Ngomhlaka-30 Januwari, iBritish Petroleum (BP) yakhipha umbiko we-“World Energy Outlook” ka-2023, igcizelela ukuthi uphethiloli wezinto ezisetshenziswayo esikhathini esifushane ubaluleke kakhulu ekushintsheni kwamandla, kodwa ukushoda kwamandla emhlabeni wonke, ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni kuyaqhubeka nokwanda kanye nezinye izinto kulindeleke ukuthi zisheshise ukuguquka okuluhlaza kanye nokwe-carbon ephansi, umbiko uveze izindlela ezine zokuthuthukiswa kwamandla emhlabeni wonke, futhi ubikezela intuthuko ye-hydrocarbon ephansi kuya ku-2050.
Umbiko uveza ukuthi esikhathini esifushane, amafutha asetshenziswayo azodlala indima ebalulekile enqubweni yokuguquka kwamandla, kodwa ukushoda kwamandla emhlabeni wonke, ukwanda okuqhubekayo kokukhishwa kwekhabhoni kanye nokuvela njalo kwesimo sezulu esibi kuzosheshisa ukuguquka kwamandla omhlaba wonke okuluhlaza kanye nokushintsha kwekhabhoni ephansi. Ushintsho olusebenzayo ludinga ukubhekana nokuphepha kwamandla ngasikhathi sinye, ukungabizi kanye nokusimama; Ikusasa lamandla omhlaba wonke lizobonisa izitayela ezine ezinkulu: indima enciphayo yamandla e-hydrocarbon, intuthuko esheshayo yamandla avuselelekayo, izinga elikhulayo lokufakwa kukagesi, kanye nokukhula okuqhubekayo kokusetshenziswa kwe-hydrocarbon ephansi.
Umbiko ucabanga ukuthi ukuvela kwezinhlelo zamandla kuze kube ngu-2050 kuzokwenzeka ngaphansi kwezimo ezintathu: ukuguquka okusheshayo, i-net zero kanye namandla amasha. Umbiko uphakamisa ukuthi ngaphansi kwesimo sokuguquka okusheshayo, ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni kuzoncishiswa cishe ngo-75%; Esimweni se-net zero, ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni kuzoncishiswa ngaphezu kuka-95; Ngaphansi kwesimo esisha esiguquguqukayo (esicabanga ukuthi isimo sonke sokuthuthukiswa kwamandla emhlabeni eminyakeni emihlanu edlule, okuhlanganisa intuthuko yezobuchwepheshe, ukunciphisa izindleko, njll., kanye nokuqina kwenqubomgomo yomhlaba wonke kuzohlala kungashintshi eminyakeni emihlanu kuya kwengu-30 ezayo), ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni emhlabeni wonke kuzofinyelela esicongweni ngawo-2020 futhi kunciphise ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni emhlabeni wonke cishe ngo-30% ngo-2050 uma kuqhathaniswa no-2019.
Umbiko uphikisana ngokuthi ama-hydrocarbon aphansi adlala indima ebalulekile ekushintsheni kwamandla anekhabhoni ephansi, ikakhulukazi ezimbonini, ezokuthutha kanye neminye imikhakha okunzima ukuyifakela ugesi. I-hydrogen eluhlaza kanye ne-hydrogen eluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka yizona hydrocarbon eziphansi kakhulu, futhi ukubaluleka kwe-hydrogen eluhlaza kuzothuthukiswa ngenqubo yokuguqulwa kwamandla. Ukuhweba nge-hydrogen kuhlanganisa ukuhweba ngepayipi lesifunda lokuthutha i-hydrogen emsulwa kanye nokuhweba ngolwandle ngezinto eziphuma ku-hydrogen.
