Thaum Lub Ib Hlis 30, British Petroleum (BP) tau tshaj tawm daim ntawv qhia xyoo 2023 "World Energy Outlook", hais tias cov roj fossil hauv lub sijhawm luv luv yog qhov tseem ceeb dua hauv kev hloov pauv zog, tab sis kev tsis txaus ntawm lub zog thoob ntiaj teb, cov pa roj carbon txuas ntxiv nce ntxiv thiab lwm yam yuav tsum ua kom muaj kev hloov pauv ntsuab thiab qis carbon, daim ntawv qhia tau muab plaub qhov sib txawv ntawm kev txhim kho zog thoob ntiaj teb, thiab kwv yees kev txhim kho hydrocarbon qis rau xyoo 2050.
Daim ntawv tshaj tawm qhia tias nyob rau lub sijhawm luv luv, cov roj fossil yuav ua lub luag haujlwm tseem ceeb hauv cov txheej txheem hloov pauv zog, tab sis kev tsis txaus zog thoob ntiaj teb, kev nce ntxiv ntawm cov pa roj carbon thiab qhov tshwm sim ntawm huab cua hnyav heev yuav ua rau lub zog ntsuab thoob ntiaj teb thiab kev hloov pauv carbon tsawg dua. Kev hloov pauv zoo yuav tsum tau hais txog kev ruaj ntseg zog, kev them taus thiab kev ruaj khov; Lub neej yav tom ntej ntawm lub zog thoob ntiaj teb yuav qhia plaub qhov tseem ceeb: lub luag haujlwm poob qis ntawm lub zog hydrocarbon, kev txhim kho sai ntawm lub zog rov ua dua tshiab, qib kev siv hluav taws xob ntau ntxiv, thiab kev loj hlob ntawm kev siv hydrocarbon tsawg.
Daim ntawv tshaj tawm xav tias kev hloov pauv ntawm cov txheej txheem zog txog xyoo 2050 nyob rau hauv peb qhov xwm txheej: kev hloov pauv sai, xoom net thiab lub zog tshiab. Daim ntawv tshaj tawm qhia tias nyob rau hauv qhov xwm txheej hloov pauv sai, cov pa roj carbon yuav raug txo kom txog li 75%; Hauv qhov xwm txheej xoom net, cov pa roj carbon yuav raug txo kom ntau dua 95; Nyob rau hauv qhov xwm txheej tshiab dynamic (uas xav tias qhov xwm txheej tag nrho ntawm kev txhim kho lub zog thoob ntiaj teb hauv tsib xyoos dhau los, suav nrog kev nce qib hauv kev siv tshuab, kev txo nqi, thiab lwm yam, thiab kev siv zog ntawm txoj cai thoob ntiaj teb yuav tsis hloov pauv hauv tsib txog 30 xyoo tom ntej), cov pa roj carbon thoob ntiaj teb yuav nce siab tshaj plaws hauv xyoo 2020s thiab txo cov pa roj carbon thoob ntiaj teb los ntawm kwv yees li 30% los ntawm xyoo 2050 piv rau xyoo 2019.
Daim ntawv tshaj tawm sib cav hais tias cov hydrocarbons qis ua lub luag haujlwm tseem ceeb hauv kev hloov pauv lub zog qis-carbon, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog hauv kev lag luam, kev thauj mus los thiab lwm yam uas nyuaj rau hluav taws xob. Hydrogen ntsuab thiab hydrogen xiav yog cov hydrocarbon qis tseem ceeb, thiab qhov tseem ceeb ntawm hydrogen ntsuab yuav raug txhim kho nrog cov txheej txheem ntawm kev hloov pauv lub zog. Kev lag luam Hydrogen suav nrog kev lag luam hauv cheeb tsam rau kev thauj cov hydrogen ntshiab thiab kev lag luam maritime rau cov hydrogen derivatives.
Daim ntawv tshaj tawm kwv yees tias txog xyoo 2030, nyob rau hauv qhov kev hloov pauv sai thiab cov xwm txheej xoom net, qhov kev thov hydrocarbon qis yuav ncav cuag 30 lab tons / xyoo thiab 50 lab tons / xyoo, feem, nrog rau feem ntau ntawm cov hydrocarbons qis no raug siv los ua cov chaw muab hluav taws xob thiab cov neeg sawv cev txo qis kev lag luam los hloov cov roj av, cov thee-based hydrogen (siv ua cov khoom siv raw rau kev ua kom huv, tsim ammonia thiab methanol) thiab thee. Tus so yuav raug siv rau hauv cov tshuaj lom neeg thiab cov cement tsim.
