanwa gakondo byiyongera. Mugihe cyihuta cyihuse hamwe na net-zeru, raporo ivuga ko hydrogène yicyatsi izaba hafi 60% ya hydrocarubone nkeya muri 2030, ikazamuka igera kuri 65% muri 2050.
Raporo yerekana kandi ko uburyo hydrogène icuruzwa bizatandukana bitewe n’imikoreshereze yanyuma. Kubisabwa bisaba hydrogène isukuye (nk'inganda zishyushya ubushyuhe bwo mu nganda cyangwa gutwara ibinyabiziga byo mu muhanda), icyifuzo gishobora gutumizwa mu turere bireba binyuze mu miyoboro; Kubice bikenewe ibikomoka kuri hydrogène (nka ammonia na methanol kumato), ikiguzi cyo gutwara ibicuruzwa biva muri hydrogène ni gito kandi icyifuzo gishobora gutumizwa mubihugu byinjiza amafaranga menshi kwisi yose.
Urugero, mu Muryango w’ubumwe bw’ibihugu by’Uburayi, raporo ivuga ko mu gihe cy’inzibacyuho yihuse na net-zero, Umuryango w’ubumwe bw’ibihugu by’Uburayi uzatanga umusaruro ugera kuri 70% ya hydrocarbone nkeya mu 2030, ukamanuka kugera kuri 60% mu 2050. Mu bicuruzwa bitumizwa mu mahanga biva mu mahanga, hafi 50% bya hydrogène nziza bizatumizwa mu miyoboro iva muri Afurika y’amajyaruguru no mu bindi bihugu by’Uburayi (urugero nka Noruveje, Ubwongereza), hamwe n’ibindi bikomoka kuri hydrogène bituruka mu nyanja ku isi.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Gashyantare-06-2023