Ngomhla wama-30 kweyoMqungu, iBritish Petroleum (BP) yakhupha ingxelo ethi “World Energy Outlook” ka-2023, igxininisa ukuba amafutha efosili kwixesha elifutshane abaluleke ngakumbi kutshintsho lwamandla, kodwa ukunqongophala kwamandla kwihlabathi liphela, ukukhutshwa kwekhabhoni kuyaqhubeka nokwanda kwaye ezinye izinto kulindeleke ukuba zikhawulezise utshintsho oluluhlaza nolunekhabhoni ephantsi, ingxelo ibeke phambili iindlela ezine zophuhliso lwamandla kwihlabathi liphela, kwaye iqikelela uphuhliso oluphantsi lwekhabhoni ukuya kutsho ngo-2050.
Ingxelo ibonisa ukuba kwixesha elifutshane, amafutha efosili aza kudlala indima ebalulekileyo kwinkqubo yotshintsho lwamandla, kodwa ukunqongophala kwamandla kwihlabathi liphela, ukwanda okuqhubekayo kokukhutshwa kwekhabhoni kunye nokuvela rhoqo kwemozulu embi kuya kukhawulezisa utshintsho lwamandla oluhlaza kwihlabathi liphela kunye notshintsho oluphantsi lwekhabhoni. Utshintsho olusebenzayo kufuneka lujongane ngaxeshanye nokhuseleko lwamandla, ukufikeleleka kunye nokuzinza; Ikamva lamandla ehlabathi liza kubonisa iindlela ezine eziphambili: indima enciphayo yamandla e-hydrocarbon, uphuhliso olukhawulezileyo lwamandla ahlaziyekayo, izinga elandayo lokufakelwa kombane, kunye nokukhula okuqhubekayo kokusetyenziswa kwe-hydrocarbon ephantsi.
Ingxelo icinga ukuba iinkqubo zamandla ziya kuguquka ukuya kuthi ga ngo-2050 phantsi kweemeko ezintathu: utshintsho olukhawulezileyo, i-net zero kunye namandla amatsha. Ingxelo icebisa ukuba phantsi kwemeko yotshintsho olukhawulezileyo, ukukhutshwa kwekhabhoni kuya kuncitshiswa malunga ne-75%; Kwimeko ye-net zero, ukukhutshwa kwekhabhoni kuya kuncitshiswa ngaphezulu kwe-95; Phantsi kwemeko entsha enamandla (ecinga ukuba imeko iyonke yophuhliso lwamandla ehlabathi kwiminyaka emihlanu edlulileyo, kubandakanya inkqubela phambili yetekhnoloji, ukunciphisa iindleko, njl.njl., kunye nokuqina komgaqo-nkqubo wehlabathi kuya kuhlala kungatshintshanga kwiminyaka emihlanu ukuya kwengama-30 ezayo), ukukhutshwa kwekhabhoni kwihlabathi kuya kufikelela kwinqanaba eliphezulu kwiminyaka yoo-2020 kwaye kuncitshiswe ukukhutshwa kwekhabhoni kwihlabathi malunga ne-30% ngo-2050 xa kuthelekiswa no-2019.
Ingxelo ithi iihydrocarbons eziphantsi zidlala indima ebalulekileyo ekutshintsheni kwamandla anekhabhoni ephantsi, ingakumbi kumashishini, ezothutho nakwamanye amacandelo anzima ukuwasebenzisa ngombane. I-hydrogen eluhlaza kunye ne-hydrogen eluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka zezona hydrocarbon ziphantsi kakhulu, kwaye ukubaluleka kwe-hydrogen eluhlaza kuya kuphucuka ngenkqubo yokuguqulwa kwamandla. Urhwebo lwe-hydrogen lubandakanya urhwebo lwemibhobho yengingqi yokuthutha i-hydrogen ecocekileyo kunye norhwebo lwaselwandle lwezinto eziphuma kwi-hydrogen.
