NgoJanuwari 30, iBritish Petroleum (BP) yakhipha umbiko ka-2023 othi “World Energy Outlook”, igcizelela ukuthi izibaso ezimbiwa phansi esikhathini esifushane zibaluleke kakhulu ekushintsheni kukagesi, kodwa ukushoda kwamandla omhlaba wonke, ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni kuyaqhubeka ukwanda kanye nezinye izici kulindeleke ukuthi zisheshise uguquko lwekhabhoni eluhlaza kanye nekhabhoni ephansi, lo mbiko ubeke phambili izitayela ezine zokuthuthukiswa kwamandla kagesi emhlabeni jikelele, kanye ne-hydrocarbon.
Umbiko uveza ukuthi esikhathini esifushane, izibaseli ezimbiwa phansi zizodlala indima ebalulekile ohlelweni lokushintshwa kwamandla, kodwa ukushoda kwamandla emhlabeni wonke, ukwanda okuqhubekayo kokukhishwa kwekhabhoni kanye nokuvela njalo kwesimo sezulu esibi kuzosheshisa uguquko lwamandla omhlaba aluhlaza kanye nekhabhoni ephansi. Uguquko olusebenzayo ludinga kanyekanye ukubhekana nokuvikeleka kwamandla, ukufinyeleleka kanye nokusimama; Ikusasa lamandla emhlabeni wonke lizokhombisa izitayela ezine ezinkulu: ukwehla kweqhaza lamandla e-hydrocarbon, ukuthuthukiswa okusheshayo kwamandla avuselelekayo, izinga elikhulayo lokufakwa kukagesi, kanye nokukhula okuqhubekayo kokusetshenziswa kwe-hydrocarbon ephansi.
Umbiko uthatha ukuvela kwezinhlelo zamandla ngo-2050 ngaphansi kwezimo ezintathu: uguquko olusheshisiwe, i-net zero namandla amasha. Umbiko uphakamisa ukuthi ngaphansi kwesimo soguquko esisheshisiwe, ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni kuzoncishiswa cishe ngama-75%; Esimeni se-net-zero, ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni kuzoncishiswa ngaphezu kwama-95; Ngaphansi kwesimo esisha esiguqukayo (esithatha ukuthi sonke isimo sokuthuthukiswa kwamandla emhlabeni wonke eminyakeni emihlanu edlule, okuhlanganisa inqubekelaphambili yezobuchwepheshe, ukunciphisa izindleko, njll., kanye nokuqina kwenqubomgomo yomhlaba kuzohlala kungashintshile eminyakeni emihlanu ukuya kwengama-30 ezayo), ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni emhlabeni wonke kuzokhuphuka kakhulu ngeminyaka yawo-2020 futhi kunciphise ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni yomhlaba wonke cishe ngo-2050% uma kuqhathaniswa no-20509.
Umbiko uthi ama-hydrocarbon aphansi adlala indima ebalulekile ekushintsheni kwamandla ekhabhoni ephansi, ikakhulukazi ezimbonini, ezokuthutha kanye neminye imikhakha okunzima ukuyifakela ugesi. I-hydrogen eluhlaza kanye ne-hydrogen eluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka yi-hydrocarbon ephansi eyinhloko, futhi ukubaluleka kwe-hydrogen eluhlaza kuzothuthukiswa ngenqubo yokuguqulwa kwamandla. Ukuhweba nge-hydrogen kubandakanya ukuhweba ngamapayipi esifunda ukuze kuthuthwe i-hydrogen emsulwa kanye nokuhweba olwandle kokuphuma kwe-hydrogen.
