NgoJanuwari 30, iBritish Petroleum (BP) yakhupha ingxelo ye-2023 "World Energy Outlook", igxininisa ukuba amafutha efosili ngexesha elifutshane abaluleke kakhulu kutshintsho lwamandla, kodwa ukunqongophala konikezelo lwamandla ehlabathi, ukukhutshwa kwekhabhoni kuyaqhubeka nokukhula kunye nezinye izinto ezilindeleke ukuba zikhawulezise utshintsho oluluhlaza kunye nekhabhoni ephantsi, ingxelo ibeke phambili iindlela ezine zophuhliso lwekhabhoni ephantsi, kunye ne-50 yophuhliso lwamandla ehlabathi.
Ingxelo ibonisa ukuba kwixesha elifutshane, i-fuel fuels iya kudlala indima ebalulekileyo kwinkqubo yokuguqulwa kwamandla, kodwa ukunqongophala kwamandla kwihlabathi jikelele, ukwanda okuqhubekayo kokukhutshwa kwekhabhoni kunye nokuvela rhoqo kwemozulu embi kuya kukhawulezisa inguqu yamandla aluhlaza kunye nekhabhoni ephantsi. Utshintsho olusebenzayo lufuna ngaxeshanye ukujongana nokhuseleko lwamandla, ukufikeleleka kunye nokuzinza; Ikamva lamandla ehlabathi liza kubonisa iindlela ezine eziphambili: indima ehlayo yamandla e-hydrocarbon, uphuhliso olukhawulezayo lwamandla ahlaziyekayo, ukunyuka kweqondo lokufakelwa kombane, kunye nokukhula okuqhubekayo kokusetyenziswa kwe-hydrocarbon ephantsi.
Ingxelo ithatha ukuvela kweenkqubo zamandla nge-2050 phantsi kweemeko ezintathu: inguqu ekhawulezileyo, i-net zero kunye namandla amatsha. Ingxelo icebisa ukuba phantsi kwemeko yenguqu ekhawulezileyo, ukukhutshwa kwekhabhoni kuya kuncitshiswa malunga ne-75%; Kwimeko ye-net-zero, ukukhutshwa kwekhabhoni kuya kuncitshiswa ngaphezu kwe-95; Ngaphantsi kwemeko entsha eguquguqukayo (ecinga ukuba yonke imeko yophuhliso lwamandla ehlabathi kwiminyaka emihlanu edlulileyo, kubandakanywa inkqubela phambili yezobuchwepheshe, ukunciphisa iindleko, njl., kunye nokuqina komgaqo-nkqubo wehlabathi jikelele kuya kuhlala kungatshintshi kwiminyaka emihlanu ukuya kwengama-30 ezayo), ukukhutshwa kwekhabhoni yehlabathi kuya kunyuka ngo-2020 kwaye kunciphise ukukhutshwa kwekhabhoni yehlabathi malunga ne-2050% xa kuthelekiswa ne-20509.
Ingxelo ithi i-hydrocarbons ephantsi idlala indima ephambili kwinguqu yamandla ekhabhoni ephantsi, ngakumbi kumashishini, ezothutho kunye namanye amacandelo ekunzima ukuwafaka umbane. I-hydrogen eluhlaza kunye ne-blue hydrogen yiyona hydrocarbon ephantsi, kwaye ukubaluleka kwe-hydrogen eluhlaza kuya kuphuculwa ngenkqubo yokuguqulwa kwamandla. Urhwebo ngeHydrojeni lubandakanya urhwebo lwemibhobho yengingqi yokuthutha i-hydrogen esulungekileyo kunye norhwebo lwaselwandle kwizinto eziphuma kwi-hydrogen.
Ingxelo iqikelele ukuba ngo-2030, phantsi kotshintsho olukhawulezileyo kunye neemeko ze-zero, imfuno ephantsi ye-hydrocarbon iya kufikelela kwi-30 yezigidi zeetoni / ngonyaka kunye ne-50 yezigidi zeetoni / ngonyaka, ngokulandelelana, kunye noninzi lwala ma-hydrocarbons aphantsi asetyenziswa njengemithombo yamandla kunye nee-arhente zokunciphisa i-industrial ukuba zithathe indawo yegesi yendalo, i-hydrogen-based based raw, i-hydrogen esekelwe kwi-industrial kunye ne-hydrogen methanol) kunye namalahle. Intsalela iya kusetyenziswa kwimichiza nakwimveliso yesamente.