Ingxelo iqikelela ukuba ngo-2030, phantsi kotshintsho olukhawulezileyo kunye neemeko ze-zero, imfuno ephantsi yeehydrocarbon iya kufikelela kwi-30 yezigidi zeetoni ngonyaka kunye ne-50 yezigidi zeetoni ngonyaka, ngokwahlukeneyo, uninzi lwezi hydrocarbon ziphantsi zisetyenziswa njengemithombo yamandla kunye neearhente zokunciphisa izimboni ukuze zithathe indawo yegesi yendalo, i-hydrogen esekwe kumalahle (esetyenziswa njengezinto zokwenza imveliso zoshishino zokucocwa, ukuvelisa i-ammonia kunye ne-methanol) kunye namalahle. Ezinye ziya kusetyenziswa kwiikhemikhali kunye nemveliso yesamente.
Ngowama-2050, imveliso yentsimbi iya kusebenzisa malunga nama-40% emfuno iyonke ye-hydrocarbon ephantsi kwicandelo lezoshishino, kwaye phantsi kotshintsho olukhawulezileyo kunye neemeko ze-zero zero, ii-hydrocarbons eziphantsi ziya kubalelwa malunga ne-5% kunye ne-10% yokusetyenziswa kwamandla iyonke, ngokwahlukeneyo.
Ingxelo ikwaqikelela ukuba, phantsi kweemeko zotshintsho olukhawulezileyo kunye neemeko ze-zero ze-intanethi, izinto eziphuma kwi-hydrogen ziza kubalelwa kwi-10% kunye ne-30% yemfuno yamandla okuhamba ngenqwelomoya kunye ne-30% kunye ne-55% yemfuno yamandla aselwandle, ngokwahlukeneyo, ngo-2050, uninzi lwazo zonke eziseleyo ziya kwicandelo lezothutho olunzima; Ngo-2050, isimbuku see-hydrocarbons eziphantsi kunye nezinto eziphuma kwi-hydrogen ziza kubalelwa kwi-10% kunye ne-20% yamandla apheleleyo asetyenziswa kwicandelo lezothutho, ngokwahlukeneyo, phantsi kweemeko zotshintsho olukhawulezileyo kunye neemeko ze-zero ze-intanethi.
Okwangoku, ixabiso le-hydrogen eluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka lidla ngokuba liphantsi kunele-hydrogen eluhlaza kwiindawo ezininzi zehlabathi, kodwa umahluko weendleko uya kuncipha kancinci kancinci njengoko ubuchwepheshe bokuvelisa i-hydrogen eluhlaza buqhubela phambili, ukusebenza kakuhle kwemveliso kuyanda kwaye ixabiso lamafutha eefosili emveli liyanda, itsho ingxelo. Phantsi kotshintsho olukhawulezileyo kunye nemeko ye-net-zero, ingxelo iqikelela ukuba i-hydrogen eluhlaza iya kubalelwa malunga nama-60 ekhulwini e-hydrocarbon ephantsi iyonke ngo-2030, inyuke iye kuma-65 ekhulwini ngo-2050.
Ingxelo ikwabonisa ukuba indlela ekuthengiswa ngayo i-hydrogen iya kwahluka ngokuxhomekeke ekusetyenzisweni kwayo. Kwizicelo ezifuna i-hydrogen ecocekileyo (ezifana neenkqubo zokufudumeza ezishushu kakhulu kwimizi-mveliso okanye ukuthuthwa kwezithuthi zendlela), imfuno ingangeniswa kwiindawo ezifanelekileyo ngemibhobho; Kwiindawo apho kufuneka khona i-hydrogen derivatives (ezifana ne-ammonia kunye ne-methanol kwiinqanawa), iindleko zothutho nge-hydrogen derivatives ziphantsi kwaye imfuno ingangeniswa kumazwe anenzuzo kakhulu kwihlabathi liphela.
Umzekelo, kwiManyano yaseYurophu, ingxelo iqikelela ukuba phantsi kotshintsho olukhawulezileyo kunye nolungekho zero, i-EU iya kuvelisa malunga ne-70% yee-hydrocarbons zayo eziphantsi ngo-2030, ize yehle iye kwi-60% ngo-2050. Kwi-hydrocarbons eziphantsi ezingeniswa kwamanye amazwe, malunga ne-50% ye-hydrogen ecocekileyo iya kungeniswa ngemibhobho evela eMntla Afrika nakwamanye amazwe aseYurophu (umz. iNorway, i-UK), kwaye amanye ama-50% aya kungeniswa ngolwandle kwimarike yehlabathi ngohlobo lwee-hydrogen derivatives.
Ixesha lokuthumela: Feb-06-2023