Txog xyoo 2050, kev tsim hlau yuav siv li ntawm 40% ntawm tag nrho cov kev xav tau hydrocarbon qis hauv kev lag luam, thiab nyob rau hauv qhov kev hloov pauv sai thiab cov xwm txheej xoom, cov hydrocarbons qis yuav suav txog li 5% thiab 10% ntawm tag nrho cov kev siv zog, raws li.
Daim ntawv tshaj tawm kuj kwv yees tias, nyob rau hauv qhov kev hloov pauv sai thiab qhov xwm txheej xoom, cov hydrogen derivatives yuav suav txog 10 feem pua thiab 30 feem pua ntawm kev xav tau lub zog hauv kev tsav dav hlau thiab 30 feem pua thiab 55 feem pua ntawm kev xav tau lub zog hauv dej hiav txwv, raws li, txog xyoo 2050, nrog rau feem ntau ntawm cov seem mus rau kev thauj mus los ntawm txoj kev hnyav; Txog xyoo 2050, qhov sib npaug ntawm cov hydrocarbons qis thiab cov hydrogen derivatives yuav suav txog 10% thiab 20% ntawm tag nrho cov kev siv zog hauv kev thauj mus los, raws li, nyob rau hauv qhov kev hloov pauv sai thiab qhov xwm txheej xoom.
Tam sim no, tus nqi ntawm cov hydrogen xiav feem ntau qis dua li cov hydrogen ntsuab hauv feem ntau ntawm lub ntiaj teb, tab sis qhov sib txawv ntawm tus nqi yuav maj mam nqaim zuj zus thaum cov thev naus laus zis tsim cov hydrogen ntsuab nce qib, kev ua haujlwm zoo ntawm kev tsim khoom nce ntxiv thiab tus nqi ntawm cov roj fossil ib txwm nce ntxiv, daim ntawv tshaj tawm tau hais. Nyob rau hauv qhov kev hloov pauv sai thiab qhov xwm txheej net-xoom, daim ntawv tshaj tawm kwv yees tias cov hydrogen ntsuab yuav suav txog li 60 feem pua ntawm tag nrho cov hydrocarbon qis los ntawm 2030, nce mus txog 65 feem pua los ntawm 2050.
Daim ntawv tshaj tawm kuj qhia tias txoj kev uas hydrogen raug pauv yuav txawv nyob ntawm qhov siv kawg. Rau cov ntawv thov uas xav tau hydrogen ntshiab (xws li cov txheej txheem cua sov kub siab lossis kev thauj mus los ntawm txoj kev), qhov kev thov tuaj yeem xa tuaj ntawm cov cheeb tsam cuam tshuam los ntawm cov kav dej; Rau cov cheeb tsam uas xav tau hydrogen derivatives (xws li ammonia thiab methanol rau nkoj), tus nqi thauj mus los ntawm hydrogen derivatives yog qis heev thiab qhov kev thov tuaj yeem xa tuaj ntawm cov teb chaws uas muaj nqi zoo tshaj plaws thoob ntiaj teb.
Piv txwv li, hauv European Union, daim ntawv tshaj tawm kwv yees tias nyob rau hauv qhov kev hloov pauv sai thiab qhov xwm txheej net-zero, EU yuav tsim tawm txog li 70% ntawm nws cov hydrocarbons qis los ntawm xyoo 2030, poob rau 60% los ntawm xyoo 2050. Ntawm cov khoom xa tuaj hydrocarbon qis, kwv yees li 50 feem pua ntawm hydrogen ntshiab yuav raug xa tuaj los ntawm cov kav dej los ntawm North Africa thiab lwm lub tebchaws European (piv txwv li Norway, UK), thiab lwm 50 feem pua yuav raug xa tuaj los ntawm hiav txwv los ntawm kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb hauv daim ntawv ntawm hydrogen derivatives.
Lub sijhawm tshaj tawm: Lub Ob Hlis-06-2023