Umbiko ubikezela ukuthi ngo-2030, ngaphansi koguquko olusheshayo kanye nezimo ezingabizi, isidingo esiphansi se-hydrocarbon sizofinyelela amathani ayizigidi ezingu-30 ngonyaka kanye namathani ayizigidi ezingu-50 ngonyaka, ngokulandelana, namaningi alawa ma-hydrocarbon aphansi asetshenziswa njengemithombo yamandla kanye nama-ejenti anciphisa izimboni ukuze athathe indawo yegesi yemvelo, i-hydrogen esekelwe emalahleni njenge-ammonicing yezimboni, i-hydrogen esetshenziselwa ukukhiqizwa kabusha. methanol) namalahle. Okusele kuzosetshenziswa ekukhiqizeni amakhemikhali nasekukhiqizeni usimende.
Ngonyaka wezi-2050, ukukhiqizwa kwensimbi kuzosebenzisa cishe amaphesenti angama-40 engqikithi yesidingo se-hydrocarbon ephansi emkhakheni wezimboni, futhi ngaphansi kwezimo ezisheshisiwe kanye nezimo zero, ama-hydrocarbon aphansi azothatha cishe u-5% kanye no-10% wawo wonke amandla okusetshenziswa, ngokulandelana.
Umbiko uphinde ubikezele ukuthi, ngaphansi koguquko olusheshayo kanye nezimo ze-net zero, okuphuma ku-hydrogen kuzoba ngamaphesenti angu-10 kanye namaphesenti angu-30 esidingo samandla endiza kanye namaphesenti angu-30 kanye namaphesenti angu-55 esidingo samandla olwandle, ngokulandelana, ngo-2050, kanti ingxenye enkulu yezokuthutha emgwaqeni iya engxenyeni enkulu yezokuthutha; Ngo-2050, isamba sama-hydrocarbon aphansi kanye nokuphuma kwe-hydrogen sizobalelwa ku-10% kanye no-20% wengqikithi yokusetshenziswa kwamandla emkhakheni wezokuthutha, ngokulandelana, ngaphansi koguquko olusheshayo kanye nezimo ze-net zero.
Njengamanje, izindleko ze-hydrogen eluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka ngokuvamile ziphansi kune-hydrogen eluhlaza ezingxenyeni eziningi zomhlaba, kodwa umehluko wezindleko uzoncipha kancane kancane njengoba ubuchwepheshe bokukhiqiza i-hydrogen eluhlaza buthuthuka, ukusebenza kahle kokukhiqiza kukhuphuka kanye nentengo yamafutha emvelo yendabuko ikhuphuka, kusho umbiko. Ngaphansi kwenguquko esheshisiwe kanye nesimo se-net-zero, umbiko ubikezela ukuthi i-hydrogen eluhlaza izobalelwa cishe ngamaphesenti angama-60 engqikithi ye-hydrocarbon ephansi ngo-2030, ikhuphuke iye kumaphesenti angama-65 ngo-2050.
Umbiko uphinde uphakamise ukuthi indlela i-hydrogen edayiswa ngayo izohluka kuye ngokusetshenziswa kokugcina. Ngezinhlelo zokusebenza ezidinga i-hydrogen emsulwa (njengezinqubo zokushisisa izinga lokushisa eliphezulu kwezimboni noma ezokuthutha ngemoto yomgwaqo), isidingo singangeniswa sisuka ezindaweni ezifanele ngamapayipi; Ezindaweni lapho kudingeka khona okuphuma ku-hydrogen (njenge-ammonia ne-methanol emikhunjini), izindleko zokuthutha ngokuphuma kwe-hydrogen ziphansi uma kuqhathaniswa futhi isidingo singangeniswa emazweni athuthuke kakhulu emhlabeni jikelele.
E-European Union, isibonelo, umbiko ubikezela ukuthi ngaphansi kwenguquko esheshayo kanye nesimo se-net-zero, i-EU izokhiqiza cishe u-70% wama-hydrocarbon ayo aphansi ngo-2030, wehla ku-60% ngo-2050. Amaphesenti angu-50 azongeniswa ngolwandle emakethe yomhlaba wonke ngendlela ye-hydrogen derivatives.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Feb-06-2023