I te 30 o Hānuere, i tukuna e British Petroleum (BP) te pūrongo "World Energy Outlook" mō te tau 2023, me te whakanui ake i te hiranga o ngā wahie pūngoi mō te wā poto i roto i te whakawhiti pūngao, engari ko te korenga o te tuku pūngao o te ao, kei te piki haere tonu ngā tukunga waro, ā, e matapaetia ana ko ētahi atu āhuatanga ka tere ake te whakawhiti matomato me te waro-iti. I whakatakotohia e te pūrongo ētahi ia o te whanaketanga pūngao o te ao, me te matapae i te whanaketanga waro-iti tae noa ki te tau 2050.
E tohu ana te pūrongo, mō te wā poto, ka whai wāhi nui ngā wahie pūmua ki te tukanga whakawhiti pūngao, engari ko te korenga o te pūngao o te ao, te pikinga tonu o ngā tukunga waro me te auau o te huarere kino ka tere ake te whakawhiti matomato me te whakawhiti waro-iti o te pūngao o te ao. Me aro tahi te whakawhiti whai hua ki te haumarutanga pūngao, te utu tika me te pumau; Ka whakaatuhia e te heke mai o te pūngao o te ao e whā ngā ia o ngā whanaketanga nui: te hekenga o te tūranga o te pūngao warowaihā, te tere o te whanaketanga o te pūngao whakahou, te pikinga o te hiko, me te tipu tonu o te whakamahinga warowaihā iti.
E whakaarohia ana e te pūrongo te whanaketanga o ngā pūnaha pūngao tae noa ki te tau 2050 i raro i ngā āhuatanga e toru: te whakawhiti tere, te kore kupenga me te hiko hou. E kī ana te pūrongo, i raro i te āhuatanga whakawhiti tere, ka whakaitihia ngā tukunga waro mā te 75% pea; I roto i te āhuatanga kore kupenga, ka whakaitihia ngā tukunga waro mā te neke atu i te 95; I raro i te āhuatanga hihiri hou (e whakaaro ana ko te āhua whānui o te whanaketanga pūngao o te ao i ngā tau e rima kua hipa, tae atu ki te ahunga whakamua hangarau, te whakaiti utu, me ētahi atu, me te kaha o ngā kaupapa here o te ao ka noho tonu i roto i ngā tau e rima ki te 30 e whai ake nei), ka eke te taumata o ngā tukunga waro o te ao ki te tihi i ngā tau 2020, ā, ka whakaitihia ngā tukunga waro o te ao mā te 30% pea i te tau 2050 ki te whakataurite ki te tau 2019.
E kī ana te pūrongo he mahi nui tā ngā warowaihā iti i roto i te whakawhiti pūngao waro-iti, inā koa i roto i ngā ahumahi, te kawe waka me ētahi atu rāngai he uaua ki te whakamahi hiko. Ko te hauwai matomato me te hauwai kikorangi ngā warowaihā iti matua, ā, ka whakanuia te hiranga o te hauwai matomato i roto i te tukanga whakawhiti pūngao. Kei roto i te hokohoko hauwai te hokohoko paipa ā-rohe mō te kawe hauwai parakore me te hokohoko moana mō ngā hua hauwai.
E matapaetia ana e te pūrongo, i raro i ngā āhuatanga whakawhiti tere me te kore kupenga, ka eke te tono iti o te warowaihā ki te 30 miriona tana/tau me te 50 miriona tana/tau, ia, ā, ko te nuinga o ēnei warowaihā iti ka whakamahia hei pūtake pūngao me ngā kaihoko whakaiti ahumahi hei whakakapi i te hau māori, te hauwai waro (e whakamahia ana hei rauemi mata ahumahi mō te whakamahine, te whakaputa haukini me te methanol) me te waro. Ko te toenga ka whakamahia ki ngā matū me te hanga sima.
Hei te tau 2050, ka whakamahia e te hanga maitai te 40% o te katoa o te tono warowaihā iti i roto i te rāngai ahumahi, ā, i raro i ngā horopaki whakawhiti tere me te kore kupenga, ka whakamahia e ngā warowaihā iti te 5% me te 10% o te katoa o te whakamahinga pūngao.
E matapaetia ana hoki e te pūrongo, i raro i ngā āhuatanga whakawhiti tere me te kore kupenga, ka 10 ōrau me te 30 ōrau o te tono pūngao rererangi me te 30 ōrau me te 55 ōrau o te tono pūngao moana te utu mō ngā matū hauwai, ia, i te tau 2050, ā, ko te nuinga o te toenga ka haere ki te rāngai kawe waka taumaha; i te tau 2050, ko te tapeke o ngā hauwai iti me ngā matū hauwai ka 10% me te 20% o te whakamahinga pūngao katoa i roto i te rāngai kawe waka, ia, i raro i ngā āhuatanga whakawhiti tere me te kore kupenga.
I tēnei wā, he iti iho te utu o te hauwai kikorangi i te hauwai matomato i te nuinga o ngā wāhi o te ao, engari ka āta whakawhāitihia te rerekētanga utu i te whanaketanga o te hangarau hanga hauwai matomato, te pikinga ake o te pai o te whakaputa me te pikinga ake o te utu o ngā wahie pūmua tuku iho, e ai ki te pūrongo. I raro i te huringa tere me te kore-kore, e matapaetia ana e te pūrongo ka tata ki te 60 ōrau o te katoa o te hauwai iti i te tau 2030, ka piki ki te 65 ōrau i te tau 2050.
E kī ana hoki te pūrongo ka rerekē te huarahi hokohoko hauwai i runga i te whakamahinga whakamutunga. Mō ngā tono e hiahia ana ki te hauwai parakore (pēnei i ngā tukanga whakamahana pāmahana teitei ahumahi, i te kawe waka rori rānei), ka taea te kawemai i te tono mai i ngā rohe e tika ana mā roto i ngā paipa; Mō ngā rohe e hiahiatia ana ngā matū hauwai (pēnei i te haukini me te methanol mō ngā kaipuke), he iti noa te utu o te kawe mā roto i ngā matū hauwai, ā, ka taea te kawemai i te tono mai i ngā whenua tino whai hua o te ao.
Hei tauira, i roto i te Kotahitanga o Ūropi, e matapaetia ana e te pūrongo i raro i te huringa tere me te kore-pūtea, ka whakaputa te EU i te 70% o ana warowaihā iti i te tau 2030, ka heke ki te 60% i te tau 2050. O ngā kawemai warowaihā iti, tata ki te 50 ōrau o te hauwai parakore ka kawemai mā roto i ngā paipa mai i Āwherika ki te Raki me ētahi atu whenua Ūropi (hei tauira, ko Nōwei, te UK), ā, ko te toenga 50 ōrau ka kawemai mā te moana mai i te mākete o te ao i roto i te ahua o ngā matū hauwai.
Wā tuku: Hui-tanguru-06-2023