Musi wa30 Ndira, British Petroleum (BP) yakaburitsa mushumo we2023 we "World Energy Outlook", ichisimbisa kuti mafuta efossil munguva pfupi anonyanya kukosha mukuchinja kwesimba, asi kushomeka kwesimba pasi rose, kuburitswa kwekabhoni kuri kuramba kuchiwedzera uye zvimwe zvinhu zvinotarisirwa kukurumidzisa kuchinja kwegreen ne low-carbon, mushumo wacho wakaburitsa mafambiro mana ekukura kwesimba pasi rose, uye wakafanotaura kukura kwehydrocarbon shoma kusvika muna 2050.
Mushumo wacho unoratidza kuti munguva pfupi, mafuta efossil achaita basa rakakosha mukuchinja kwesimba, asi kushomeka kwesimba pasi rose, kuwedzera kwemhepo inoburitsa kabhoni uye kuitika kwemamiriro ekunze akaipisisa kuchakurumidzisa shanduko yesimba repasi rose uye shanduko yekabhoni shoma. Kuchinja kwakanaka kunofanirwa kugadzirisa panguva imwe chete kuchengetedzwa kwesimba, kugona kutenga uye kuenderera mberi; Remangwana resimba repasi rose richaratidza maitiro mana makuru: kudzikira kwebasa resimba rehydrocarbon, kukura nekukurumidza kwesimba rinogona kuvandudzwa, kuwedzera kwesimba remagetsi, uye kuramba kuchiwedzera kwekushandiswa kwemahydrocarbon mashoma.
Mushumo uyu unofungidzira kuti shanduko yemagetsi ichaitika kusvika mugore ra2050 pasi pezviitiko zvitatu: kuchinja nekukurumidza, zero chaiyo uye simba idzva. Mushumo uyu unoratidza kuti pasi pemamiriro ekuchinja nekukurumidza, kuburitswa kwekabhoni kuchaderedzwa neinenge 75%; Mumamiriro ezvinhu e zero chaiyo, kuburitswa kwekabhoni kuchaderedzwa neinopfuura 95; Pasi pemamiriro ezvinhu matsva (anofungidzira kuti mamiriro ese ekuvandudzwa kwesimba repasi rose mumakore mashanu apfuura, kusanganisira kufambira mberi kwetekinoroji, kudzikiswa kwemitengo, nezvimwewo, uye kusimba kwemitemo yepasi rose zvicharamba zvisina kuchinja mumakore mashanu kusvika makumi matatu anotevera), kuburitswa kwekabhoni pasi rose kuchakwira zvakanyanya mumakore a2020 uye kunoderedza kuburitswa kwekabhoni pasi rose neinenge 30% panosvika 2050 zvichienzaniswa negore ra2019.
Mushumo wacho unoti mahydrocarbon akaderera ane basa guru mukuchinja kwesimba risingashandise kabhoni yakawanda, kunyanya mumaindasitiri, kutakura uye mamwe matunhu akaoma kushandisa magetsi. Hydrogen yegirini nehydrogen yebhuruu ndizvo zvinonyanya kuderedza kabhoni yakawanda, uye kukosha kwehydrogen yegirini kuchawedzerwa nekuchinja kwesimba. Kutengeserana kwehydrogen kunosanganisira kutengeserana kwemapaipi emunharaunda ekutakura hydrogen yakachena nekutengeserana kwegungwa kwezvinhu zvinobva muhydrogen.
Mushumo uyu unofanotaura kuti panosvika gore ra2030, pasi pekuchinja kukuru uye mamiriro ezvinhu asina kusimba, kudiwa kushoma kwemahydrocarbon kuchasvika matani mamiriyoni makumi matatu pagore uye matani mamiriyoni makumi mashanu pagore, zvichiteerana, mazhinji emahydrocarbon akaderera aya achishandiswa semasimba uye sezvinhu zvinoderedza simba mumaindasitiri kutsiva gasi rechisikigo, hydrogen inobva mumalahle (inoshandiswa sezvinhu zvemaindasitiri zvekuchenesa, kugadzira ammonia nemethanol) uye marasha. Zvimwe zvichashandiswa mukugadzira makemikari nesimende.
Panosvika gore ra2050, kugadzirwa kwesimbi kuchashandisa inenge 40% yehuwandu hwemahydrocarbon akaderera muindasitiri, uye pasi pekuchinja kukuru uye mamiriro ezvinhu asina zero, mahydrocarbon akaderera achave anenge 5% ne10% yekushandiswa kwesimba rese, zvichiteerana.
Mushumo uyu unofanotaurawo kuti, pasi pekuchinja kwakakurumidza uye mamiriro e zero, hydrogen derivatives ichave chikamu che10 muzana ne30 muzana yesimba rendege uye chikamu che30 muzana ne55 muzana yesimba reMarine, zvichiteerana, panosvika gore ra2050, chikamu chikuru chezvimwe zvichaenda kuchikamu chekutakura zvinhu mumigwagwa; Panosvika gore ra2050, huwandu hwehydrocarbon shoma uye hydrogen derivatives huchava chikamu che10% ne20% yesimba rese rinoshandiswa muchikamu chekutakura, zvichiteerana, pasi pemamiriro ekuchinja kwakakurumidza uye mamiriro e zero.
Parizvino, mutengo wehydrogen yebhuruu unowanzova wakaderera pane wehydrogen yegirini munzvimbo zhinji dzepasi, asi musiyano wemutengo uchadzikira zvishoma nezvishoma sezvo tekinoroji yekugadzira hydrogen yegirini ichifambira mberi, kushanda zvakanaka kwekugadzira kuchiwedzera uye mutengo wemafuta ekare uchiwedzera, mushumo wakadaro. Pasi pekuchinja kwakakurumidza uye mamiriro ezvinhu asina zero, mushumo unofanotaura kuti hydrogen yegirini ichaita inenge 60 muzana yehydrocarbon yepasi rose panosvika 2030, ichikwira kusvika 65 muzana panosvika 2050.
Mushumo uyu unoratidzawo kuti nzira inotengeswa nayo hydrogen inosiyana zvichienderana nekushandiswa kwayo kwekupedzisira. Pamashandisirwo anoda hydrogen chaiyo (senge nzira dzekupisa dzinopisa zvakanyanya mumaindasitiri kana kutakurwa kwemotokari dzemumugwagwa), kudiwa kunogona kutorwa kubva kunzvimbo dzakakodzera kuburikidza nemapaipi; Kunzvimbo dzinodiwa hydrogen derivatives (senge ammonia ne methanol yezvikepe), mutengo wekufambisa kuburikidza nehydrogen derivatives wakaderera uye kudiwa kunogona kutorwa kubva kunyika dzine mari yakawanda pasi rese.
Semuenzaniso, muEuropean Union, mushumo uyu unofanotaura kuti pasi pekuchinja kukuru uye mamiriro ezvinhu asina kusimba, EU ichagadzira inenge 70% yemahydrocarbon ayo mashoma panosvika 2030, ichidonha kusvika 60% panosvika 2050. Pamafuta asina kusimba anotengeswa kunze kwenyika, inenge 50 muzana yehydrogen yakachena ichaunzwa kuburikidza nemapaipi kubva kuNorth Africa nedzimwe nyika dzeEurope (semuenzaniso Norway, UK), uye imwe 50 muzana ichaunzwa negungwa kubva kumusika wepasi rose muchimiro chehydrogen derivatives.
Nguva yekutumira: Kukadzi-06-2023