Ngo-2050, imveliso yensimbi iya kusebenzisa malunga ne-40% yemfuno ephantsi ye-hydrocarbon ephantsi kwicandelo lezoshishino, kwaye phantsi kweenguqu ezikhawulezayo kunye ne-net zero scenarios, i-hydrocarbons ephantsi iya kwenza malunga ne-5% kunye ne-10% yokusetyenziswa kwamandla onke, ngokulandelanayo.
Ingxelo iphinda iqikelele ukuba, phantsi kweenguqu ezikhawulezayo kunye neemeko ze-net zero, i-hydrogen derivatives iya kuba ne-10 yeepesenti kunye ne-30 yeepesenti yemfuno yamandla omoya kunye neepesenti ze-30 kunye neepesenti ze-55 zemfuno yamandla olwandle, ngokulandelanayo, ngo-2050, kunye neyona ndlela ininzi yezothutho zendlela; Ngo-2050, isixa se-hydrocarbons ephantsi kunye ne-hydrogen derivatives iya kuba ne-10% kunye ne-20% yokusetyenziswa kwamandla apheleleyo kwicandelo lezothutho, ngokulandelanayo, phantsi kwenguqu ekhawulezayo kunye ne-net zero scenarios.
Okwangoku, ixabiso le-hydrogen eluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka lihlala lisezantsi kunelo le-hydrogen eluhlaza kwiindawo ezininzi zehlabathi, kodwa umahluko weendleko uya kuncipha ngokuthe ngcembe njengoko iteknoloji yokuvelisa i-hydrogen eluhlaza iqhubela phambili, ukunyuka kwemveliso kunyuka kunye nexabiso le-fossil yendabuko linyuka, ingxelo yatsho. Ngaphantsi kwenguqu ekhawulezileyo kunye ne-net-zero imeko, ingxelo iqikelela ukuba i-hydrogen eluhlaza iya kuphendula malunga neepesenti ezingama-60 ze-hydrocarbon ephantsi iyonke ngo-2030, inyuke iye kuma-65 ekhulwini ngo-2050.
Ingxelo iphinda ibonise ukuba indlela i-hydrogen ethengiswa ngayo iya kuhluka ngokuxhomekeke ekusetyenzisweni kokugqibela. Kwizicelo ezifuna i-hydrogen ecocekileyo (njengeenkqubo zokufudumeza eziphezulu kwimizi-mveliso okanye ukuthutha isithuthi sendlela), imfuno inokungeniswa kwiindawo ezifanelekileyo ngokusebenzisa imibhobho; Kwiindawo apho izinto eziphuma kwihydrogen zifuneka khona (ezifana neammonia kunye nemethanol kwiinqanawa), ixabiso lothutho ngezinto zehydrogen liphantsi ngokwentelekiso kwaye imfuno inokungeniswa kwamanye amazwe ukusuka kwelona lizwe lixhaphake kakhulu kwihlabathi jikelele.
Kwi-European Union, umzekelo, ingxelo iqikelela ukuba phantsi kwenguqu ekhawulezileyo kunye ne-net-zero, i-EU iya kuvelisa malunga ne-70% yee-hydrocarbons zayo eziphantsi ngo-2030, ziwela kwi-60% ngo-2050. Kwi-low hydrocarbon imports, malunga neepesenti ze-50 zemibhobho ye-hydrogen ecocekileyo evela eNyakatho ye-Afrika kunye namanye amazwe aseYurophu aya kuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe aseNyakatho Afrika naseNorway. Iipesenti ezingama-50 ziya kuthunyelwa ngolwandle kwimarike yehlabathi ngendlela yeemveliso ze-hydrogen.
Ixesha lokuposa: Feb-06-2023