Umbiko ubikezela ukuthi ngo-2030, ngaphansi koshintsho olusheshayo kanye nezimo ze-net zero, isidingo esiphansi sama-hydrocarbon sizofinyelela amathani ayizigidi ezingu-30 ngonyaka kanye namathani ayizigidi ezingu-50 ngonyaka, ngokulandelana, kanti iningi lala ma-hydrocarbon aphansi asetshenziswa njengemithombo yamandla kanye nama-ejenti okunciphisa izimboni ukuze athathe indawo yegesi yemvelo, i-hydrogen esekelwe emalahleni (esetshenziswa njengezinto zokusetshenziswa zezimboni zokucwenga, ukukhiqiza i-ammonia kanye ne-methanol) kanye namalahle. Okunye kuzosetshenziswa kumakhemikhali kanye nokukhiqizwa kwesimende.
Ngo-2050, ukukhiqizwa kwensimbi kuzosebenzisa cishe u-40% wesidingo esiphansi sama-hydrocarbon embonini yezimboni, futhi ngaphansi koshintsho olusheshayo kanye nezimo ze-zero, ama-hydrocarbon aphansi azobalelwa cishe ku-5% no-10% wokusetshenziswa kwamandla okuphelele, ngokulandelana.
Lo mbiko uphinde ubikezele ukuthi, ngaphansi kwezimo zokuguquka okusheshayo kanye nezimo ze-zero, i-hydrogen derivatives izobalelwa ku-10% kanye no-30% wesidingo samandla ezindiza kanye no-30% kanye no-55% wesidingo samandla asemanzini, ngokulandelana, ngo-2050, kanti iningi lazo zonke ezinye lizoya emkhakheni wezokuthutha osindayo; Ngo-2050, isamba sama-hydrocarbon aphansi kanye ne-hydrogen derivatives sizobalelwa ku-10% kanye no-20% wokusetshenziswa kwamandla okuphelele emkhakheni wezokuthutha, ngokulandelana, ngaphansi kwezimo zokuguquka okusheshayo kanye nezimo ze-zero.
Njengamanje, izindleko ze-hydrogen eluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka zivame ukuba ngaphansi kuneze-hydrogen eluhlaza ezingxenyeni eziningi zomhlaba, kodwa umehluko wezindleko uzoncipha kancane kancane njengoba ubuchwepheshe bokukhiqiza i-hydrogen eluhlaza buthuthuka, ukusebenza kahle kokukhiqiza kuyanda kanye nentengo yamafutha endabuko akhuphukayo, kusho umbiko. Ngaphansi koshintsho olusheshayo kanye nesimo se-net-zero, umbiko ubikezela ukuthi i-hydrogen eluhlaza izobalelwa cishe kumaphesenti angama-60 e-hydrocarbon ephansi iyonke ngo-2030, ikhuphuke ibe ngamaphesenti angama-65 ngo-2050.
Lo mbiko uphinde uphakamise ukuthi indlela i-hydrogen ehweba ngayo izohluka kuye ngokusetshenziswa kwayo kokugcina. Ngezicelo ezidinga i-hydrogen emsulwa (njengezinqubo zokushisa eziphezulu zezimboni noma ukuthuthwa kwezimoto zomgwaqo), isidingo singangeniswa ezindaweni ezifanele ngamapayipi; Ezindaweni lapho kudingeka khona izinto eziphuma ku-hydrogen (njenge-ammonia ne-methanol yemikhumbi), izindleko zokuhamba ngezinto eziphuma ku-hydrogen ziphansi kakhulu futhi isidingo singangeniswa emazweni anezindleko eziningi emhlabeni jikelele.
Isibonelo, e-European Union, umbiko ubikezela ukuthi ngaphansi koshintsho olusheshayo kanye nesimo se-net-zero, i-EU izokhiqiza cishe ama-70% ama-hydrocarbon ayo aphansi ngo-2030, ehle abe ngama-60% ngo-2050. Ema-hydrocarbon aphansi angeniswayo, cishe amaphesenti angama-50 e-hydrogen emsulwa azongeniswa ngamapayipi avela eNyakatho Afrika nakwamanye amazwe aseYurophu (isib. iNorway, i-UK), kanti amanye amaphesenti angama-50 azongeniswa olwandle evela emakethe yomhlaba wonke ngesimo se-hydrogen derivatives.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Feb-06-2023